Have you been paying attention to shares of M/I Homes (MHO)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 9.1% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $75.45 in the previous session. M/I Homes has gained 63% since the start of the year compared to the 19.6% move for the Zacks Construction sector and the 37% return for the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on April 26, 2023, M/I Homes reported EPS of $3.64 versus consensus estimate of $2.36.
For the current fiscal year, M/I Homes is expected to post earnings of $12.40 per share on $3.71 billion in revenues. This represents a -30.1% change in EPS on a -10.15% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $13.17 per share on $3.91 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 6.21% and 5.22%, respectively.
M/I Homes may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
M/I Homes has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are B and D, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 6.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 9.2X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 4X versus its peer group's average of 5.6X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, M/I Homes currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if M/I Homes meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though M/I Homes shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.
How Does MHO Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of MHO have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH). MTH has a Zacks Rank of # 2 (Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of B, and a Momentum Score of D.
Earnings were strong last quarter. Meritage Homes Corporation beat our consensus estimate by 41.04%, and for the current fiscal year, MTH is expected to post earnings of $15.53 per share on revenue of $5.56 billion.
Shares of Meritage Homes Corporation have gained 1.8% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 8.29X and a P/CF of 4.63X.
The Building Products - Home Builders industry is in the top 3% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for MHO and MTH, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.
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