Gas prices rise as Americans hit the road for holiday weekend, with more increases expected

Gasoline prices are set to rise in the coming days as a record 70.9 million Americans are forecast to hit the road during the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

On Thursday, the national average price of gas sat at $3.51 per gallon, about $0.02 higher than a week ago and a couple of pennies lower than last year, according to AAA data.

"I expect the national retail price of gasoline to increase $0.05 to $0.10 per gallon over the next seven days," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

The analyst notes crude oil prices have risen roughly about $10 per barrel since June 4, in part due to escalating Middle East tensions. Traders are also monitoring Hurricane Beryl's trajectory, which became the earliest Category 5 storm on record.

“The weather agencies are suggesting that this is going to be a very active hurricane season," TD Cowen managing director Jason Gabelman told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "If [hurricanes] hit the Gulf Coast, it could disrupt that center of US refining capacity, which is about 50% of total capacity in the US."

While Hurricane Beryl is not currently a direct threat to US crude oil production, it’s still on course to potentially hit refineries in Corpus Christi, Texas. The region houses roughly five refineries, which account for 4.8% of the total US refining capacity.

"Since Gulf Coast refiners are already operating at 90% to 95% of their capacity, there is no slack in the system to make up for lost production when a major hurricane shuts down a significant number of refineries for any length of time," said Lipow.

Rising seasonal demand has also helped lift crude prices to two-month highs.

On Thursday, Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, hovered just below $87 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was slightly lower at $83 per barrel.

Lipow has called for $90 Brent given increasing concerns over a broader cross-border conflict in the Middle East, which could eventually see the direct participation of oil producer Iran.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

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