Q3 2024 Micron Technology Inc Earnings Call

Participants

Satya Kumar; Vice President of Investor Relations & Treasury; Micron Technology Inc

Sanjay Mehrotra; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Micron Technology Inc

Mark Murphy; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; Micron Technology Inc

Krish Sankar; Analyst; TD Cowen

Vivek Arya; Analyst; BofA Global Research

Toshiya Hari; Analyst; Goldman Sachs Research

Thomas O'Malley; Analyst; Barclays

Christopher Danely; Analyst; Citi

Harlan Sur; Analyst; JPMorgan

Presentation

Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Micron Technology's fiscal third-quarter 2024 financial results conference mode. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.
And now, I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Satya Kumar, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Satya Kumar

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's fiscal third-quarter 2024 financial conference call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our president and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO.
Today’s call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com, including audio and slides. In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website, along with the prepared remarks for this call.
Today’s discussion of financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website.
We encourage you to visit our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on financial conferences that we may be attending. You can also follow us on X at MicronTech.
As a reminder, the matters we are discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding marketdemand and supply, market and pricing trends and drivers, the impact of new technologies such as AI,product ramp plans and market position, our expected results and guidance, and other matters. Theseforward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differmaterially from statements made today.
We refer you to the documents we file with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-Q and upcoming 10-Q, for a discussion of risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance, or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.
With that, let me turn the call over to Sanjay.

Sanjay Mehrotra

Thank you, Satya. Good afternoon, everyone.
I am pleased to report that Micron delivered fiscal Q3 revenue, gross margin, and EPS all above the high end of guidance ranges. Micron drove robust price increases as industry supply-demand conditions continued to improve. This improved pricing, combined with our strengthening product mix, resulted in increased profitability across all our end markets.
In data center, rapidly growing AI demand enabled us to grow our revenue by over 50% on a sequential basis. And we grew share in high-margin, AI-related product categories such as HBM, high-capacity DIMMs, and data center SSDs.
Our mix of data center revenue is on track to reach record levels in fiscal 2024 and to grow significantly from there in fiscal 2025.
Robust AI-driven demand for data center products is causing tightness on our leading-edge nodes. consequently, we expect continued price increases throughout calendar 2024 despite only steady near-term demand in PCs and smartphones.
As we look ahead to 2025, demand for AI PCs and AI smartphones and continued growth of AI in the data center create a favorable setup that gives us confidence that we can deliver a substantial revenue record in fiscal 2025, with significantly improved profitability underpinned by our ongoing portfolio shift to higher-margin products.
Micron is ramping the industry’s most advanced technology nodes in both DRAM and NAND. Over 80% of our DRAM bit production is now on leading-edge 1-alpha and 1-beta nodes. Over 90% of our NAND bit production is on our two leading-edge NAND nodes.
1-gamma DRAM pilot production using extreme ultraviolet lithography is progressing well, and we are on track for volume production in calendar 2025. Our next-generation NAND node is also on track, with high-volume production planned for calendar 2025.
We experienced some operational disruptions after the recent Taiwan earthquake but were able to recover quickly, thanks to diligent efforts from Micron Taiwan team members working together with our global operations teams. Despite impacts from the earthquake, we now expect our fiscal 2024 DRAM front-end cost reductions, excluding HBM, to be in the high single-digits percentage range.
We expect our fiscal 2024 NAND front-end cost reductions to be in the low-teens percentage range. These cost reductions are supported by our industry-leading 1-beta DRAM and 232-layer NAND nodes.
During the quarter, Micron signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms, or PMT, with the USgovernment for $6.1 billion in grants under the CHIPS and Science Act. These grants support our plannedleading-edge memory manufacturing expansions in Idaho and New York.
Federal and state incentives, projected power-cost advantages, and R&D co-location synergies will enable Micron to achieve cost-competitive, leading-edge memory manufacturing in the United States when these projects reach efficient manufacturing scale. Fab construction in Idaho is underway, and we are working diligently to complete the regulatory and permitting processes in New York.
This additional leading-edge greenfield capacity, along with continued technology transition investments in our Asia facilities, is required to meet long-term demand in the second half of this decade and beyond. These investments support our objective to maintain our current bit share over time and to grow our memory bit supply in line with long-term industry bit demand. Micron retains flexibility under the PMT to manage construction and timing of supply growth in a manner that allows us to remain responsive to marketconditions.
Now turning to our end markets. We are in the early innings of a multi-year race to enable artificial general intelligence, or AGI, which will revolutionize all aspects of life, enabling AGI will require training ever-increasing model sizes with trillions of parameters and sophisticated servers for inferencing. AI will also permeate to the edge via AI PCs and AI smartphones, as well as smart automobiles and intelligent industrial systems.
These trends will drive significant growth in the demand for DRAM and NAND. And we believe that Micron will be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multi-year growth opportunity driven by AI.
Most data center customer inventories have normalized, and demand from customers continues to strengthen. PC and smartphone customers have built additional inventories due to the rising price trajectory, the anticipated growth in AI PCs and AI smartphones, as well as the expectation of tight supply as an increasing portion of DRAM and NAND output is dedicated to meeting growing data center demand. Due to expectations for continued leading-edge node tightness, we are seeing increased interest from many customers across market segments to secure 2025 long-term agreements ahead of their typical schedule.
In data center, industry server unit shipments are expected to grow in the mid to high single digits in calendar 2024, driven by strong growth for AI servers and a return to modest growth for traditional servers. Micron is well positioned with our portfolio of HBM, D5, LP5, high-capacity DIMM, CXL, and data center SSD products.
Recently, our customers have announced their long-term AI server product roadmaps, with an annual cadence of new products with significantly improved capabilities for the next several years. Micron’s technology and product leadership puts us in an excellent position to support this growth.
Customers continue to provide feedback that our HBM3E solution has 30% lower power consumption compared to competitors’ solutions. Our HBM shipment ramp began in fiscal Q3, and we generated over $100 million in HBM3E revenue in the quarter at margins accretive to DRAM and overall companymargins.
We expect to generate several hundred million dollars of revenue from HBM in fiscal 2024 and multiple billions of dollars in revenue from HBM in fiscal 2025. We expect to achieve HBM market share commensurate with our overall DRAM market share sometime in calendar 2025.
Our HBM is sold out for calendar 2024 and 2025, with pricing already contracted for the overwhelming majority of our 2025 supply.
We are making significant strides toward expanding our HBM customer base in calendar 2025, as we design-in our industry-leading HBM technology with major HBM customers. We have sampled our 12-high HBM3E product and expect to ramp it into high-volume production in calendar 2025 and increase in mix throughout 2025.
We have a robust roadmap for HBM and are confident we will maintain our technology leadership with HBM4 and HBM4E. Our next generations of HBM will provide further performance and capacity enhancements while we continue to evolve our industry-leading low-power innovations.
We achieved full validation on our 1-beta, 32-gigabit monolithic-die-based, 128GB high-capacity server DIMM products and are on track to achieve several hundred million dollars of revenue from high-capacity DIMMs in the second half of fiscal 2024. Additionally, we continue to see strong interest in our industry-leading 1-beta LPDRAM in data center applications.
Data center SSD is in the midst of a strong demand recovery as customers have worked through their 2023 inventory. Hyperscale demand is improving, driven primarily by AI training and inference infrastructure, and supplemented by the start of a recovery of traditional compute and storage infrastructure demand.
Micron is gaining share in data center SSDs as we reach new revenue and market share records in this important product category. During the quarter, we more than tripled bit shipments of our 232-layer-based 6500 30-terabyte SSDs, which offer best-in-class performance, reliability, and endurance for AI data lake applications. We continued our leadership and innovation by becoming the first NAND vendor to supply 200-plus-layer QLC for the enterprise storage market.
In PC, unit volumes remain on track to grow in the low single-digit range for calendar 2024. We are optimistic that the planned Windows 10 end of life in 2025, the launch of Windows 12, and the introduction of a new generation of AI PCs will accelerate the PC replacement cycle starting in late calendar 2024. The PC replacement cycle should gather momentum through calendar 2025 as new AI applications are rolled out.
During Computex in Taiwan, we saw several announcements of next-generation chipsets and AI PCs. These devices feature high-performance neural processing unit chipsets, and we expect these devices will have 40% to 80% more DRAM content than today’s average PC.
Microsoft’s minimum system requirement for Copilot+ PCs, such as the Surface Pro, is 16 gigabyte of DRAM. We expect next-gen AI PCs to make up a meaningful portion of total PC units in calendar 2025, growing each year until most PCs ultimately support next-gen AI PC specs. AI PCs are also likely to require higher performance and higher average capacity SSDs than traditional PCs, aligning well with our leading technology portfolio on our 232-layer NAND with our performance 3500 SSD and our industry-leading value QLC 2500 NVMe SSDs.
Turning to mobile. Smartphone unit volumes in calendar 2024 remain on track to grow in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range. Leading smartphone OEMs recently announced new AI capabilities, and we are optimistic that delivering high-quality AI experiences can accelerate the smartphone refresh cycle.
Smartphones have tremendous potential for personalized AI capabilities that offer greater security and responsiveness when executed on device. Micron's leading LP5X is enabling the recent 12-gigabyte and 16-gigabyte AI phone releases at all Android tier one customers, representing a 50% to 100% increase over last year’s flagship models.
Micron’s leading mobile solutions provide the critical performance, capacity, and power efficiency needed to unlock AI capability. Our mobile DRAM and NAND solutions are now widely adopted in industry-leading flagship smartphones.
In calendar Q1, we received recognition for being number one in quality by five of the world’s leading smartphone OEMs. Qualifications are on track for our second-generation 1-beta LP5X products, and we see broadening use of our 232-layer NAND, moving beyond flagship phones into high-capacity high- and mid-tier phones.
Turning to auto and industrial. The automotive sector continued to experience robust demand for memory and storage, and Micron achieved a record quarter for automotive revenues.
Car production volumes are returning to pre-pandemic levels. Broader adoption of intelligent digital cockpits and more advanced driver-assistance capabilities are driving content growth. We anticipate further content growth as additional intelligence, including generative AI-based technologies, is adopted in vehicles.
Micron continues to be a leader in automotive with high quality and industry-first product introductions. In the fiscal third quarter, we launched the world’s first multi-port Gen 4 NVMe SSD in support of next-generation centralized compute architectures.
In industrial and retail consumer segments, which are a smaller part of our business, we are seeing some near-term demand uncertainty from our distribution partners and end customers. We remain confident in the long-term fundamentals and growth drivers of these businesses, especially with the increasing adoption of AI in a variety of applications.
Now, turning to our market outlook. We forecast calendar 2024 bit demand growth for the industry to be in the mid-teens percentage range for both DRAM and NAND. Over the medium term, we expect industry bit demand growth CAGRs of mid-teens in DRAM and high teens in NAND.
Turning to supply. We expect calendar 2024 industry supply to be below demand for both DRAM and NAND. As discussed previously, the ramp of HBM production will constrain industry supply growth in non-HBM products.
Industry-wide, HBM3E consumes approximately three times the wafer supply as D5 to produce a given number of bits in the same technology node. With increased performance and packaging complexity, across the industry, we expect this trade ratio for HBM4 to be even higher than the trade ratio for HBM3E.
We anticipate strong HBM demand due to AI, combined with increasing silicon intensity of the HBM roadmap, to contribute to tight supply conditions for DRAM across all end markets.
As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth.
Micron’s bit supply growth in fiscal 2024 remains below our demand growth for both DRAM and NAND. Micron will continue to exercise supply and CapEx discipline and focus on improving profitability while maintaining our bit market share for DRAM and NAND.
We continue to project we will end fiscal 2024 with low double-digit percentage less wafer capacity in both DRAM and NAND than our peak levels in fiscal 2022. We intend to use our existing inventory to drive a portion of the bit growth supporting our revenue in fiscal 2025 to enable a more optimized use of our CapEx investments. Micron’s fiscal 2024 CapEx plan will be approximately $8.0 billion, and WFE spending will be down year on year in fiscal 2024.
We expect to increase our capital spending materially next year, with capex around mid-30s percentage range of revenue for fiscal 2025, which will support HBM assembly and test equipment, fab and back-end facility construction, as well as technology transition investment to support demand growth. The construction capex in the planned Idaho and New York greenfield fabs in fiscal 2025 will be half or more of the expected increase in total CapEx.
In fact, the growth in both greenfield fab construction and HBM CapEx investments is projected to make up the overwhelming majority of the year-over-year CapEx increase. These fab construction investments are necessary to support supply growth for the latter half of this decade.
This Idaho fab will not contribute to meaningful bit supply until fiscal 2027, and the New York construction CapEx is not expected to contribute to bit supply growth until fiscal 2028 or later. The timing of future WFE spend in these fabs will be managed to align supply growth with expected demand growth.
I will now turn it over to Mark for our financial results and outlook.

Mark Murphy

Thanks, Sanjay, and good afternoon, everyone. Micron delivered strong results in fiscal Q3 with revenue, gross margin, and EPS above the high end of the guidance ranges provided in our last earnings call. Improving market conditions and strong price and cost execution drove the financial outperformance.
Total fiscal Q3 revenue was $6.8 billion, up 17% sequentially and up 82% year over year. Fiscal Q3 DRAM revenue was approximately $4.7 billion, representing 69% of total revenue. DRAM revenue increased 13% sequentially, with bit shipments declining in the mid-single-digit percentage range and prices increasing by approximately 20%.
Fiscal Q3 NAND revenue was approximately $2.1 billion, representing 30% of Micron’s total revenue. NAND revenue increased 32% sequentially, with bit shipments increasing in the high-single-digit percentage range and prices increasing by approximately 20%.
Now, turning to revenue by business unit. Compute and networking business unit revenue was $2.6 billion, up 18% sequentially. DRAM data center revenue more than doubled year over year.
Revenue for the mobile business unit was $1.6 billion, down 1% sequentially as a planned decline in volume was partially offset by improved pricing. Embedded business unit revenue was $1.3 billion, up 16% sequentially driven by record revenue in automotive.
Revenue for the storage business unit was $1.4 billion, up 50% sequentially with growth across all endmarkets. We achieved record data center SSD revenue, which nearly doubled sequentially.
The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q3 was approximately 28%, up over 8 percentage points sequentially, driven primarily by higher pricing and helped by product mix and cost reductions. Excluding the effects of previously written-down inventories on fiscal Q2 gross margin, the sequential improvement in fiscal Q3 would have been 15 percentage points. As a reminder, previously written-down inventories had no impact on fiscal Q3 gross margin and will not affect our gross margin moving forward.
Operating expenses in fiscal Q3 were $976 million, up $17 million quarter over quarter. Continued spend discipline and ongoing operational efficiencies helped deliver operating expenses at the low end of the guidance range.
We generated operating income of $941 million in fiscal Q3, resulting in an operating margin of 14%, which was up 10 percentage points sequentially and up 53 percentage points from the year-ago quarter. Fiscal Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $2.9 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 43%, up 6 percentage points sequentially and up 30 percentage points or $2.4 billion from the year-ago quarter.
Fiscal Q3 taxes were $227 million, lower than expectations at the time of our guidance, driven by one-timediscrete items. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share in fiscal Q3 was $0.62, compared to $0.42 in the prior quarter and a loss per share of $1.43 in the year-ago quarter. Fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $0.10, driven by better revenue and profitability.
Turning to cash flows and capital spending, our operating cash flows were $2.5 billion in fiscal Q3, representing 36% of revenue. Capital expenditures were $2.1 billion during the quarter, and we generatedfree cash flow of $425 million.
Our fiscal Q3 ending inventory was $8.5 billion or 155 days, a decline of 5 days from the prior quarter. Our leading-edge supply continues to be very tight for both DRAM and NAND.
On the balance sheet, we held $9.2 billion of cash and investments at quarter end and maintained near $12 billion of liquidity when including our untapped credit facility. Considering our ample liquidity, return to free cash flow generation, and strong outlook, during the quarter, we repaid $650 million of debt maturing in November 2025. We ended the quarter with $13.3 billion in total debt, low net leverage and a weighted average maturity on our debt of 2031.
Now turning to our outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter. We expect DRAM bit shipments to be flattish and NAND shipments to be up slightly in fiscal Q4. We forecast shipment growth to strengthen modestly in the November quarter.
We project continued gross margin expansion. Pricing trends remain positive, supported by favorable supply-demand conditions. Portfolio mix will be an important contributor over time as HBM, high-capacity DIMMs, data center SSDs, and other high-value products increase as a portion of our mix.
The high mix for our leading-edge nodes supports front-end cost reductions in line with our long-term cost reduction CAGRs, excluding HBM on DRAM. Keep in mind that higher mix of HBM will offset non-HBM DRAM cost reductions, but HBM will be at accretive gross margins.
We forecast operating expenses to increase sequentially in the fiscal fourth quarter due to an increase in R&D program expenses and a non-recurring Q3 asset sale gain contemplated in our Q3 guidance. We estimate fiscal Q4 tax expense of approximately $320 million.
For fiscal 2025, we estimate our non-GAAP tax rate to be in the mid-teens percent range. We project days of inventory outstanding to decline through fiscal 2025 and DIO to approach our target by the end of fiscal year 2025.
We forecast capital expenditures to increase sequentially in the fiscal fourth quarter to approximately $3 billion. Despite this increase in CapEx, we project continued positive free cash flow in fiscal Q4. We expect full-year fiscal 2024 CapEx of around $8.0 billion.
Record revenue and significantly improved profitability in fiscal 2025 will help support average quarterly CapEx in fiscal 2025 to be meaningfully above the fiscal Q4 2024 level of $3 billion. We expect CapEx around mid-30s percentage range of revenue for fiscal 2025, which will support HBM assembly and test equipment, fab and back-end facility construction, as well as technology transition investment to support demand growth.
As noted earlier, half or more of the expected CapEx increase in fiscal 2025 will be to support US greenfield fab construction. As we have noted in the past, the CHIPS grants, ITC, and state incentives offset a significant portion of the US fab CapEx investments. Receipt of some of these incentive reimbursements occurs well after when we incur the spend, resulting in higher CapEx for a period while we ramp our greenfield US investments.
Micron will remain disciplined in our capital spending and will modulate our WFE investments to grow bit supply in line with industry demand.
With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for fiscal Q4 is as follows. We expect revenue to be $7.6 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin to be in the range of 34.5%, plus or minus 100 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $1.06 billion, plus or minus $15 million.
We expect tax expenses of approximately $320 million. Based on a share count of approximately 1.1 billion shares, we expect EPS to be $1.08 per share, plus or minus $0.08.
In closing, market conditions are improving, with price increases driven by favorable supply-demand trends and tightness on the leading edge. Micron is executing well on leveraging our technology leadership to grow our mix of high-value solutions, especially in products that support AI applications.
Finally, our leading-edge investments and productivity initiatives are delivering cost-downs and operating leverage during this market recovery. We expect record revenue and significantly better profitability in fiscal 2025 to support disciplined investment to maintain stable bit share and deliver free cash flow growth.
I will now turn it back over to Sanjay.

Sanjay Mehrotra

Thank you, Mark. I want to close by commending our team in Taiwan for their response to the significant earthquake in fiscal Q3. In many ways, that response exemplifies Micron: an agile, prepared team that assesses and reacts quickly, supported by a brilliant network of colleagues around the globe.
That collaboration, planning, discipline and experience are precisely what ensures Micron is so well positioned today. I look forward to our teams accelerating Micron's memory and storage leadership as AI solutions present increasing opportunities to provide greater value, from data centers to the edge.
Thank you for joining us today. We will now open for questions.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

Certainly. And one moment for our first question. Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

Krish Sankar

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have two questions. Sanjay, the first one is on HBM.
Clearly, you're gaining traction in HBM3E. I'm just curious how the HBM3E (technical difficulty) and how (technical difficulty) going beyond one customer. Last time, you've publicly said that you qualified NVIDIA H200. Kind of curious, how is it doing with the B100 for NVIDIA.
And also along the same path, you confidently spoke about pulling in the timeframe for HBM goal versus the regular 18-month cadence for HBM technology transfer. So basically, I'm curious, Sanjay. Any color, HBM3E qual in different customers, timing on HBM [for in-house], and a quick follow-up.

Sanjay Mehrotra

So let me start off by again pointing out that we delivered over $100 million in revenue in fiscal Q3 with our HBM3E. And I'm very pleased with our team's focused on delivering this number. And note that this was margin accretive to our overall margins, but also to our DRAM margins. And of course, we remain very much focused on delivering $700 million in fiscal 2024 for HBM revenue and, as I noted, multiple billion dollars in revenue.
And in HBM, we are very much focused on continuing to ramp our production and also to improve our yields. And that is, of course, an important priority. And any new products that is as complex as HBM or any new technology node always has a yield ramp. And the team is extremely focused on that.
So as we look ahead to 2025, we remain confident in our ability to deliver our market share, consistent with DRAM share sometime in 2025, and again, are very pleased with Micron's strong product of HBM3E that, as I noted, has been well recognized by our customers to have 30% better power compared to any competitor's product that is out there.
Now regarding your question on qualifications, of course, we are in qualifications with other customers as well. And as I noted in my remarks that in 2025 timeframe, we expect to be broadening and diversifying our customer base as well.
And HBM4, I mentioned in my remarks that we have a strong road map ahead for HBM4 and HBM4E. And we feel very good about our capabilities there, the roadmap that we have in front of us, and our ability to deliver leadership with HBM4 and HBM4E as well.

Krish Sankar

Got it. Thanks, Sanjay, for that. And a quick follow up. On NAND -- on the NAND demand, you mentioned that the bit growth demand, it goes within high teens. If I remember right, last quarter, you said it's going to be in the low 20s.
So I'm curious, what was the delta (inaudible) last few months ago? Because there's a general view that AI should be helping NAND. So why is the NAND bit demand growth not going higher? It looks like it's going lower. Thank you.

Sanjay Mehrotra

So what I would tell you, Krish, is that there is really not much of a difference between the CAGR that we shared last time versus the CAGR we showed here. And I'll also tell you that we basically revised the base year for the CAGR that we used.
So this time, the CAGR that we used, we used the base year of 2023. And in 2023, as you know, we had a bit demand growth in NAND that was higher, meaningfully higher, than the CAGR. So that, of course, the larger base of 2023, just somewhat changed our outlook on the overall CAGR.
But you're absolutely right to note, as we have also highlighted, that data center SSDs are a good growth demand driver. And I'll just provide you some color.
The data center, automotive, and industrial, these are all growing faster in terms of NAND demand versus the CAGR that we have shared. Client, mobile, and consumer, somewhat slower. But these slow-growing segments actually have also average capacity increases ahead of them, as I gave you examples of AI PCs and AI smartphones driving content growth.
And we have does conservatively planned for this, but have -- and we will continue to assess the average capacity growth in smartphone and PCs in the times ahead. And it's important that the CAGR that we highlight here, this is what we use for our capacity planning. And we want to, of course, always remain disciplined with respect to our capacity planning and very much focusing on demand-supply balance and ROI.

Krish Sankar

Got it. Thanks, Sanjay. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya

Thanks for taking my question. Sanjay, you mentioned a 3x trade ratio of HBM to D5. What happens to the ratio as you go to higher stacks, 12-die or more? And on the other hand, what happens as you make yield improvements? Just overall, is 3x still the operative function for calendar 25? And just what are the puts and takes around this ratio?

Sanjay Mehrotra

Yeah. I mean, I think for HBM3E, 3x is the operative guidance here with respect to the trade ratio. And again, just keep in mind that this all already accounts for the larger die that exists with HBM3E, given its performance and packaging and overall product expectations, as well as -- of course, with the eight-die stack as well as the logic die in there, the mature yield expectations there as well.
And as the yield will be ramping up for us, of course, we will be able to get the benefit on the lower cost as we go forward. But the mature yields, the trade ratio with HBM3E is about three times over the mature yield of D5 in the same technology node.
And as you go up to HBM4, of course, the trade ratio, as we have said before, increases. It goes higher than three. And as you go up from eight-die stack 12-die stack in HBM3E, of course, 12-die stack will have somewhat lower mature yields as well. That's just the nature of how device yields work.
But the operative guidance, I think, remains still 3x for HBM3E and greater than that for HBM4, inclusive of the assumption of mature yields. And of course, our definition of mature yields here is world-class mature yields.

Vivek Arya

Got it. And a quick follow-up maybe for Mark. So you're suggesting fiscal '25 is -- could be a record in terms of sales. Why can't it be a record in terms of gross margin? What are the puts and takes of gross margin as we go into next year?
So maybe give us some sense of what incremental margins can be, (inaudible) $5 billion or $10 billion year on year, just so we can level set our models on a gross margin perspective. Thank you.

Mark Murphy

Yeah, Vivek, we're happy to take that. We're not providing fiscal year '25 guidance yet. I can talk about some sequential improvements from here. Of course, we guided a 600-basis-point increased gross margin guidance between third quarter and the guide [in-force]. And that's driven by price, but also mixes beginning to become a more substantive factor in the sequential gross margin expansions.
We see November quarter -- yeah, we see gross margin expansion continuing up a few hundred basis points. Again, price is a factor, but also is the fourth-quarter mix participating in the -- or contributing to the increase. And that's a fact of HBM and high-capacity DIMMs and other higher value products.
We do expect through fiscal '25 for price to continue to increase, and we expect this favorable mix effect to continue to increase. You've seen very clearly in the third quarter in our fourth-quarter guide the strength in data center, and we see that growth continuing.
And then later in the year, we see replacement cycle for smartphone and PC and then the associated content with AI picking up. So we expect that, again, second half of the calendar year into early '25 for that to kick in.
And then on the supply side, you've got just tight conditions. You've got structurally lower capacity industry. Inventories are trending down, which we believe ours will trend down through fiscal 25 to close to our target by the end of '25. And then just the HCM trade ratio, which Sanjay just commented on.
And then of course, I talked about -- in the sequential gross margin, I talked about the mix that we see in the business with our higher value products, which are HBM, high-capacity DIMMs, SSDs, which we've talked about.
So the momentum is very strong. We've our technology leadership. We've got the best product position the company has ever had, and the manufacturing is operating very well. So well positioned for fiscal '25.

Vivek Arya

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari

Hi. Thank you so much for taking the question. I had two as well, the first one on HBM. I guess recently, there's been a couple of reports about you all having some yield issues. Based on your commentary, it didn't sound like you're having these issues, but just wanted to clarify that. If you could address that, that would be really helpful.
And then on HBM, the second part is -- so gross margins are accretive to overall corporate margins today. What are your thoughts on the relative profitability going into the second half of the year and into calendar '25, particularly given the fact that you have pretty good visibility as it pertains to HBM pricing?

Sanjay Mehrotra

So regarding the yield, I think I already commented that we are pleased that in the very first quarter of production, we were able to serve over $100 million of HBM revenue. And we remain focused on our goal and remain confident about our goals of delivering several hundred million dollars of revenue in fiscal '24 and multiple hundred billions of dollars of revenue in fiscal '25 and getting to our share to be in line with -- our share for HBM to be in line with our DRAM share sometime in 2025.
So of course, our yield assumptions are baked in in all of that. And we look to continue to work on all aspects of ramping up our capacity. And of course, we expect to improve yields as we go forward.
Again, that is typical of any new technology, any new product that you ramp-up. So that's what we remain focused on.
And regarding the gross margin comment, maybe Mark can add some color. But as I mentioned earlier, the gross margin is accretive not only for -- to our corporate margins. But it is also accretive to our DRAM margins. And our DRAM margins, as you know, tend to be higher than our corporate margins, which are lower because of the lower NAND -- margins in NAND generally in the industry.

Mark Murphy

It is helping to drive continued gross margin expansion through '25.

Toshiya Hari

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then my follow-up, maybe one for Mark on CapEx. You're guiding fiscal year '25 up materially, given some of the hints that you provided, maybe you're looking at a mid-teens $1-billion number for fiscal '25. I know more than half of that or half of that is coming from the greenfield investments in the US. But how should we be thinking about your bit supply growth in fiscal '25 or calendar '25?
Do we [strategize] to grow more or less in line with the demand figure you have for DRAM and NAND, mid-teens high teens, respectively? Or do you expect to (inaudible) relative to those (inaudible) ranges in fiscal '25? Thank you.

Mark Murphy

Yeah, we -- good questions, Toshiya. And yeah, your view on CapEx -- yeah, we've given enough that we don't want to guide revenue for '25 because we will do that at a future date by quarter. But we do expect a material increase year over year.
For the quarter, sequentially, we'll see as a meaningful step up. We were at $3 billion. We increased from $2.1 billion to $3 billion, third quarter to fourth-quarter guide. I would characterize that both on a dollar and percent basis as more than meaningful, so it'd be less than that sequentially. But we are spending more.
Yeah. To your question on -- we are very constrained on bits, bit production, and -- as I mentioned in my earlier comments, we will certainly see inventory levels come down. In fact, we expect to be approaching target inventory levels by the end of 2025.

Toshiya Hari

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Thomas O'Malley, Barclays.

Thomas O'Malley

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. This is for Sanjay or Mark. So you've given us the fiscal year '25 company guide into several (inaudible) in HBM. Then you talked about the share that you're getting to is equivalent to that of DRAM. So you solve for that market, low-teens total HBM market.
I just want to understand. What's your view of the suppliers to that market? As it stands today, it seems like there's really two major suppliers. When you look at the out year, do you think that number changes if there's additional qualifications? Would that number change if you were to have a third qualification, aka, the market be bigger? And how did you come up with that total market numbers, that bottoms-up accelerator, forecasts? But just kind of how you're thinking about the market. And did that change or is it contingent upon qualifications of some of your competitors?

Sanjay Mehrotra

Well, as we have said before, that we see the CAGR for HBM growth, in terms of bit growth CAGR, to be well above 50% over the next few years. So certainly, HBM is a strong growth driver. And again, as we increase our mix of HBM going forward, it will of course be -- continuing to be accretive to our financial performance, including margins.
And we are pleased that with the strong performance that we have, we are sold out for '25 as well with overwhelming part of our output already committed in terms of pricing. So that points to a strong position that we have in terms of continuing to work toward achieving our goal of getting to our HBM market share to be in line with DRAM share sometime in 2025.
And of course, we are working with a broad range of customers in qualifications. And next year, we plan to be shipping to broader set of customers.
Having said all of that, no question that HBM is a complex product for our customers to qualify as well. It's highly resource intensive not just for us, but for our customers as well. And this is where we think that our strong product position, highlighting again those attributes of 30% better power than nearest competitor and a better performance and really high quality, here positions as well when customers work in those resource-intensive qualifications for Micron.
And that's what we are already seeing in terms of our engagements. So we feel pretty good about our plans here for HBM.

Thomas O'Malley

Super helpful. And then just switching gears over to the demand side of things. Obviously, you have a competitor out in the market talking about run-rate industry CapEx and talking about the change in industry architecture maybe not scaling as quickly or as capital intensively as you have in the past.
You obviously you're talking about CapEx. A lot of your CapEx next year is going towards greenfield in HBM. Can you talk to the remainder of that CapEx? Could you give us any color on DRAM or NAND split between that?
And then do you agree with -- there was Western Digital talking about capital intensity longer-term on the NAND side. Do you agree that maybe structurally, you'll see a lower investment threshold in the future to continue to maintain what the industry needs?

Sanjay Mehrotra

So for us, certainly our CapEx is dominated by our DRAM-related CapEx that -- certainly, HBM because it's growing as mix in the industry. And HBM is capital intensive when it comes to unique clean room requirements for HBM and in packaging and assembly, as well as test equipment.
So our CapEx is dominated by that as well as to meet future requirements in the second half of this decade. And that involves the construction of the fabs. So NAND CapEx is certainly a much smaller portion of our total CapEx.
And we have a very strong technology position with our NAND and a strong portfolio that you see. And we are continuing to shift that portfolio toward higher-value solutions as well. So we certainly will remain extremely disciplined when it comes to NAND as well in terms of driving the CapEx. And we will be disciplined in terms of driving our technology node transitions.
In the timing of node transitions across the industry, I think it is certainly helpful, given the bit growth that you get from those transitions, to slow down the timing of those -- the cadence of those node transitions so that your bit growth CAGR versus the gain of bits that you get from the wafers can be managed well. These are the kinds of things we are very much focused on in order to maintain a good supply discipline, maintain supply growth that is very much in line with the demand growth, and managing our CapEx here prudently.
But yes, I mean, overall, our CapEx in NAND is significantly smaller, but we remain extremely disciplined in managing our supply growth in line with demand there.
And again, I want to point out that with NAND, technology transitions are sufficient to meet the demand growth. We do not need new clean room, the new greenfield fab, the kind that are needed in DRAM. And HBM and the trade ratio of HBM with standard DRAM is a factor in the greenfield requirements only also.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Christopher Danely, Citi.

Christopher Danely

Hey. Thanks, guys. So I think you mentioned you're signing up some customers to long-term contracts. Given your belief that pricing's going to keep drawn up, why sign people up to long-term contracts and potentially miss out on some of the increased pricing? Or is there some potential for wiggle room on pricing with the contracts that's more of a unit basis? Just curious there.

Sanjay Mehrotra

Well, the long term contracts really help us and customers get closer not only with respect to, let's say, supply or pricing discussions as may be relevant to our various customer contracts, but also with respect to the road map, product road map, the timing of the supply. And they are very helpful factors in building a close relationship with the customers.
And you can see that we are pointing to a substantial revenue record in 2025, of course, leveraging some of these contracts that we have put in place. And we have also pointed to a significant improvement in profitability. So I think we are well positioned in these contracts with respect to not only the supply and demand fundamentals, but also with respect to the financial aspects.

Christopher Danely

Great. Thanks, Sanjay. And then just a quick one for Mark. Mark, was the Taiwan quake impacted limited to the May quarter? Or is it impacting the third quarter as well?

Mark Murphy

Not a material impact, Chris.

Christopher Danely

[Just me]. All right. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

Harlan Sur

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Enterprise SSDs are seeing really strong demand pull from AI workflows, right? The team given significant share gains in enterprise SSD just over the past few quarters. I think in calendar Q1, Micron was the number three global share leader in enterprise SSD.
I think it's now above 20%, 25% of the overall NAND business. I mean, this is a position that we've never seen Micron in before. So I think first question is, are enterprise SSD gross margins accretive to your overall NAND gross margins?
And then secondly, I saw your question next-gent PCIE Gen 5 SSD demo at NVIDIA's GTC conference putting significant performance uplift on AI workloads versus your Gen 4 SSD. So are you qualifying these next-gen Gen 5 SSDs for AI applications? When do you expect to ship? Just wanted to understand the sustainability of your strong share position here.

Sanjay Mehrotra

Well, thank you, Harlan, for recognizing the strong momentum that Micron's data center SSD have. And certainly, our data center SSDs are accretive to our overall NAND margins, and we have really great products.
I already highlighted in my prepared remarks that we saw tripling of bits that we shipped. There's our 232-layer NAND AI SSDs going absolutely toward data center applications. And we have a broad set of customers that we are working with in terms of growing our share.
So we see, when we talk about -- sequentially, we had 50% increase in revenue for our data center products. Of course, that includes the benefit of our strong data center SSD roadmap. And yes, I mean, we will, of course, continue to work with our Gen 5 SSDs in terms of working with customers for qualifying.
And I'm not prepared to discuss, at this point, the specifics regarding the timing of some of the roadmap that is in front of us for shipments. So yes, in terms of sustainability of the strong improvement to share, we are definitely, with our strong product portfolio, counting on it.
And this will, our SSD momentum -- data center SSD momentum, will absolutely contribute. Also to word my remarks that I said that we will increase our mix of data center revenue in fiscal year '25 as well. Of course, HBM, high-density DIMMs, these will, of course, be a big part of it. But also, data centers SSDs is going to be another big part of our growth in fiscal 2025 related to data center revenue.

Mark Murphy

I would just add, Harlan, that the storage business unit delivered operating profit in the quarter.

Harlan Sur

Perfect. Thank you very much, insightful.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session as well as today's program. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.