No change after Taiwan election to 'basic fact' there is only one China: Wang Yi

Taiwan's election result cannot change the "basic fact" that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of it. That is Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's message to the international community as world leaders parse the outcome of Saturday's vote.

Wang said the result would "not change the prevailing consensus" held by the global community on the need to adhere to the one-China principle, according to a statement released on Monday by the Chinese embassy in Washington.

"We believe that the international community, in accordance with the one-China principle, will continue to support the just cause of the Chinese people in striving for national reunification and opposing the separatist activities of seeking Taiwan's independence," he said.

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Much of Wang's language in the statement - based on comments he made in Cairo on Sunday - has been employed repeatedly by Beijing. But his remarks come at a time when global capitals are watching closely for the mainland's reaction to the poll.

William Lai Ching-te of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected Taiwan's president with 40 per cent of the vote in a three-way race, against the strong wishes of mainland China.

Beijing worked hard in the run up to Saturday's ballot to tip the balance in favour of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and upstart Taiwan People's Party (TPP), which briefly proposed a combined ticket before the deal fell apart.

The mainland expanded cyber campaigns, threatened trade sanctions, flew balloons towards the self-governing island and framed the vote as a choice between "war and peace".

Beijing also sent a pre-emptive delegation to the US for meetings with senior Washington officials held hours before the election, only to see the DPP become the first party to win three consecutive terms.

At a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry in Cairo, Wang said that Taiwan's independence has never been possible in the past and "certainly won't be possible in the future".

Wang, who served as director of the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office from 2008 to 2013, added that those who "seek Taiwan's independence to split the Chinese territory" will be "severely punished" by history and the law.

Analysts said that beyond the signals Wang's comments were meant to convey globally, they were also aimed at Taiwan.

"China's trying to tell the world they're unhappy, that they wish it had gone the other way but, as in previous times, they'll manage their way through it as long as nobody pushes too far," said Richard Boucher, a fellow at Brown University's Watson Institute.

"They're also signalling to the new administration [in Taiwan] that all they have to do is say the magic words 'one China'. But I'm not sure that's going to happen, said Boucher, a former US consul general in Hong Kong.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Like most countries, the US does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state.

But Washington maintains robust unofficial ties with Taipei, including a delegation of former US officials on the island this week, and is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force, as well as committed to supplying it with weapons - positions that anger Beijing.

Analysts said the immediate post-election period is a particularly sensitive time as Beijing, Washington and Taipei circle each other warily in advance of Lai's inauguration speech in May and the US presidential election in November.

"The key question moving forward is whether the US election and the prospects of new leadership in Washington will deter provocative statements and actions in the Taiwan Strait," said Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

"If Beijing can take a wait-and-see approach, Lai will have some time to prove he can manage the cross-strait relationship pragmatically and keep the most strident elements of his party in line."

But unfolding dynamics in the Taiwanese legislature, where the opposition KMT and TPP did relatively well, will also be in play.

"The ball is in the court of Taiwan's politicians to come up with a working relationship between the major parties that leaves less room for Beijing to actively widen those divisions," Daniels said.

Wang appeared to take the long view on Sunday, saying that any quest for Taiwan's independence was "a dead-end road". China will "eventually achieve complete reunification" and see Taiwan return to the "embrace of the motherland", he added.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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