What do VCs really want from the Fed?

How do interest rates make you feel? It’s a tongue-in-cheek question that solicits serious responses.

On Wednesday, not only did the Federal Reserve hold off on cutting rates, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts were unlikely in March, too. The Dow subsequently nosedived 300 points (predictably enough). And as Term Sheet talks to VCs from its private markets perch, it’s clear that there’s lots of interest rate consternation here, too.

What will it actually take from the Fed for the VC industry to say "we're back”?

No one totally agrees, and the stage you’re operating at matters as much (if not more) than ever. For example, for early stage dealmakers, too much focus on interest rates could even be a “distraction” when you’re betting on a startup’s long-term potential and settling into an investment for the long haul, said Bison VC partner Ben Hemani.

“Interest rates have dramatically shifted the total dollars focused on venture,” he said. “But it doesn't have anything to do with the underlying innovation cycles…I don't think it's appropriate to say it doesn't matter, but it’s the wrong point for an early stage venture capital fund to be focused on.”

However, if you’re a later stage investor, you’re dealing with a whole other can of worms. For G Squared managing partner Larry Aschebrook, a smoke signal from Powell isn’t going to cut it.

“You need multiple cuts that, to me, will signal that they're comfortable with the direction we’re headed,” he said.

For Steven Rosenblatt, Oceans Ventures cofounder and general partner, we need to buckle up for a long-term change. The days of easy money are, quite simply, over.

“Interest rates aren’t coming close to where they were the last ten to 15 years,” he said. “Even when the Fed cuts, we’re all going to have to get used to a world where the money supply is much tighter…It’s going to be a much slower pace.”

Per previous Fed signals, rate cuts are still likely this year—and make no mistake, when that happens “it’ll be a boost to the equity markets, and positive sentiment will trickle through and increase confidence,” Union Square Advisors head of M&A Wayne Kawarabayashi told me. And it’s not like the interim isn’t providing a necessary correction, either—just a painful one.

“The last couple of years have weeded out companies that were weaker, and some good resetting did happen,” said Kamran Ansari, Headline venture partner. “Valuations are reset, the worst companies are gone, and the biggest risk factors in the venture business are now exogenous.”

Today is Groundhog Day. But it feels like we’ve been here a while, as high rates have held and the economic outlook remains dicey.

"I like to tell our LPs it's like Groundhog Day—it’s hard to tell if we’re in the middle of this environment or if we’ve got six more weeks of winter,” Aschebrook told me. “In my opinion, we’re definitely past the midpoint.”

See you Monday,

Allie Garfinkle
Twitter: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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This story was originally featured on Fortune.com