New North Korean rocket launch system and risk of arms race poses new puzzle for China

North Korea's development of a new rocket launcher control system could speed up the region's arms race and prove "tricky" for China, an analyst has said.

Pyongyang said on Monday it had successfully developed controllable shells and a new ballistic control system for a multiple rocket launcher.

According to South Korea's Yonhap news agency, North Korean state media said the development of the 240mm-calibre multiple rocket launcher shells and its ballistic control system would make a "qualitative change in our army's multiple rocket launcher force".

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The North Korean Academy of Defence Science also conducted a test firing of the new controllable shells on Sunday, the report added.

Ryu Yong-wook , a China and Korea affairs specialist at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said the development would further advance Pyongyang's missile and delivery capabilities and strengthen its offensive capacity.

"It will increase the military tensions in the Korean peninsula at a time when there is a deadlock in inter-Korean relations and will likely intensify an arms race in a region that is already fraught with multiple flashpoints," he said.

North Korea has in recent months ramped up its missiles and weapons tests, including a test launch of a new strategic cruise missile - the Pulhwasal-3-31 - from a submarine last month.

In December, Pyongyang test-fired its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile that has the potential to reach the United States, drawing condemnation from the US, South Korea and Japan.

But more than just boosting North Korea's military capabilities, "China is in a tricky situation", said Ryu.

On one hand, China wants stability on the Korean peninsula, which pushes it to limit Pyongyang's "aggressive and belligerent behaviour".

But on the other hand, against the backdrop of a deepening US-China rivalry and greater security cooperation between the US and South Korea, the "strategic utility of North Korea increases for Beijing".

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches a test of the Pulhwasal-3-31 missile. Photo: AFP alt=North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches a test of the Pulhwasal-3-31 missile. Photo: AFP>

"Hence, China might become more tolerant of the North's wayward external behaviour," Ryu said.

Sunday's weapons test came weeks after officials from China and North Korea met.

During talks in Beijing, the Chinese Communist Party's diplomatic chief Liu Jianchao told North Korean ambassador Ri Ryong-nam that China would "deepen strategic communications ... [and] safeguard regional peace and stability".

Pyongyang has accused Washington and Seoul of escalating tensions with large-scale military drills. Last month it said it had tested an underwater nuclear attack drone in response to a joint naval exercise between the United States, South Korea and Japan.

Ryu suggested that the latest development may be related to the recent warming of North Korea's ties with Russia.

He said North Korea may have received missile-related technology from Russia in exchange for supplying weapons and ammunition. Pyongyang has previously denied US claims it has been providing artillery shells and rockets for use in the war against Ukraine.

"If so, this may be a concern to Beijing, as it suggests that Pyongyang is being more autonomous from Beijing's influence," Ryu said.

He suggested that China would start offering economic incentives to entice North Korea if it thought Pyongyang was moving away from its orbit, adding that one indicator would be an increase in the number of official interactions between both sides.

"Whether North Korea will stick to its pledge to maintain regional peace is an irrelevant point, given its past record. Words are cheap for North Korea," he said.

What was important, Ryu added, was whether North Korea was in a position to start a major military conflict, which would depend on support from China and Russia - something neither would currently see as being in their interests.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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