Yahoo Finance Government shutdown: Lawmakers return to Washington with 2 long-shot ideas as time is running out
Lawmakers are back in Washington facing long odds of averting a government shutdown in just four days.
Both chambers returned to work on Tuesday following the Yom Kippur holiday with two last-ditch efforts on the table to head off the standoff — or at least shorten it.
What both efforts have in common is they feature lawmakers searching for an end run around Speaker Kevin McCarthy and a few ultra-conservative members of his caucus. The House Speaker's efforts to make progress have failed again and again in recent weeks.
The first effort is being hatched in the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has readied a plan to give the Senate the option of passing its own bill to avert a shutdown. If successful, the bill would then be sent to the House in an essential dare to McCarthy to table a measure that would likely pass with widespread bipartisan support.
"We are very close to finishing our work and hope to release text very soon," Schumer said Tuesday afternoon.
The second effort is a so-called discharge petition that could allow moderate Republicans in the House to band together with Democrats. That effort faces uncertain support and a series of legislative traps lying in wait if the obscure legislative maneuver is indeed tried in earnest. It also wouldn't avert a shutdown — but could shorten it.
Either option is seen as facing long odds in the days ahead, with a stoppage seen as a foregone conclusion in some quarters and frustration mounting.
“Funding the government is one of the most basic fundamental responsibilities of Congress,” President Biden said Monday, adding that if lawmakers don’t do their job, then perhaps they shouldn’t be in office.
How the Senate could try to jam the House
The approach likely to get the most attention in the coming days will be the Senate effort to force House Republicans' hand.
Schumer set the stage for a standoff when he moved last week to end debate on an unrelated House bill on the Federal Aviation Administration. The maneuver could allow the Senate to amend that bill and likely replace it wholesale with a measure to avert a government shutdown.
It remains unclear exactly what such a Senate bill would look like. On Tuesday morning, Bloomberg reported that Senate Republicans and Democrats are nearing a deal to avert a shutdown for just four to six weeks, likely pushing the standoff into November.
The bill "will continue to fund the government at present levels while maintaining our commitment to Ukraine's security and humanitarian needs while also insuring those impacted by natural disasters across the country being to get the resources they need," said Schumer.
But even if it passes, any bill would still face uncertain prospects in the House. Some lawmakers on McCarthy’s right flank are promising to attempt to oust him if he puts any bill on the floor that is then passed with Democratic support.
Option two: A discharge petition
The other option is a long-shot congressional procedure called a discharge petition. That move would theoretically allow moderate Republicans to team up with Democrats to release a bill from committee and put it up for a full House vote — even over the objections of McCarthy.
The prospects for a bipartisan effort gained new steam in recent days when Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) told NBC they would consider backing the idea. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) added to The Washington Post he could be onboard “if I like the bill they're discharging.”
What gives the prospect a glimmer of hope at this point is that much of the groundwork was laid this spring during the debt ceiling fight. A broadly written discharge petition has already been put in place and has overcome hurdles at the committee level. It's even been signed by all 213 Democrats, requiring five Republicans to join to force a vote.
But even if lawmakers reach a deal and force a vote, a discharge petition would require a wait of around nine legislative days — meaning it wouldn’t avert a shutdown but could potentially lessen it.
Even then, experts have told Yahoo Finance previously that there are countermeasures Speaker McCarthy or conservative Republicans could employ to make the process even more painful or even stop it entirely. Options include forcing the bill to stop in the Rules Committee or dragging out legislative “days” to keep the idea on ice.
All in all, few see a way out of the standoff, at least in the coming days.
There is some optimism that once a shutdown begins, political pressure will increase. In a Yahoo Finance Live Interview on Monday, Strategas Asset Management portfolio manager Courtney Gelman envisioned a scenario where things begin to move when “we're one to two weeks into the shutdown and the Republicans are getting more blame, that might give [McCarthy] the cover that he needs within his own party.”
But the prospects appear minimal until then. As Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist for AGF Investments, wrote in a note to clients Tuesday morning, “We'll stick with our odds that there's a 75% chance of a shutdown.”
This post has been updated.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Click here for politics news related to business and money
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
