As Philippines plans to upgrade South China Sea outposts, Beijing weighs options

Beijing likely views Manila's plan to upgrade its South China Sea outposts as a provocation, but it appears to be taking a "wait and see" approach rather than reacting swiftly, according to analysts.

Observers said Beijing would likely succeed in disrupting Manila's project - if it indeed goes ahead - but any US involvement in helping the Philippines would complicate China's available options.

In the past year, tensions have brewed between China and the Philippines over the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef in the South China Sea, resulting in face-offs involving lasers, water cannons and collisions near several military outposts in the strategically important waterway.

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Philippine military chief Romeo Brawner last week announced a plan to upgrade all nine territorial features Manila occupies in the region - mostly islands, shoals and reefs - by installing desalination machines and communications equipment and making other improvements for troops deployed there.

The military also plans to install desalination machines on the BRP Sierra Madre, an ageing warship that was deliberately grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to assert Manila's territorial claims. Brawner noted that the ship would not be fortified as part of the development plan.

China has regularly sent ships to patrol the area and has urged the Philippines to remove the rusting vessel based on what it described as a "promise" by Manila. However, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has denied the promise was ever made.

Beijing's response to Manila's plan has been muted so far, with the Chinese foreign ministry warning that it firmly opposed "illegal construction" on the Philippines-controlled islands and reefs.

Chinese defence ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Wu Qian issued a similar warning on Thursday, saying the Philippines should take responsibility for deteriorating ties between the countries and urging Manila to avoid the "wrong path".

"We urge the Philippine side to respect history, recognise the reality, and do not go further down the wrong path ... However, if the Philippine side insists on taking its own course, we will surely take firm countermeasures," he added.

Zhang Mingliang, an associate professor specialising in Southeast Asian studies at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said China was taking a "wait and see approach" right now.

According to Zhang, Beijing is probably sceptical about whether the upgrades will be carried out as there have been other occasions when the Philippines announced projects that were never completed.

He added that Beijing might be observing the situation and holding back from responding until the Philippines took concrete steps to implement the upgrade.

"It is still too early to tell whether Manila's plan will move forward ... and Beijing will respond resolutely and impose a blockade on [Philippine] vessels if they proceed," Zhang added.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, agreed that Beijing's response was largely as expected, but it was still too early for a fierce reaction.

"What China is trying to do is to simply maintain a certain escalation ladder. So by first sending a verbal warning, it tests the response of Manila and sees what Manila will do next, and then Beijing will calibrate the response thereafter," Koh said.

"Obviously, Beijing will not view the upgrade plan kindly, and it will view it as Manila's provocation."

However, Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Beijing had no choice but to act strongly to deter Manila.

"A key concern for Beijing is that if it does not respond forcefully enough to Manila's assertions of sovereignty, the Marcos administration will - from China's point of view - take even more public and provocative actions," Hsiao said.

Koh said Manila's decision to make upgrades came later than might be expected, as its outposts in the South China Sea were less developed than those of other claimant states.

He said the main purpose of the Philippines' plan was to maintain a constant presence in the South China Sea to offset its lack of capable offshore vessels. Upgrading facilities on these features could help minimise the frequency of vessel rotations and resupply missions, Koh added.

According to Brawner, the Philippines' upgrade plan will cover Thitu Island, Nanshan Island, as well as the Second Thomas Shoal, known as Renai Jiao in China and Ayungin to the Philippines.

Thitu Island, known to Manila as Pag-asa and to China as Zhongye, lies about 500km (310 miles) west of the Philippine island of Palawan. It is the largest feature occupied by Manila in the region, with a coastguard station, an airstrip and a landing ramp, and is home to around 200 people.

Experts agreed that if the Philippines went forward with the plan, it would amount to heightened tensions between the two countries, and any possible external help for Manila could complicate Beijing's calibrations.

"If Manila decides to proceed with the construction activities unilaterally, then there is a good chance that Beijing will blockade and might be successful in disrupting this project," Koh said, adding that having external help would give Manila the best chances of success.

However, he noted that Beijing might play the long game by imposing a blockade around the Second Thomas Shoal and thwarting any incoming Philippine vessels carrying materials, without necessarily ramping up tensions.

"If they keep doing that, then it may reach a point where Manila will be frustrated and give up on the project," Koh said.

Nonetheless, the Philippines is the only country involved in the South China Sea disputes that maintains a mutual defence treaty with the United States, meaning that any armed attack on Philippine public vessels, aircraft and armed forces would oblige the US to help.

"The only question is whether the Americans will actually help. Because when the Americans keep talking about ironclad commitment to the alliance, they never say to what extent," Koh said.

"Does it mean the US will stand by Manila's actions all the time and for all scenarios?"

Under the Marcos administration, Manila has stepped up its defence posture against what it called China's "aggressive activities" in the waterway and has regularly publicised Beijing's actions.

Security engagement between the Philippines and like-minded countries has increased and American air and naval forces have become more visible in the area.

In November, the US and the Philippines conducted their first maritime and air patrols and held three days of military drills near Taiwan and the South China Sea, while their second joint patrol finished in early January.

Several days after the first patrol with the US in November, the Philippines also conducted a joint patrol with Australia. Japan, another of Washington's regional allies, has also provided Manila coastal surveillance radars and patrol vessels.

Considering Washington and its allies, Beijing must walk a delicate balance, Hsiao said.

Beijing has to show force to re-establish control in its dynamic with Manila while avoiding direct confrontation with the US and preventing it from deepening its security commitments with the Philippines, she said.

Observers said that if Washington actively supported Manila's construction activities, tensions would escalate. This would complicate China's available options because it would then have to directly confront American vessels.

"The degree of Beijing's strong response depends on the scenario itself. So how many options are available to Beijing?" Koh said.

He said that if Beijing only needed to deal with Manila, it would have a lot more options, "but if the US is involved, its options are more constrained".

Last weekend, the Philippines was reported to have successfully resupplied personnel stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre through airdrops - a method it last used in 2014.

But experts said airdrops were not very efficient as they could only deliver a limited amount of supplies and were constrained by weather and water conditions.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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