Putin expected to tout China's 'premier importance' in Russian foreign policy and trade, as Beijing seeks 'delicate balance'

Analysts expected Ukraine and the Brics summit to be among the top issues on the table during Vladimir Putin's meetings in Beijing, as the Russian president again commended China's peace efforts in the warring region ahead of his arrival.

Putin's two-day stopover this week - just seven months since his last visit - will include an agenda that stretches from the war in Ukraine to anticipation from the Global South bloc for an annual summit in October, which could see new joiners announced.

The topics were teased in a written interview with Chinese state news agency Xinhua, where Putin reaffirmed the "unprecedented level of strategic partnership" between the two countries despite a "difficult global situation".

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Putin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, told Russian media that Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will sign a declaration to step up the strategic partnership and ministers from both sides will sign 11 inter-governmental documents.

The visit will include a one-on-one talk, a walk through a park, and tea and dinner together, he added.

Putin will also visit Harbin, capital of China's northernmost Heilongjiang province, which neighbours Russia, and speak with students at the Harbin Institute of Technology, according to Wednesday's press conference at the Kremlin.

Moscow-based analyst Andrew Korybko said Putin intended to use the trip to signal China's "premier importance" in Russia's foreign policy and trade relations, and to reciprocate after Xi made Russia his first overseas destination since beginning his third term in March last year.

Korybko said Putin would like to personally invite Xi to the Brics summit, to be held in the city of Kazan in southwest Russia, and work towards "financial multipolarity", through de-dollarisation, a reference to creating alternative non-Western financial payment systems, and a Brics basket currency.

"Expanding the number of formal Brics members and affiliates will certainly be discussed, but it is premature to speculate on the content," Korybko said, adding that while a larger bloc could "speed up multipolarity processes", it might also result in disunity.

Andy Mok, a senior research fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation, a non-governmental think tank in Beijing, said the talks were urgent because of "US-induced global instability" and an "increasingly weaponised global financial system".

"They will push for Brics expansion to counterbalance Western influence and fortify ties with emerging economies," Mok said.

Brics recently welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as new members. Putin said their "seamless integration" would be one of Russia's main goals as "we are actively assisting them in joining the existing network of cooperation mechanisms".

Korybko said Xi's recent meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron over Ukraine may figure into the discussions, as Beijing seeks to mediate the conflict.

"Beijing is well aware of its causes and global geopolitical significance, which is reflected in its 12-point plan ... published in February 2023," Putin wrote in his response to Xinhua. "The ideas and proposals contained in the document show the genuine desire of our Chinese friends to help stabilise the situation."

However, Putin said Beijing's initiatives were not supported by Kyiv and its Western allies, and that "they are not ready to engage in an equal, honest and open dialogue based on mutual respect and consideration of each other's interests".

Zhang Chi, an associate lecturer of international relations at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, said Beijing's continued stance on the conflict may prove to be a "stumbling block" in Sino-European economic relations.

"While China is eager to expand its exports, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy is complicated by the war in Ukraine, which has become a significant point of friction between the two powers and threatens to strain political relations further," Zhang said.

Germany's previous reliance on Russian natural gas and subsequent challenges served as a "cautionary tale" for Europe to become more wary about depending on another single source, particularly China in terms of technology, Zhang argued.

"As Europe reassesses its supply chains and strategic partnerships, the balance between engagement with China and maintaining its own strategic autonomy becomes more delicate," Zhang said.

Recent developments in Ukraine, including a US Congress bill to provide an additional US$61 billion in military aid to the embattled nation, as well as Denmark, the Netherlands, and the US committing to deliver F-16 fighter jets, make the war a "critical topic" in Putin and Xi's talks.

"These moves are perceived by Russia and China as exacerbating tensions, prompting discussions on a coordinated response to what they see as heightened Western involvement," Zhang said, adding that China would seek a "delicate balance".

Beijing-based political analyst Xu Qinduo said Beijing would continue an independent foreign policy in which Moscow was a partner on global security and the West a trade counterpart.

"In a sense, [Putin's trip] is more significant for Russia than for China as Moscow is at war with the West and needs to maintain a strong and growing relationship with China - the world's second largest economy and a tech powerhouse," Xu said.

Xu added that Xi may want to discuss the possibility of an Olympic truce, after Macron called for China to join his push for a "moment of diplomatic peace" during the Paris Olympic Games, which begin in July.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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