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Singapore core inflation eases to one-year low of 4.2% in June

A customer pays for fresh produce at Tekka Center in Singapore, on Saturday, April 22, 2023. (Edwin Koo/Bloomberg)
A customer pays for fresh produce at Tekka Center in Singapore, on Saturday, April 22, 2023. (Edwin Koo/Bloomberg) (Bloomberg)

By Kevin Varley

(Bloomberg) — Singapore’s core inflation rate cooled in June to the lowest level in little over a year as import costs continued to decline.

The core measure, which excludes housing and private transportation costs and is watched by the central bank to determine policy settings, came in at 4.2% from a year earlier, official data showed Monday. That matched the prediction in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Sources: Department of Statistics, Monetary Authority of Singapore

“Global supply chain frictions, energy and food commodity prices have moderated,” according to a joint statement from the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Monday. “Consumer price inflation in Singapore’s major trading partners have also been on an easing trend. As a result, prices of Singapore’s imported goods continue to decline in year-on-year terms.”

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The reading supports expectations that monetary policymakers will likely stand pat at least for the near term to support the trade-reliant economy which averted a technical recession last quarter, but still showed signs of below-trend growth with exports contracting for nine straight months through June. The MAS, which uses the exchange rate as its main policy tool, already paused tightening in April after five moves since October 2021.

All-items inflation cooled to a 16-month low of 4.5% in June, after a 5.1% reading in May. For 2023, headline and core inflation are projected to average 4.5%–5.5% and 3.5%–4.5%, respectively, the authorities said in the statement, reiterating a projection shared by MAS Managing Director Ravi Menon earlier this month.

Other details from Monday’s print:

  • Food prices rose 5.9% from a year ago

  • Housing and utilities gained 4.3% year-on-year, the slowest pace since February 2022

  • Transport costs increased 4.6%, the slowest since February 2021

Given the higher premiums for the right to buy cars under the so-called certificate of entitlement and an increase in housing units available for rental, authorities expect private transport and accommodation inflation to moderate over the course of the year.

© 2023 Bloomberg L.P.