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Singapore returns to growth in third quarter, averting recession

Pedestrians on Orchard Road in Singapore, on Monday, Aug. 22, 2022. Singapore announces its consumer price index (CPI) figures on Aug. 23. Photographer: Ore Huiying/Bloomberg
Pedestrians on Orchard Road in Singapore, on Monday, Aug. 22, 2022. Singapore announces its consumer price index (CPI) figures on Aug. 23. Photographer: Ore Huiying/Bloomberg (Bloomberg)

By Michelle Jamrisko

(Bloomberg) — Singapore’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter, averting a recession while showing the fragility of post-pandemic prospects as the world outlook darkens.

Gross domestic product in the three months through September rose 1.5% from the previous quarter, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement Friday. That’s faster than the median estimate for a 0.7% expansion in a Bloomberg survey.

On a year-on-year basis, the economy expanded 4.4% after a revised 4.5% growth in the previous quarter. Survey respondents had predicted a 3.5% growth.

Other details from the GDP print:

  • Manufacturing +1.5% year-on-year, after +5.7% in the previous quarter

  • Construction +7.8%, after +4.8%

  • Services industries +6.1%, after +4.8%

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The trade-reliant city-state, which leaned on its financial services industry for growth support during the pandemic, is now seeing recovery in more sectors including food and beverage and hospitality after a full post-COVID reopening.

Even so, Singapore’s exposure to the global economy means slowdowns in China and Europe, the Federal Reserve-led interest-rate hikes, and supply-chain bottlenecks pose growth risks.

Officials convening in Washington this week for meetings organized by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have painted a bleaker picture of the global outlook, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicting one-third of the world economy will see recession this year and the next. She warned that global output could decline by $4 trillion through 2026 — roughly the size of the German economy.

In August, the MTI narrowed the full-year projection to a range of 3%-4% from a 3%-5% prior estimate.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.