Q1 2024 Levi Strauss & Co Earnings Call

Participants

Aida Orphan; VP of IR; Levi Strauss & Co

Michelle Gass; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Levi Strauss & Co

Harmit Singh; Chief Financial and Growth Officer, Executive Vice President; Levi Strauss & Co

Bob Drbul; Analyst; Guggenheim Securities LLC

Laurent Vasilescu; Analyst; Exane BNP Paribas

Dana Telsey; Analyst; Telsey Advisory Group

Jay Sole; Analyst; UBS

Oliver Chen; Analyst; Cowen & Co. LLC

Chris Nardone; Analyst; BofA Global Research

Tracy Kogan; Analyst; Citi

Alex Straton; Analyst; Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Presentation

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Levi Strauss & Co. first quarter fiscal 2024 earnings conference call for the period ending February 25, 2024. (Operator Instructions)
This conference call is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without written permission from the company. This conference call is being broadcast over the Internet and a replay of the webcast will be accessible for one quarter on the company's website, levistrauss.com.
I would now like to turn the call over to Aida Orphan, Vice President of Investor Relations at Levi Strauss & Company.

Aida Orphan

Thank you for joining us on the call today to discuss the results for our first quarter in 2024. Joining me on today's call are Michelle Gass, our President and CEO; and Harmit Singh, our Chief Financial and Growth Officer. We have posted complete Q1 financial results in our earnings release on the IR section of our website, investors dot levistrauss.com.
A link to the webcast of today's conference call can also be found on our site. We'd like to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements on this call, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements.
Please review our filings with the SEC in particular, the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-Q that we filed today for the factors that could cause our results to differ. Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today, and we assume no obligation to update any of these statements.
During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results and reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP measure are included in today's press release.
Finally, this call is being webcast on our IR website and a replay of this call will be available on the website shortly. Please note that Michelle and Harmit will be referencing constant currency numbers unless otherwise noted. Today's call is scheduled for one hour. So please limit yourself to one question at a time to give others the opportunity to have their questions addressed.
And now I'd like to turn over the call to Michelle.

Michelle Gass

Thank you, and welcome everyone to today's call. The year is off to a strong start with both Q1 revenue and adjusted EPS coming in above our expectations. Revenues of $1.6 billion were down 8% on a constant currency basis due to last year's $100 million shift from Q2 into Q1 related to the ERP implementation in the US.
Excluding this shift as well as the impact from exiting the Denizen business in Russia, Q1 revenues were flat. Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.26 came in better than our expectations, driven by a 240 basis point increase in gross margin and prudently managing our expenses.
Our performance this quarter reflects many proof points that our strategies leading with our brands operating as a direct to consumer first business and diversifying our portfolio are working. We are fueling consumer demand resulting in meaningful US share gains in both men's and women's driven by newness and innovation as well as continued strength in our core.
We are continuing to see strong momentum in our global direct-to-consumer business, where we have now delivered eight consecutive quarters of robust comp growth. Our e-commerce business again achieved strong growth of 12% on top of mid-teens growth last year.
And we're particularly excited about the continued acceleration in our overall women's business, which was up 14% and DTC globally for the quarter, we're encouraged by the performance of our largest market, the US we saw sustained progress in GGC., which was up 10%, as well as continued stabilization in U.S. wholesale for the Levi's brand, which was up low single digits.
Stepping back, we are building a stronger business in the U.S. underscored by significant growth and operating margin expansion across channels in Q1. And revenue in the global wholesale channel, while down was in line with expectations as the actions we have taken to improve this business are working.
Importantly, global wholesale gross margins increase as both owned and channel inventory levels are much improved and through our transformational pivot to operating as a DTC first company, we are bringing operational rigor and a narrower strategic focus, which will set a solid foundation for sustainable, profitable growth.
Through our productivity initiatives, Project Fuel, we remain focused on driving cost efficiencies. And during the quarter, we took concrete actions and rightsizing our organization. In addition, we have activated an initial reduction of nearly 15% of SKUs across our Levi's product assortment and are de-prioritizing footwear.
These efforts, together with the recent decision to exit Denizen not only improve our cost structure, but also provide an unlock in simplifying and streamlining how we work. While it's early in the year, we started the year strong and are encouraged by the trends we're seeing in the business. As a result, we are increasing our adjusted diluted EPS guidance for the year. Harmit will share more.
I will now talk you through the results of the quarter in the context of our strategic priorities starting with our first priority, leading with our brands. First, the jeans category has stabilized in the US now flat to prior year after several years of volatility. Importantly, over the same time, period, Levi's outperformed the category, growing 2 points of share in men's and 1 point of share in women's.
We are also making progress in our key use target gaining share with 18 to 30 year olds. In the past quarter, Levi's picked up share with the middle income consumer, which is critical. Given these are the largest consumers of the category, we are continuing to outperform the category with higher income consumers, demonstrating the success of our efforts in elevating the brand's market.
Share growth is being driven by the exciting innovation we are bringing to the category as well as our ongoing commitment to keeping the brand at the center of culture, driving deep connections with fans around the world.
Just last week, we reaffirmed our place of the center of culture with the launch of our global breakthrough and interactive Live in Levi's campaign as part of a digitally led 360 degree media activation that kicked off with our advertising film. The floor is yours. We're inviting everyone to participate in a GM open call across social media platforms for a chance to showcase their talent and Levi's style in an exclusive new music video.
Moving to product, we continue to see strong performance in our core offerings while also introducing newness and innovation in denim and beyond. A clear barometer for the strength of our core business, the 501 was up 23% in DTC on top of 32% growth in the prior year.
We're seeing strength in loose fits for men's and women's both up more than 40% in the quarter. For example, we launched six new bag styles for women for which sales were up 50%. And we continue to see an evolution to low-rise and wider leg openings both performing strongly.
We see an incredible opportunity to own the head-to-toe denim apparel lifestyle. And in doing so, we expect to expand our addressable market for denim overall, denim, skirts, dresses and jumpsuits again saw positive results, increasing triple digits in the quarter.
We are also seeing strength in our denim tops assortment with our iconic women's Westerns up more than 40%. Looking forward, we are leaning into this opportunity and we're introducing new denim tops silhouettes across blouses course at best and more.
As shared on our last call, we are working on an end to end reset of our tops business, and we're seeing early success with tossed outperforming the overall business, driven by about 10% growth in DTC. We are building out our core central assortment in categories like T-shirts, wovens and polos to provide a perfect pairing to our denim bottoms, and we're investing in capability building, including new key leadership hires.
We recently filled the newly created role of Vice President tops design which will be critical in setting the design direction for Levi's talk, and we are successfully extending our authority in bottoms to categories beyond denim.
We recently launched our active tech pant in the U.S., which has been met with great initial response with demand for the product stronger than expected in both wholesale and DTC. We are chasing into inventory and we're excited to continue fueling this new product line with additional innovations planned throughout this year and next as we roll out this platform globally.
As we move through the year, we will accelerate newness and drive innovation by extending our non-denim authority into categories like shorts, skirts and dresses for the seasons ahead. And given the positive early trends in our performance, cool and lightweight denim collections. We will continue building out those platforms to bring to the consumer, our innovative denim fabrications, giving them the fit and style they love with a more versatile year-round end use.
Shifting to direct to consumer, our second strategic priority. DTC continued to grow rapidly, up 8% on top of 16% growth in the prior year. We achieved these strong results by delivering positive comp sales across our stores, growth in e-commerce and adding new stores.
Increasing productivity and profitability in our stores is a key focus of Project Fuel, and we are gaining traction. Overall for the quarter, we saw increases in traffic, UPT and AUR. in our DTC channels, and we are building bigger baskets through our focus on having the right assortment in the right stores at the right time, more newness drops, which are driving positive momentum and better in-stock positions.
In addition to top line growth, we are seeing a greater degree of leverage on our cost base, such as improving our management of controllable retail costs like optimizing store staffing and scheduling. We're encouraged by these results and have multiple initiatives underway to further improve the four-wall economics of our stores.
The success we're having in brick and mortar also gives us confidence in our store opening strategy. The majority of net new stores this year will be in Asia where we see a lot of runway for growth. One great example is our recently reopened Kyoto store in Japan and one of the city's most vibrant shopping districts, delivering consumers an immersive shopping experience.
This store is representative of the culture and history of the city and features the best of leave Another example is in Europe where we are reopening our Levi's flagship store in Paris, ahead of the summer Olympics, located in the heart of one of the most highly trafficked and desirable shopping destinations in the world Champs-Elysees.
This store will offer Levi's fans from France and around the world for the fullest and best expression of our denim lifestyle offerings. These stores and others coming are representative of our commitment to bringing elevated shopping experiences for the world's most desirable locations while also driving a scalable and profitable to our portfolio.
Our eCommerce business continues to gain momentum, generating 12% growth on top of 14% growth in the prior year. This is a direct result of the investments we've made to enhance the consumer experience including improved search, navigation and filtering capabilities.
We are also creating a more engaging experience by upgrading our product imagery and videos, addressing a key consumer need, helping people find the perfect fit as we make our pivot to be a DTC first company.
We remain committed to wholesale and the actions we're taking to elevate our performance in this channel are gaining traction after adjusting for the revenue shift related to the ERP implementation in Q1 2023, the Levi's brand within U.S. wholesale grew for a second consecutive quarter, up low single digits and was substantially more profitable than last year.
We remain encouraged regarding the outlook of our global wholesale business and expect sequential improvement as we move through the year. Improved sell-out trends along with the expanded wholesale assortment, gives us optimism.
Turning now to our third strategy, the diversification of our business. As I referenced earlier, we are pleased with the ongoing momentum we are seeing in our largest market, the US. Beyond that diversifying geographies continues to be a key part of our growth strategy.
And today, international comprises nearly 60% of total revenues. While international was down 2% in Q1, international DTC grew high single digits, and Asia achieved record revenues in the quarter, driven by double digit top line growth in many markets.
Let me address Europe. We continue to be pleased with the performance we are seeing in our DTC channel, which was up 4% excluding Russia. We saw notable improvement in our DTC business in response to new force at launched with sequential improvement in the quarter month over month and February up double digits. This strength has continued into March.
While the European wholesale channel has been challenging, our key customers are excited about the amplified denim lifestyle offerings that we are delivering, and we are seeing positive wholesale prebook orders in the second half of the year. We continue to expect the total Europe segment to return to growth in the second half of this year.
Moving to other brands where we continue to make solid progress both beyond yoga and Dockers, expand our portfolio and our addressable market. And when we look at our category portfolio, we are excited about the diversification we are making beyond denim bottoms.
Dockers sales trends improved versus the prior quarter, down 9% adjusting for the shift in wholesale as strong performance in DTC up 14% was offset by lower wholesale sales. Inventory levels for the Dockers brand has shown sequential improvement and is now at its lowest levels since March of 2023.
We're encouraged by the positive customer reaction to our new product launches, including the recently released Dockers, go pant, the brand's first active pad that has quickly become one of the top selling items in stores across the globe.
Beyond yogurt was up 11% on top of similar growth in the prior year, driven largely by strength in e-commerce. We are making investments to grow brand awareness and unleash the growth potential of this incredible brand.
In summary, we have started the year strong with many of the headwinds we faced the past 18 months resolve, most notably the congestion in our US distribution centers and accelerating momentum across the world and especially in the US, we are well positioned for the year ahead, and I'm confident in our ability to achieve our objectives for 2024 and beyond.
And with that, I will turn it over to Harmit to cover the financials.

Harmit Singh

Thanks, Michelle. We delivered better than expected results in Q1, driven by continued outperformance in global DTC and stabilization in U.S. wholesale. Most importantly, we achieved these results while also improving the structural economics of the company.
Together, these established a strong base for profitable growth for '24 and years to come. In the quarter, we delivered significant gross margin expansion and we continue to expect further improvement this year and beyond from the structural drivers of our strategy to grow DTC, women's and international and as transitory headwinds continue to shift to tailwinds.
We delivered disciplined cost management while also investing in our key growth initiatives the productivity initiatives we launched in Q1 will drive efficiencies across the Company, both in '24 and '25, while positioning us to realize the growth potential of our business.
We expect the combination of margin improvement and operating leverage to enable us to deliver sustainable bottom line growth and greater efficiency and our active inventory and working capital management. It is enabling us to generate strong free cash flow.
This allowed us to return cash to shareholders through dividends, restart the stock buyback program and acquired our distributor in Colombia, all consistent with our capital allocation strategy. As we look ahead, based on the trends we are seeing in our business today, we are confident in our ability to deliver accelerated sales in H2 and a position to deliver continued improvement in profitability and margin expansion in 2024. As a result, we are increasing our full-year earnings outlook.
And with that, I will turn to our results. Q1 net revenues were $1.6 billion, reflecting continued momentum in our global direct-to-consumer channel, which grew 8%, up 25% on a two-year stack an acceleration from Q4. Gross margin of 58.2% was better than expected and improved 240 basis points year-over-year.
Expansion was driven by lower product costs the shift to DTC and the fact that wholesale mix was predominantly elevated in the prior year due to the ERP implementation. These factors offset both FX headwinds and the annualization of the strategic price reductions we took in U.S. wholesale in H2 last year.
Adjusted SG&A expenses in the quarter increased 1.2% to $766 million compared to $757 million last year, slightly better than expectations as we start to see the benefit of our cost control actions, including Project Fuel. Adjusted EBIT margin declined 200 basis points to 9% compared to 11% in the prior year.
The decline was almost entirely due to the sales deleverage resulting from the $100 million ERP shift and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.26 ahead of our expectation, primarily driven by the outperformance in both revenue and gross margin.
Before turning to our segment highlights, let me spend a moment on the restructuring charges we took in the quarter. As you know, we launched Project Fuel in January to accelerate profitable growth while driving cost savings.
Since then we have taken actions to streamline our organization structure with the elimination of approximately 12% of our global workforce. Other actions being implemented will improve DTC productivity and SG&A as we deliver savings across indirect procurement and other initiatives.
We've also made the decision to close our manufacturing facility in Poland as we optimize our supply chain, both enable agility and lower cost and after a strategic review of our category, we have taken the decision to wind down our small Levi's footwear business.
This, along with the decision to exit Denizen last quarter will help our plans to unlock the true potential of the Levi's brand globally. These actions put us on the path to achieve approximately $100 million in savings in 2024 and more in 2025.
Now let's review the key highlights by segment. In the Americas, 11% growth in DTC was more than offset by a decrease in wholesale, largely due to the shift in wholesale shipments in the prior operating margin increased 160 basis points to 18% due to increased gross margin across both channels and lower SG&A. This was largely driven by our U.S. business, which is more profitable today than last year.
We also just closed our acquisition of our Levi's brand distributor in Colombia, including approximately 40 owned and operated Levi's retail stores. This transaction further underscores the tremendous opportunity that exists to accelerate DTC growth within Latin America and further diversify our business geographically.
This follows a very successful 2019 acquisition of our distributor in Chile, Peru and Bolivia that has significantly surpassed our revenue and profitability expectations. And we are very optimistic on the outlook for the business in Colombia.
In Europe, DTC net revenues increased 4%, excluding Russia, growth was driven by positive performance in company-operated stores and in e-commerce. Wholesale net revenues decreased 13%, excluding Russia as wholesale orders from our retail partners remain conservative.
As Michelle mentioned, we are encouraged by the momentum we are seeing in our DTC business and coupled with positive inflection in our wholesale order book in the second half gives us confidence that Europe will grow in H2. In terms of profitability, gross margins were up 200 basis points, driven by an increase across both channels and most markets in the segment.
Asia net revenues increased 5% compared to the prior year and is up 27% on a two-year stack. DTC revenues increased 7%, driven by strength in Company-operated mainline and outlet stores and in e-commerce. And wholesale, net revenues increased 3%.
While a relatively small business for us, we experienced a slower than expected recovery in China. We have several initiatives in place to improve our business performance in this market, including ramping up a local product engine. Excluding China and the impact of the Middle East, this segment was up 8%. We are still long in Asia and remain confident of our plans to drive high single digit growth in this region.
So looking to our balance sheet and cash flows, reported inventory dollars decreased 14%, or 21%, excluding the impact of the modification of terms with the majority of our suppliers. Comparable inventory in the US remained significantly below last year's level, and we continued to make progress in Q1.
Overall inventory is also expected to end the year below prior levels as we work to further optimize inventories by improving turns and driving more assortment productivity.
Adjusted free cash flow was $214 million in the quarter, positive for the second quarter in a row as we manage inventory and working capital. We also expect to end the year with positive free cash flow. Our improved cash flow position enabled us to return $73 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends and the re-initiation of share buybacks.
In the quarter, we paid out $48 million in dividends and spent $25 million in repurchasing shares. We also announced Q2 dividend at $0.12 a share, maintaining the Q1 dividend per share.
Now let's turn to our fiscal 2024 outlook. Looking forward, we remain confident in the strength of our brand and the execution of our strategy. We are pleased with the trends in both the category and our business that we saw in the first quarter, and these have continued into March.
However, given that we just started the year, we're taking a prudent approach to our revenue outlook while raising our full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance slightly. With that in mind, we are affirming our full-year outlook of 1% to 3% revenue growth, incremental headwinds from FX in Asia will be offset with the impact of the Columbia acquisition. We now expect full-year gross margins to be up about 150 basis points, which is the high end of our previously guided range.
Turning to earnings, we are raising our adjusted diluted EPS estimate by $0.02 to $1.17 to $1.27. Given our strong gross margin results and our continued commitment to expense discipline. As we look into the second quarter, we continue to expect revenue to be up high single digits.
The Q2 revenue guidance reflects the shift in the ERP implementation and the exit of the Denizen business, we expect gross margins to be down approximately 50 basis points due to the higher concentration of DTC. in the second quarter of '23, given the ERP implementation that took place in that quarter. Overall, H1 gross margins will be up approximately 100 basis points, and we expect adjusted diluted EPS to be about $0.1 in quarter two, 150% higher than prior.
Before we begin Q&A, there are two points I would like to make. First. We are confident in our ability to grow the top line mid-single digit in the second half. We are seeing continued momentum in DTC globally, green shoots in the wholesale channel and encouraging trends in the US.
Our product pipeline is resonating with consumers and positions us to continue to grow market share based on the strength of our new offerings in European DTC and the positive pre-book In wholesale, we remain confident that Europe will return to growth in the second half. And in addition to the stores we acquired with the Columbia acquisition, we are also on pace to open 100 plus net new system stores globally in 2024.
Second, we remain focused on driving improved profitability and cash flow while being committed to deliver 15% operating margins over the longer term, we are confident in our ability to drive margin expansion through gross margin execution and expense discipline.
The benefits from of Project Fuel initiatives are just starting to unfold, which will continue to improve the agility and the efficiency of our business. And we will also continue to deliver positive free cash flow through inventory and working capital management.
To close these actions give us confidence in delivering our '24 commitments while setting the foundation for profitable long-term growth and enabling the Company to deliver solid returns to our stakeholders. Amid that, I will go ahead and open up lined for Q&A.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)
Bob Drbul, Guggenheim.

Bob Drbul

Hi, good afternoon. I was wondering, I think you mentioned on the call a market share gains in some recent category trends. Just wondering if you could share some more around what you're seeing and where you feel like the market share gains have come from? Thanks

Michelle Gass

Thanks Bob, thanks for the question. And yes, first, of all, we are really excited about what we're seeing in the category right now. So let's start with our biggest market in the US that after a couple of years of volatility, we're seeing the jeans category actually stabilize, and it's now flat to prior year.
But I think most importantly, we're seeing market share gains with the Levi's brand in the men's category, we saw 2 points of share gain. And in women's, we were up 1 point. And then underneath that, some really great proof points around our strategies.
First, we continue to be committed to driving the business with use in our key target, the 18 to 30 year olds. We're seeing share gains there and around the middle income consumer, which is a big part of the market, 40% of the category. We're seeing the category grow there as well as grow with Levi's.
We're continuing to pick up share with that higher income consumer as we focus on elevating the brand and really attributable to everything we're doing to drive our initiatives in DTC. in the US, DTC. was up 10%.
So within denim, we're feeling good. And I think you can you can look around even here in the US and it's a denim moment. I mean, there's a lot happening in denim and for Levi's, you know, we're the top are driving the trends. We're excited about everything we're doing, head-to-toe denim dressing on that's really resonating across our male and female customers.
And on that note, we're expanding our addressable market. So please first start with the evolution from being all about denim bottoms to denim, lifestyle categories like skirts and dresses, those are up triple digits in the quarter. Amazing our tops business, which we've been talking about for some time, whether that's denim tops or perfect pairing, that was up 10% and DTC also outperforming.
So a lot of our great proof points. And then beyond that and around non-denim, and we're seeing great strides there as well from non-denim was up 13% and DTC for Q1 representing 42% of our DTC channel.
And we're seeing that in categories like the double X, Gino and our new introduction on the active tech payout, which is doing really well, both in wholesale and in DTC and back on exceeding expectations, we're chasing into inventory.
And then I would just say around women's is a key focus for us, but a third of our business today, we see that over time getting to half of our business now from fashion bottoms, like I said, skirts, dresses, tops and women's. overall DTC was up 14% for the quarter, but in the US, it was up 19%.
So I can go on and on Bob, but there's you know, there's so many great proof points that our strategies are gaining traction.
And the last thing I would say that's all around the US, but as we think about globally on the denim market is expected to continue to grow at up mid-single digits. So now we fully expect to grow with the category, but we also expect to exceed it and drive market share.

Bob Drbul

Thank you.

Michelle Gass

Thanks Bob.

Operator

Thank you. Laurent Vasilescu, BNP Paribas.

Laurent Vasilescu

Thanks very much for taking my question, Michelle Harmit, I know that you're encouraged by trends in Europe. There's a lot of fear on Europe since yesterday morning, security. Just to get your take on what you're seeing in that market by region, should we still see Europe grow low single digits for the year?
And then separately, I know I know Beyonce his album was just dropped a few days ago, but curious to know if you're seeing any boost from her Levi's titles,

Michelle Gass

Hey Laurent, Micheal here. I'll take I'll take both your questions.
Well, first of all as it relates to Europe, you know, as we shared on the call, it was really Europe wholesale and where we had a tough quarter there. And I'd say that was largely due to some of the macro pressures as well as our own product deliveries. And we feel like the product side, we've corrected that. I'll get to that in a moment.
But yes, overall, we feel really good about Levi's in Europe. I mean, the brand continues to be very strong. And we measure we have many measures against our brand health, our brand boasts the highest unaided awareness. All of our denim perceptions on remain best in class.
We're actually seeing increases in Europe on relevance, preference and even head to toe denim. So those things are all headed in the right direction. And then a huge proof point for us, of course, is how the consumer is responding to our direct channel, both our stores and e-commerce.
And overall, our DTC business in Europe, excluding Russia, was up 4%. I think importantly, we saw that accelerate during the quarter. And in February, DTC was double digit and that carried on into March, and that was largely driven off of our new product.
So what time we're seeing really in many markets, I'm just elaborating in the US, but in Europe as well. The consumer is responding to the fashion we're bringing. So women's fashion, the looser fit the bag. You said on the low-rise also the rib cage, all doing well on men's, we're also seeing the baggage trend take hold. Our tops business is improving so that new product is what's driving DGC. and what we expect will drive also in the wholesale side.
So while a softer quarter this past quarter for Europe and wholesale, we're expecting improvement, especially in the back half. And to me, the biggest evidence of that is that our prebooks for Europe are up for the back half of the year. So we are expecting Europe overall to return to growth in the back half of the year.

Harmit Singh

Laurent, to your question about the full year, yes, we do fund that Europe will be up low-single digits.

Michelle Gass

And a nagging question, Jan Beyoncé and I would just say that denim is having a moment and the Levi's brand is having a powerful moment around the world. I mean, you see head-to-toe denim everywhere around the world.
Western is really trending and Western trending in fashion and in music, as you just said, and you know, one of the things that really you don't really it's significant about the Levi's brand and we put up quite a lot of emphasis and investment is making sure that the Levi's brand remains in the center of culture.
And I don't think there's any better evidence or proof point than having someone like Beyonce, who's a culture shaper to actually name Asam after us, though, we're super proud of that. We're very, very honored that someone like Beyonce would actually be a winner for Nissan.

Laurent Vasilescu

Great. Thank you very much.

Aida Orphan

Thanks, Laurent.

Operator

Thank you. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey

Hi, good afternoon. Good afternoon, everyone, and nice to see the progress. Michelle, and Harmit. (multiple speakers) Hi, you talked about stabilization in U.S. wholesale. Was it was the department stores, off-price, the discounters, what did you see in U.S. wholesale? And what's your outlook going forward?
And Harmit, you mentioned inventory levels, so the gross margin uptick and guidance for the year? And is there any specific drivers of gross margin as you go through the year and any shaping of gross margin that we should be mindful of given comparisons to last year? Thank you.

Michelle Gass

You know, I'll take the first one and then Harmit can take that second question. So as it relates to wholesale, really where we're seeing the improvement is, I'll call it in full price wholesale. So it is in our partners, largely in department stores, and we're really excited with the progress.
So far, the Levi's brand, U.S. wholesale, this past quarter, we were positive second consecutive quarter of being positive sell in, and we're also seeing improved sell-out in that channel. And it really is a direct reaction to the actions that we've taken say the congestion issues that we had last year in the supply chain are long behind us.
So we are billing at rates, we need to add at normalized levels I'd say the partnerships with our hotel partners have are very, very strong. I mean, this is an important channel as Levi's is an important brand to them. And in I would say, while we talk about rewiring, the company are becoming organized around a DTC. first mentality.
It's our DTC only, wholesale will continue to play a really important role to amplify our brands and to reach consumers where otherwise we win. So it's really important that we win together with these wholesale partners.
But as I said, we're seeing momentum in both sell-in and sell-out. And the single biggest reason is product. And we're bringing a lot of newness to the channel and newness the call in our core denim bottoms and the core is continuing to work.
I mean, I mentioned earlier on in the remarks that we're seeing great traction ongoing with the five oh one, but we're also in the denim cycle of looser bag, you're definitely seeing it women's, but also seeing in men's, though, we're excited for men's to expand their closet with looser fits as well. And for women, there's so much going on, as Lou said, there's Baguio there is low rise, yes, rib cage on high-rise continues to do well.
And then also what's happening in fabrications, fabric innovation. So and having denim that people can wear year-round. So performance cool is one of the innovations that actually started to solve the need in Asia with warm temperatures.
I'd say last year we made comments on that when the when the season got really hot, we didn't have enough offerings satisfy that need. We're now spending performance coal around the world, which we expect is going to really help, you know, our year as we look ahead.
And I think in particular in Europe, as I was just talking about momentum there and here in the US as well that being picked up by wholesale partners, too. Lightweight went to lightweight denim as well as part of this warm weather solution.
And then of course, there's non-denim and we have been. So pleased to see the response in the non-denim areas with our latest innovation being the Tech Pack, which is just getting started in DTC and wholesale off to a great start is exceeding our expectations. We're chasing into inventory, and we have more expansions of the platform to come this year.
So there's a lot working. We'll stay really close to our partners to make it make sure that we can maintain and build on that momentum.

Harmit Singh

And then a real question on gross margins. A strong start to the year and that has allowed us to raise the full year expectation, as you've heard. So what's driving the strong start to the year in our product costs in coming to normal levels? So if you think about the $240 million -- 240 basis points, about 150 basis points is driven by product costs, but 110 is driven by the mix of DTC, half of that is the SAP ERP implementation that impacted Q1 of that have continued growth in our DTC business and the structural improvements in international, et cetera, as well as the strong women's business.
In the quarter, FX was a headwind, and in the quarter, we are analyzing the pricing initiatives that we reduced prices in quarter three of last year. So that's really Q1. Q2, you know, and as you probably know, if you go back and look at history, Q2 gross margins traditionally a lower than Q1, largely due to channel mix and is usually about 100 basis points lower than Q1.
However, we expect Q2 to be around 58.2%, and that is practically a record high by the only time we had a higher margin in Q2 was last year because DTC was a bigger piece of the business. So the underlying factors which is product cost, lower product costs, lower airfreight and others continue, you know, through or through Q2.
FX was a bit of a tailwind a year ago. It's a bit of a headwind this year, and it's largely a first half issue. So we expect H1 gross margin to be about 100 basis points better than a year ago. Second half of the year, gross margin should be up about 200 basis points, largely because we would have analyzed the price reduction and weak and DTC will momentum, we believe will continue to extra. So that's helped gross margins. So that's how we're thinking about gross margin between H1 and H2 and on a full-year basis.

Dana Telsey

Thank you very much.

Harmit Singh

Thanks, Dana.

Operator

Thank you. Jay Sole, UBS.

Jay Sole

Great. Thank you so much. Michelle, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you saw a lot of opportunity to improve the four-wall economics of the Company stores. Maybe can you just elaborate on that a little bit? Where do you see the opportunities?
And if you can put that in context, if US maybe like the top three or four margin drivers that you see that get the margins that mid-teens level over the next few years, what would those be. Thank you.

Michelle Gass

You bet. You bet. No, it's a huge focus for us as we think about the future of our business on the growth really coming from DTC. It's critical for us. We get the structural economics of the digital channel to work harder for us.
And we have a lot of efforts deferred both in our stores and on e-commerce, specific to our stores, I'll talk about first, the top line drivers and then some of the other opportunities we have on profitability.
But the first, the first and biggest priority for us is to drive the top line. You get the top line benefit, of course, would be it helps you leverage all your fixed costs. As you know, on your fixed real estate ex labor and the like.
And as it relates to the top line drivers, I would say a couple of things on some of these are just the basics like making sure that you're always in-stock on the key items and the teams have enhanced better tools today than they did even a year ago on systems and accountability to make sure that on X number of top SKUs know things like your 5/11 top washes, why you're low boost our introduction for women or whatever those might be that we're not out of stock on the key sizes.
And doing that on has, as we shared the results, that's had a direct effect and some of the results we're seeing even this past quarter.
Secondly is about innovation and newness. And, you know, in a store who's thinking about the store, the consumer wants a more comprehensive head-to-toe look, and we're getting a lot more disciplined in how we're introducing newness, literally on a monthly basis, making sure it all through the lens of the Levi's brand and the close-in opportunities we see and I spoke to it in the remarks is the whole head to toe denim dressing.
We are the authority and denim bottoms, and we're expanding that to be the authority in denim, everything and categories like skirts and dresses, they're comping at triple digit. I mean, which just says there's so much opportunity, right?
Like we should have the iconic denim skirt for everyone who wants it and that we're not there yet. I mean that triple digits would say there's a lot more upside, same with top, what's the perfect black T-shirt white T-shirt to go through bottoms. These kind of things on not only can drive traffic, but they drive conversion.
They drive EPT. and A., you are we are actually seeing UPT and AUR increases based on the actions we're taking on the product side, in addition to product, that's really around our teams in the stores and done and having them encouraging the upsell and the complementary sell.
So they're doing that. We're seeing the upsell. Those are just a couple of examples as it relates to costs, the single biggest opportunity we have is becoming an expert in labor deployment and how we manage labor from the moment you open the door to the moment you close it and how you navigate days of the week, et cetera. And so a lot of focus and effort, we're starting to see the early.

Jay Sole

Got it. Thank you so much.

Michelle Gass

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Oliver Chen, TD Cowen.

Oliver Chen

Thank you very much, Michelle. Hi Harmit. And women's tops and dresses as a clearly a big, nice opportunity. What's ahead for timing of that how it can and will drive upside to the model and moving the needle even more.
And as we think about your DTC first opportunity and strategy ahead, what do you think about speed and inventory management as well as the reality of markdown management and the cost method of accounting and making sure you're thinking about gross margin return on inventories as you become more agile and also balance novelty versus core and also look to increase inventory flows and frequency to being agile with the customer. Thank you.

Michelle Gass

Okay. Thanks, Oliver. I'll take first and then Harmit to take the second piece. We're seeing traction already, Oliver. I mean to the comments we made earlier DTC to be up 8% in the quarter, 25% on a two year basis.
The momentum is actually accelerating quarter on quarter, which is fantastic. And as it relates to women's, I called out DTC up 14% overall, up 19% in the U.S., and that's both tops and bottoms. So bottoms up, total Company DTC. bottoms up 13%, women's tops up 13% total company.
So we're seeing traction in both, and that's only going to grow from here. So and as it relates to bottoms, strength, strengthen things like the Fiber One continues. But the boot had the flares nine is the Bagdad all doing really well as fashion fit.
And then on the top, what's really resonating with her are things like non graphic tees, woven shirts, outerwear and others. Speaking to a minute ago, the tall head to toe denim on skirts and dresses is off the charts and we are chasing into what's working today and the assortment only gets more robust.
I'll quickly just answer your question on speed and go-to market for us is one of our top priorities as we make this pivot to DGC. and we are looking to literally shave months off of our process from concept to consumer site. Stay tuned on that. And we're already doing that in certain categories as we're chasing into them.

Harmit Singh

Hey, to your question about markdowns and inventory turns, all of I'd say that's an opportunity for us. We can turn inventory faster in our stores and our markdown cadence, given all the new products that we are introducing, I think we can get a lot more scientific, and that's where we feel and the productivity opportunity in DTC is pretty high and large, and that's what we're working on as part of Project Fuel.

Oliver Chen

A quick follow-up for me. On your guidance assumptions around margins. What was merchandise margin or what was the merchandise margin assumptions if there's ones we should be attuned to for the year? Thanks, everybody. Best regards.

Harmit Singh

Yes, the we haven't gone into those specifics, Oliver, but I'd say if you're asking specifically relative to markdowns and discounts, the margins are really driven in our view by the structural improvements in the business, which is really a women's business and our growth in our DTC channel. I think those are the factors and driving the margin, then that's why it's more sustainable longer.

Oliver Chen

Thank you very much.

Harmit Singh

Thanks.

Michelle Gass

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Chris Nardone, BofA.

Chris Nardone

Thank you, guys. Good afternoon. Can you help us unpack the strength you're seeing in the North America retail business. I'd be curious if you're able to help us quantify the trends you're seeing in the outlet business?
First, digital and then versus full-price stores? And then as a related follow-up, just curious if you can help us quantify how we should think about the impact to these 100 net new doors to your total sales growth for the full year? Thank you very much.

Harmit Singh

Yes, I'd say to your first question, the growth in DTC in the US is broadly across all three channels in our main line is really strong, okay? Outlet is probably as strong but less stronger. And our e-commerce business is actually doing fairly well. And so I would I would just say if you want to rank it, mainline, e-commerce and outlet, but all three strong from that perspective.
And broadly, what we're seeing is largely driven by traffic and as well as higher UPT and AUR conversion. It's an opportunity for us, and that's why we feel that this can only get better over time. And we are seeing the basket size improved because of newness that Michelle talked about and better in-stock, which is really helping the case from that perspective.
I think you had a second question, Jay -- sorry, sorry, Chris, what was the second question, Chris?

Chris Nardone

Yes, sure. I just wanted to see if we can talk about the impact you expect to see from these 100 net new doors, is it impactful to the 1% to 3% total growth you're expecting? And then if you could kind of clarify where these new doors will be opening?

Harmit Singh

Well, just so you know, the 1% to 3% is impacted by the 200 basis points of a headwind because of the exit of Denizen and the home and the other and the other things that we spoke about. I mean the but the gross number is more 3% to 5%. The 100 net new doors, 70% of them are skewed to the second half. So you see partial impact this year were probably more the following year.
And as you think about what's driving the DTC business, the number that we have kind of talked about, which is high single digit, low double digit. A large piece of that is gone growth in existing stores, followed equally between e-commerce and new stores. So I think, you know, comp stores being the main driver and then equally split between the other two. (multiple speakers)
And know we do have Chris, so we have a very disciplined process where every year, we review how the fleet is performing and you determine the return on invested capital and return on invested capital is in the high teens. And so it encourages us to actually invest more capital and grow the store base longer term.

Operator

Thank you. Tracy Kogan, Citi.

Tracy Kogan

Hi this is Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I think you guys said Europe DTC was up double digits in February and that has continued into March. And I was just wondering what March versus January and February looked like in the other regions.
And then just a follow up on gross margin. I think from Harvey, you laid out the drivers, the 240 basis point increase, but what were the drivers and that drove it above your expectation of up to 150 basis points? What came in better? Thanks.

Harmit Singh

Yes, I think as I've mentioned the Tracy, your second question, I kind of broke up the 240, 150 in product cost, lower product costs and the channel mix of which half of the channel mix was about 100 basis points. But half of that was the ERP driven shift.
And then you had other factors like lower airfreight, et cetera, offset by FX headwinds and offset by the annualization of the US price reduction. And so that's really what drove the Q1, what was better than what we anticipated, was it just the strength in the DTC business that was strong that kind of helped out as of quarter, the U.S. is a big piece of that, but the US was up 10% on DTC. So that was the factor that, you know, drove the upside.
To your second question, which was to do. But yes, we don't go into the specifics of Tracy, but you're a Europe started soft and has accelerated, as Michelle said, once the new products were introduced and that I think drove some consumer demand and actually helped them unlock some of the open to buy from our wholesale customers. And we are seeing that generally both in the US and in Europe. And so that's a positive sign.

Tracy Kogan

So again, it has improved, at least generally speaking in the US and Asia as well, generally similar to Europe. Is that fair?

Harmit Singh

Yes, I would say you know, US and Europe in terms of the exit strong, stronger Asia has been strong all along. So I think Asia generally it is performing well. Other than China was a little soft in the Middle East impact we are seeing because Asia it the handles the Middle East.

Tracy Kogan

Thank you, guys. Good luck.

Harmit Singh

Thanks Tracy.

Michelle Gass

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley.

Alex Straton

Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. I just have a couple for you. First, maybe for Michelle and I piggyback off. The last one is just I mean, taking a step back, how would you describe the state of the consumer, I think now versus three months ago? Just trying to get a sense for if it's the same, better or worse.
And then a second one, maybe for me, just on North America margins, they definitely expanded nicely year over year. They're above pre-pandemic levels, but they are below where we were during COVID, I think about 20%. So what's holding that back? And is that 20% level achievable in the future for North America?
Thanks a lot.

Michelle Gass

I'll take the first one really quickly. And in a nutshell, I'd say we're feeling better about the consumer than we did three to six months ago. We're seeing lots of evidence of that, both in terms of our overall category, the denim space and stabilization.
We're seeing there in our biggest market, in particular, the expectation globally in the denim category to be up in the mid-single digits. And how we are seeing our own consumer response, both in our DTC. performance has been talked about quite a bit with our DTC business, up 8% in USGDC., up 10% on the gains with the middle income consumer and just market share gains across the board.
So we're optimistic more optimistic than I'd say we were three to six months ago.

Harmit Singh

And on the profitability in the US, yes, you're right. It's a lot more profitable then definitely a year ago. And that's obviously driven by gross margin and better management of labor, et cetera. And that we've talked about is not all the way to 20%, largely because when it was 20%, we were growing at a faster clip and including in wholesale. And that's something that is an opportunity for us. But as we unlock growth, which we are confident of doing as the year progresses, that should flowing through the bottom line.

Alex Straton

Thanks a lot. Good luck.

Harmit Singh

Thanks, Alex.

Michelle Gass

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to the company for any closing remarks.

Michelle Gass

Thanks, everyone, and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Have a great rest of your day.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Please disconnect your lines at this time.