German investor morale brightens in October - ZEW

By Maria Martinez

BERLIN (Reuters) -German investor morale improved more than expected in October, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday, as market experts forecast a further decline in inflation while warning the economic situation remained challenging.

The institute's economic sentiment index rose to -1.1 points from -11.4 points in September.

Analysts polled by Reuters had projected an October reading of -9.3.

"It seems that we have passed the lowest point," ZEW president Achim Wambach said.

The expectations index rose for the third straight month, suggesting respondents of this survey expect the economic situation in Germany to improve over the coming six months.

"These figures signal that a rebound is coming, but perhaps a little later than previously expected," said Melanie Debono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. She noted also that any rebound would likely be unimpressive.

With inflation rates expected to decrease further, three-quarters of respondents anticipated stable short-term interest rates in the euro zone, according to the survey.

Factors such as the Israel-Hamas conflict – cited by some respondents as a reason for revising their growth forecasts downward – had only limited impact on the overall more optimistic outlook, Wambach said.

The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has stabilised, falling by only 0.5 points to minus 79.9 points, the institute said.

This means it has now fallen for six successive months and is at its lowest level since August 2020, said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.

"Both the current conditions and expectations measures are far below their long-term averages and are consistent with our view that GDP is contracting," Kenningham said.

(Additional reporting by Rachel More Editing by Deborah Kyvrikosaios and Mark Potter)