Yahoo Finance Mike Johnson's 'two-step' gambit faces critical House test as shutdown looms
House Speaker Mike Johnson wants to muscle through a controversial plan to push Washington's ongoing spending fights into 2024, preventing a looming shutdown that could cut off paychecks for TSA workers ahead of a busy holiday travel week.
The speaker's gambit to avoid a Nov. 18 government stoppage is a "two-step" approach announced in a 32-page bill released over the weekend. It would keep one swath of the government funded until Jan. 19 and other departments funded into February.
Johnson's bill is likely to be considered by the full House in the coming days.
Expectations are low that the government will actually shut down this weekend. Many observers expect that either Johnson's plan will pass or another idea — like a one-step plan being considered in the Senate — will reach President Biden's desk before the Friday night deadline.
But this week still promises to be bumpy after Moody's issued another warning about the US fiscal situation Friday by changing its outlook on the US government to negative.
"Continued political polarization in the US Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus," added the ratings agency in its announcement.
And there is already some opposition to Johnson's plan. At issue for many Republicans is that what Johnson is proposing would keep the entire government funded for a few more months at levels agreed to back in 2022 — without any other GOP demands.
This approach is adamantly opposed by far-right House members who like to note that it means keeping the government open at "Pelosi levels."
A play to put 'House Republicans in the best position'
Johnson’s case in response is that pushing the deadline is a calibrated move to give his side maximum leverage down the line.
"This two-step continuing resolution is a necessary bill to place House Republicans in the best position to fight for conservative victories," he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, over the weekend.
The idea is that House Republicans will have maximum leverage if a provision agreed to in this year’s debt-ceiling deal to cut all federal spending by 1% is pressing down on politically popular programs. Those across-the-board cuts would go into effect in 2024 if Republicans and Democrats fail to reach an agreement on the entire fiscal year.
Johnson’s bill doesn’t address other pressing issues like additional money for Israel, Ukraine, or the southern border — leaving those to be fought over separately in the weeks ahead.
The speaker's plan also bears similarities to the deal that staved off a government shutdown in September but got then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy ousted after a right-wing revolt.
Already, at least three GOP lawmakers have stated their opposition to Johnson's bill. With that number almost sure to grow, the plan will likely die if Democrats oppose it en masse.
Signals from the left are mixed. The White House released a scathing statement over the weekend against the idea but there are other signs that Johnson’s plan could earn at least some Democratic votes.
For one, House Democratic leaders haven’t announced they will recommend a no vote against it. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Sunday on NBC’s "Meet the Press" that he'd strongly prefer a one-step approach but nonetheless added that while Johnson's plan "looks gimmicky to me, but I’m open to what the House is talking about."
First stop: The House Rule committee
The first step will be Monday afternoon and a hearing of the House rules committee at 4 p.m. ET. At least one GOP member of that committee, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.), has already come out against the bill.
Roy recently wrote that his opposition to the idea "cannot be overstated."
Roy and other hardliners could move to block the bill at the rules committee level, though Johnson then could still try to force a vote on the full floor. Either way, the speaker appears all but certain to need some level of Democratic support to get his idea passed when it's considered by the full House as early as Tuesday.
Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, predicted in a note to clients Monday that the simple fact of this week coming ahead of Thanksgiving will likely be enough to force Congress push the showdown into 2024.
His concern is that it's missing the larger picture with the continued infighting.
"Moody's cited ‘dysfunction’ in last week's downgrade, but its scolding falls on deaf ears on Capitol Hill."
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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