Why Taiwan's election result prompted Asian nations to speak up on 'one China'

When Tsai Ing-wen won her second term as Taiwan's president four years ago, the island's neighbours said little.

As usual Japan, Singapore and Australia offered Tsai their congratulations but there was barely a murmur from other countries.

However, William Lai Ching-te's closely watched victory in the Taiwanese presidential election last weekend stirred a wave of diplomatic activity in the Indo-Pacific region.

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Again, Singapore, Japan and Australia congratulated the winner, with Japan going a step further to call Taiwan "an extremely crucial partner", instead of "an important partner" as it did four years ago.

South Korea took a middle-ground approach and "expressed hope to see peace and stability maintained across the Taiwan Strait".

But dozens of countries - including Asean members Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam - were quick to reaffirm their one-China policy after Lai, the man branded by Beijing as a "troublemaker", came in ahead of his two rivals for the presidency.

Analysts said the unusual show of support for the policy signalled a desire within much of the region for stability across the Taiwan Strait. But it also highlighted a geopolitical divide between US-led allies and Southeast Asian countries on the issue.

Ma Jianying, an associate professor at Shandong University, said the response this year was "a stark contrast" to the past, with various countries "choosing sides" on the Taiwan issue.

Ma said US partners in the region were endorsing the "independence-inclined" winner of the election to rock cross-strait relations to try to deter investment in China.

A military conflict in the waters between mainland China and Taiwan could disrupt regional trade and ripple out to neighbouring countries, particularly to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, Beijing's biggest trading partner on a regional basis last year.

A university professor in mainland China, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter, said Southeast Asian countries were trying to balance assurance to Beijing with concern about conflict.

Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but do maintain cultural, economic and other non-official ties with the self-ruled island.

The professor said that amid wars in Ukraine and Gaza as well as heightened tensions in the Red Sea, these "neighbouring countries do not want another war [in the region]".

"So by reasserting the one-China policy, they were sending the message that the one-China policy is noted, so Beijing does not have to worry, because our largest interest is with China," he said.

At the same time they were "concerned about [peace in the Taiwan Strait] and will have to maintain our relationship with Taipei ... but it is unofficial".

Kei Koga, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said most Southeast Asian countries did not expect Lai's win to immediately lead to tension or conflict.

Nevertheless, by reaffirming the one-China policy, they were sending diplomatic signals to "mitigate the tension and not to deteriorate their relations with China".

The Philippines, a US treaty ally and Asean member, charted its own course.

It stood by its one-China policy but President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr also congratulated Lai and referred to him as the "next president".

In addition, Marcos expressed hopes of "close collaboration, strengthening mutual interests, fostering peace and ensuring prosperity for our peoples in the years ahead" with Taiwan.

Jay Batongbacal, an associate professor of maritime affairs and law at the University of the Philippines, agreed that many countries were seeking to reassure Beijing and express concern about potential conflict.

Batongbacal said Manila's approach involved "ambivalence and hedging", signalling that "despite everything, Taiwan is important enough to the Philippines and Philippine interests that it cannot be simply dismissed and ignored as a non-factor in their relations".

"The Philippines is the next closest country to Taiwan. Any humanitarian crisis that arises out of a conflict situation will spill over to the Philippines first," he said, adding that they would jeopardise Philippine maritime and business interests.

Meanwhile, Japan was saying that as Taiwan faced diplomatic and security challenges, Tokyo "would do whatever it can as long as it would not violate the 1972 Japan-China Joint Communique", Koga said, referring to the agreement underpinning normalised relations between the two countries.

One of the strongest diplomatic signals came from the Pacific Island nation of Nauru. It severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan two days after the presidential election, leaving the self-ruled island with 12 formal allies.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.