Next stop: Serbia? Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to visit Europe on trust-building tour

Chinese President Xi Jinping's possible trip to Europe is seen as another step towards rebuilding trust with the continent, as both sides eye pragmatic cooperation despite geopolitical frictions, according to observers.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's announcement of Xi's coming visit to his country offered the first confirmation of the Chinese leader's trip to Europe this year, after months of speculation about his plan to visit the continent. Beijing has not confirmed Xi will visit Europe this year or indicated a potential itinerary.

France is also expected to be a stop on his trip after Xi accepted Emmanuel Macron's invitation to visit during the French president's visit to China last year.

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If the trip to Europe is confirmed, it would mark Xi's first Europe tour since resuming in-person diplomacy following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ding Yifan, a Europe specialist at the State Council's Development Research Centre, said a trip by Xi would be a chance for China and Europe to reduce "misperceptions" about each other.

"The mass media in China thinks Europe is a follower of the US ... the mainstream media in Europe also thinks China supports Russia [in the Ukraine conflict]," he said.

"The main thing is that the two sides are caught in tensions and do not trust each other. Therefore, these political leaders want to strengthen communication through these political exchanges."

China's relations with Europe have been largely strained in recent years over the Ukraine conflict and escalating rivalries between Beijing and Washington. While many European countries remain suspicious over Beijing's ties with Moscow, they are also under immense pressure to join US efforts to limit China's access to critical material and technologies over national security concerns.

Both sides have also traded accusations of unfair competition and protectionism about the EU's trade imbalance of about €400 billion (US$433 billion).

Tensions have been rising since the EU started an investigation into Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers over state subsidies in October and China last month launched an anti-dumping inquiry into brandy sales.

Beijing and Brussels have been engaging in high-level exchanges since China reopened after the pandemic, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting China in November 2022 and planning to visit again in April. EU leaders Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel as well as Macron all visited China last year.

Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa, an EU-Asia analyst with the Asia Global Institute of the University of Hong Kong, said the EU-China summit held in Beijing in December and co-chaired by Chinese Premier Li Qiang, marked a "significant mutual shift in perspective".

"Both sides aimed for deeper mutual understanding and made efforts to prevent conflict," Trillo-Figueroa said.

He said both sides now acknowledged the importance of strategic dialogue to focus on core issues such as their trade relations, which indicated a shift towards "pragmatic realpolitik rather than symbolic disputes".

The summit in December saw the EU leaders stand firm on the long-standing economic imbalances between Beijing and Brussels, and China's business links in aiding Russia's war efforts in Ukraine. Both sides rejected the idea of decoupling from each other and agreed to continue pragmatic cooperation in areas such as climate change and artificial intelligence.

Trillo-Figueroa added that while China was moving to revive in-person diplomacy with Europe, it prioritised Germany and France. But if Serbia was chosen as a first nation to visit in Xi's Europe tour, it would send a "strategic message" to other European leaders.

"Selecting Serbia for this first visit makes a bold diplomatic statement, potentially reshaping the priorities of European leaders in their future engagements," he said.

China has long had strong ties with Serbia, which supports Beijing's sovereignty over Taiwan and is an important partner of China's Belt and Road Initiative in the Balkans. Beijing did not recognise Kosovo - which declared its independence from Serbia in 2008 - as a country.

Belgrade has also maintained close ties with Moscow during the Ukraine war, frustrating many European nations.

Ding said France was likely to be a destination on Xi's potential Europe tour because this year marked the 60th anniversary of China-France bilateral ties, and "France's stance is very critical in the West".

Macron has long advocated for Europe's "strategic autonomy" and urged the continent not to become a "vassal" of the US or get caught up in its escalating tensions with China. China has often echoed his idea, urging Europe to adhere to this principle amid geopolitical complexities.

Victor Gao, vice-president of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation and chair professor of Soochow University in Jiangsu province, said China was expected to make the same call again if Xi went to Europe.

"China is very willing to dance a tango with Europe, to focus on economic and technological cooperation ... but not engage in ideological [confrontation]," he said.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.