Yahoo Finance Social Security was a key issue in the fight for New Hampshire. Expect that to continue until November.
Throughout the frenzied final days of the contest between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, Social Security was one of the most prominent issues on the airwaves.
That could be a preview of what to expect over the 285 days to come in the 2024 campaign as the presidential race now likely begins to shift in earnest towards another head-to-head contest between Trump and President Joe Biden.
Both sides of that contest appear eager to make Social Security front and center.
In the Granite State, the Trump campaign chose to spend heavily on a fact-checked television spot that was clearly designed not as a way to energize Trump's base but instead to muddy the waters among the moderate and independent voters inclined to Haley, the former South Carolina governor.
"Americans were promised a secure retirement. Nikki Haley's plan ends that," the Trump ad ominously intoned. The ad was especially notable for where it was seen, with airtime being purchased before liberal-leaning audiences on outlets like MSNBC.
The tactic seems to have had an effect with Trump cruising to a double-digit victory Tuesday night and tightening his grip as the likely GOP nominee.
Haley for her part was forced to parry questions on the issue from voters, with her frustration evident at times. "Trump has lied on TV and spent millions, saying I want to cut Social Security, which I never said," she said in evident exasperation during a Fox News interview on primary day.
Social Security is likely to only grow in importance as a fight for moderate voters gets underway throughout 2024.
A Trump campaign focused on the issue
During his last rally before Tuesday's voting, Trump declared that the results would be a signal "that the Republican Party is never going to go back to those days of weak establishment candidates who preach cutting Medicare and Social Security at home while they spend trillions and trillions of dollars on endless wars all over the place."
It was a culmination of a New Hampshire campaign that was highly focused on this issue before the older electorate in the state. According to a media exit poll, nearly one-third of voters that turned out Tuesday were over age 65. Trump won that cohort, as he did with all age groups.
In fact, Trump's final wave of spending focused largely on just two issues: retirement benefits and immigration.
But Trump's attacks were also challenged by fact checkers. They noted that while Haley is indeed the only candidate left in the race willing to discuss benefit cuts to the safety-net program, Trump's attacks omit that Haley has consistently said her plan would only apply to Americans currently in their 20s and 30s.
The ad also claims without any backing that Haley's cuts would affect 82% of Americans, which Politifact called an "extreme exaggeration."
Social Security as an issue 'President Biden is running on in this election'
Trump's focus on the issue has also been matched by a team behind Biden that would also clearly relish a battle over retirement benefits throughout 2024.
A call with top Biden aides Wednesday morning made clear yet again that this will be on the top tier of issues.
Trump "wants to use his presidency to cut the programs that hard-working Americans rely on the most," said former Congressman Cedric Richmond, President Biden's 2024 campaign co-chairman, during his remarks to reporters.
"He tried to slash Medicare and Social Security programs every year he was in office: I was there to watch and to oppose," he added.
The comment was in response to budgets proposed by Trump from 2017-2020 that did include potential cuts to Social Security.
"These are the issues that Democrats have won on since 2017 and they are issues that President Biden is running on in this election," Richmond added Wednesday morning.
Little focus on how to avert a looming insolvency crisis for the program
But less clear so far is a concrete plan from either Biden or Trump about how they would stave off a looming insolvency to the program.
A recent government trustees report found that Social Security only has the funds to continue paying out 100% of benefits through 2034. After that, benefits could be decreased by over 20% with experts warning that balancing the books becomes a more difficult task with every passing year.
Marc Goldwein, policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned in a recent briefing that "this is a very near-term problem and one that if the next president doesn’t address — we may not be able to address at all."
Trump — in spite of expressing openness to ideas around shifting the retirement age in recent years and even privatization in a 2000 book — has now fully distanced himself from any such efforts.
His 2024 plan is to drill for more oil as a way to make up the shortfall. He says there is "liquid gold" beneath America's feet to pay Social Security benefits but offers few specifics on how that would actually work.
On the Democratic side, President Biden has focused more on ideas to increase taxes to cover the shortfall but has been more eager to criticize any Republican who is willing to discuss benefit cuts. He offered a memorable Social Security challenge to the GOP during his State of the Union address last year.
In any case, the issue is likely to remain central for the coming months as both parties try and convince moderates that the retirement program would only be safe in their hands.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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