|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's range||11.77 - 11.82|
|52-week range||11.65 - 13.11|
|PE ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense ratio (net)||0.25%|
Fresh Sell-Off Hits Gold: Is $1,200 the Next Stop? Investors, market participants, and analysts have been puzzled by gold’s weakness in recent months despite escalating trade war tensions and geopolitical risks. The Fed’s aggressive stance on interest rate hikes has also been weighing on gold.
Many investors might seek to buy gold at a discounted price while some risk aggressive investors want to short gold for the near term via ETFs.
Gold prices (IAU) have been on a losing spree since mid-April due to the US dollar’s strength and diverging monetary policies in the United States (IVV) and the rest of the world. During the congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave an upbeat assessment of the US (VOO) economy. The assets are attractive when interest rates (TLT) are high because gold doesn’t generate any income.
A record number of fund managers in the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) July survey believe that gold (GLD) (IAU) is undervalued. About 17% of them said gold was trading below its actual market worth, and 25% said oil (USO) is overvalued.
Gold tested the low end of its trading range in May. As gold has shown price weakness ahead of Fed rate increases, we expect gold to continue to drift around the bottom of the range until the expected rate increase on June 12. Futures positioning and flows into gold bullion exchange traded products suggest gold is poised for another post-Fed meeting rally. The immediate challenge comes from strong economic growth and robust jobs numbers that bolster the case for higher interest rates.
The second half of 2018 should be very interesting for the gold market. The chart shows the gold price has formed a wedge or pennant pattern that has been in place for several years. The positive aspect of this pattern is the trend of higher lows.
Oil prices (USO) soared ~6.0% in the week ended June 22. After its meeting on June 22, OPEC decided to raise its output. However, this increase was lower than what the markets expected.
ABN Amro believes that there is more downside to gold prices (IAU) from the current levels, although it would be temporary. The firm sees gold prices falling to $1,250 per ounce by the end of 2018 before rallying in 2019. It believes the US dollar’s (UUP) strength could the major driver of gold’s weakness in 2018.
RAAX remains fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and MLPs. As they were at launch, the largest weightings remain in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%). However, its allocation to gold equities now stands at 10%, increasing overall gold exposure to 30%.
The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) launched, on April 9, into a period of strong performance for real assets. RAAX performed well on both an absolute and relative basis. Through April, in the first 16 days of its life, RAAX returned +2.98% based on net asset value versus +2.41% for its benchmark, the Blended Real Asset Index, which is comprised of an equally weighted blend of the returns of Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P Real Assets Equity Index, and VanEck Natural Resources Index*. Equal weightings are reset monthly.
When stocks sell off, gold often shines. The stock market fell sharply Thursday after President Trump canceled the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Ray Dalio Is Holding on to Gold: Are You? As the 13F filings became available during the start of last week, much of the market buzz was about what money managers are holding and what they are staying away from. Ray Dalio held his holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Fund and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) constant.
One of the most crucial factors causing a slump in the price of precious metals is the revival of the US dollar. The DXY, which prices the dollar against a basket of six major world currencies, rose 0.68% on May 15. The DXY gained 3.8% over the last month.
Gold ETF investors bought 173.4 tons of gold in 2017, which was 9% higher year-over-year. In 2018 year-to-date, the inflows in gold-backed ETFs have been strong. In times of increased volatility, investors are repositioning their portfolios to include more gold as a volatility hedge. Expectations of a global trade war triggered by President Trump’s import tariffs could lead investors to seek a haven in gold.
In this part of the series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Alamos Gold (AGI), First Majestic Silver (AG), B2Gold (BTG), and Royal Gold (RGLD). Mining stocks generally move with gold prices. Among these four miners, Alamos Gold has shown the highest correlation with gold this year, while B2Gold has had the lowest correlation.
Lower platinum prices are a major concern for platinum miners in Africa. Platinum, like palladium, is used to cut down carbon monoxide emissions and as a catalyst in vehicle engines. It is also used in diesel-based generators. The platinum market has been in short supply for the last few years, and its deficit is expected to expand to a short supply of 275,000 ounces in 2018.
Another crucial factor behind precious metals’ rise was the US dollar index, which fell 0.42% on May 10. The DXY had gained over the last month, rising 3.4%, while gold fell 1.6%. Over the past few months, the US dollar (UUP) has been the most critical driver of gold prices.
In this part of the series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: New Gold (NGD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Hecla Mining (HL), and Kinross Gold (KGC). For the most part, mining stocks move in tandem with gold prices. Among these four miners, Newmont has shown the highest correlation with gold this year, while Hecla has shown the lowest correlation.
3. Gold stocks have yet to recover from the early February sell-off: Investors viewed the general market sell-off as an overdue correction, rather than the reemergence of systemic risks. This interpretation precluded a flight to safe havens, causing gold and especially gold stocks to sell-off with the market in early February. As a result, RBC Capital Markets notes that the gold producers are trading at a roughly 20% discount to their historic valuations.
After talking with many producers about their cost drivers, we believe cost concerns are overblown and that costs will fluctuate around the $900 level for the foreseeable future. It seems the labor market has tightened somewhat in Australia, but companies are not reporting any wage pressures In fact, BMO Capital Markets sees the all-in costs of the gold companies in their coverage universe declining 8% in 2019. In its 2018 “Gold Yearbook,” the New York–based CPM Group showed that AISCs (all-in sustaining costs) for gold mining companies (GDX)(IAU) bottomed out in 1Q16 to $871, down 27% from the peak of $1,187 in 3Q12.
There are several reasons for the underperformance: A lack of interest in safe-haven3 investments: While volatility has returned to markets this year, it has yet to reach worrying levels that might motivate investors to hedge their exposure. RBC Capital Markets reports the six-month trailing beta to gold of the VanEck Vectors® Gold Miners ETF has declined to 1.5x, compared to a historical average of 2.0x. The corresponding betas for the VanEck Vectors® Junior Gold Miners ETF is 1.7x and 2.2x, respectively. ...
Physical demand in India has been weak for a couple of years now due to import restrictions, taxation, and currency changes. While we wait for favorable developments from India, the positive trend in prices has been driven by investment demand for gold bullion exchange traded products (ETPs). According to the WGC (World Gold Council), though gold (SGOL) demand in India increased 9% in 2017 to 727 tons, it was much less than the average five-year demand of 810 tons.
Depressed platinum prices are a major concern for platinum miners in Africa. Platinum, like palladium, is used to cut down carbon monoxide emissions and as an autocatalyst in vehicle engines. The platinum market has been in short supply for the last few years.