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Why Is Macerich (MAC) Up 7.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Macerich (MAC). Shares have added about 7.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Macerich due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Macerich Q1 FFO Miss Estimates, Revenues Fall Y/Y

Macerich reported FFO per share, excluding financing expense in relation to Chandler Freehold, of 31 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents. Moreover, the figure declined 22.5% from the year-ago quarter’s 40 cents.

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Results reflected a year-over-year fall in quarterly revenues. This retail REIT also experienced a decline in same-center NOI, including lease termination income, from the prior-year period.

Quarterly revenues of $208.8 million were lower than the year-ago quarter’s $214.9 million. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $217.3 million.

Behind the Headlines

The portfolio tenant sales per square foot for spaces less than 10,000 square feet in the trailing 12 months ended Mar 31, 2024, came in at $837, down from $866 for the same period ended Mar 31, 2023.

However, during the reported quarter, Macerich signed leases encompassing 1.04 million square feet. On a comparable center basis, this reflected a 14% increase in the amount of square footage signed year over year.

As of Mar 31, 2024, portfolio occupancy was 93.4%, up from 92.2% as of Mar 31, 2023. Our expectation for the portfolio occupancy was the same as reported.

For the 12 months ended Mar 31, 2024, base rent re-leasing spreads were 14.7% more than the expiring base rent.

Same-center NOI, including lease termination income, decreased 2.3% year over year to $189.5 million. Our expectation for the same was pegged at $202.9 million.

Balance Sheet

As of Apr 30, 2024, Macerich had around $640 million of liquidity. This included $465 million of available capacity on its $650 million revolving line of credit.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, Macerich has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Macerich has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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