'Rising East, declining West' a popular view in China, but Hong Kong tycoon urges caution

China should remain level-headed in assessing its strengths and weaknesses to navigate geopolitical shifts and its rivalry with the United States, according to a Hong Kong tycoon.

Ronnie Chan Chi-chung, honorary chairman of Hang Lung Properties and chairman of the Asia Society Hong Kong Centre, said that the US has shown signs of retreating to isolationism. He added that the country is "at war with itself", with domestic political infighting and the uncertainties of Donald Trump's potential return to the White House next year.

However, "the fact that the US may be moving toward isolationism does not in any way imply that America is waning. Absolutely not," Chan said, speaking at an event held by the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing on Friday.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

He said the US still had dominance and strength in research capabilities, tech prowess and entrepreneurship, along with a strong capital market and resilient economy.

"A lot of people in this country [China] are now talking about the East rising and the West falling. I'd say be careful of what you say," he said.

The phrase "the East is rising and the West declining" has gained traction in recent years to describe Beijing's view of the post-pandemic world as China has grown more confident in its ascent.

But some experts have cautioned against the narrative, saying that China still faces headwinds as its rivalry with the US escalates.

China has ramped up efforts to salvage its ailing property sector and minimise its drag on the overall economy. It is trying to revitalise private business, the backbone of job creation and innovation, and steer growth based on high value-added and advanced manufacturing.

Additional uncertainties also arise from China's souring relations with the US and the European Union, two of its three biggest trading partners.

Li Daokui, a professor of economics at Tsinghua University, said at the same event that top leaders were likely to unveil "big" policies to cure economic pains and drive growth.

China is trying to salvage its ailing property sector and minimise its drag on the economy. Photo: AFP alt=China is trying to salvage its ailing property sector and minimise its drag on the economy. Photo: AFP>

Communist Party elites will assemble in July for the third plenary session, a crucial political event to set out an economic and reform strategy for the next five to 10 years, which will be decisive for Beijing's grand plan to become an economic, technological and military superpower.

Li, director of Tsinghua's Academic Centre for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, said economic growth was now below its growth potential of 5.7 to 5.8 per cent.

Measures are needed to address real estate distress, and the government needs to find incentives for local governments to shift from production to consumption, he said.

Chan cautioned against too much optimism about the global economic and geopolitical situation and suggested precautions were needed.

"The world is in a considerably challenging position, and we'd better be ready for cascading changes," he said.

"I feel for the next 10 years it will be a decade that is the most consequential in the world."

Chan also said there would be no winner in a US-China conflict, but both sides could lose.

"By not losing, you wait for the other to punch, and that is the sad game that they were playing. My personal assessment is that it is not how many punches you can throw, it is how many punches you can accept," he said.

Describing himself as an internationalist, Chan said he wanted to see the US and China live together peacefully.

"But if one side does not want it, there is nothing we can do, especially when one side is stronger and more powerful."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.