TREASURIES-US yields drop as markets fully price in Fed's rate outlook shift

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell from multi-month highs on Friday as investors consolidated positions after a week-long run-up, with the market having fully priced in the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook to a gradual easing path.

U.S. two-year yields slid from a 2-1/2-month high, while those on the three-year, five-year, and seven-year notes dropped from nearly three-month peaks.

"The shift in Fed outlooks to a less aggressive easing path has been priced in and bargain hunters, short coverers are moving in after rates cheapened to multi-month highs," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco.

A combination of less dovish comments from the Fed late on Thursday and those from European Central Bank officials earlier on Friday helped push Treasury yields higher, before they faded and traded lower.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that relatively benign fourth-quarter wage growth data are "encouraging" but not yet enough to give the central bank the confidence that inflation has been defeated.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, backed Largarde's view. He said the ECB should resist the temptation to cut interest rates early.

Their remarks pushed euro zone yields higher and spilled over to Treasuries.

Comments from Fed officials all week suggested the U.S. central bank will take its time in cutting interest rates to make sure that inflation falls to its 2% target on a sustainable basis.

As a result, the rate futures market has also reduced expectations of the number of rate cuts to three this year, with the start of the easing cycle possibly commencing in June or later, according to LSEG's rate probability app.

In late morning trading, the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield was down 6.3 basis points (bps) to 4.263%. The 10-year yield was on track to post its third straight weekly gain.

U.S. 30-year bond yields fell 7.6 bps to 4.386%, on pace as well to rise for a third consecutive week.

On the shorter-end of the curve, U.S. two-year yields slipped 2.4 bps to 4.689%. Earlier in the session, they hit 4.59%, the highest level since Dec. 11.

Investors are also focused on next week's heavy Treasury debt supply. The U.S. Treasury on Monday will sell $63 billion in two-year notes and $64 billion in five-year notes. Both are all-time highs in terms of volume. On Tuesday, the Treasury will auction $42 billion in U.S. seven-year notes.

"With all that supply, it's going to be tough for the market to go lower in yields," said Tom di Galoma, managing director and co-head of global rates trading at BTIG. "I like buying the market on back-ups in yields just because at some point the Fed will pivot and rates will be lower." (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Paul Simao)