First Eagle Commentary- The Small Idea: The Waiting Is the Hardest Part

As First Eagle's Small Cap team approaches its three-year anniversary, I wanted to take a look back at the performance of our investment universe since we joined the firm in April 2021. In short, small caps failed to deliver the additional reward relative to large caps that has defined their history.

Though smaller stocks were strong early in our tenure and have since demonstrated transient periods of renewed enthusiasm, there is little to celebrate in the small cap space for the period as a whole. The Russell 2000 Index rallied sharply off Covid-19 lows to reach an all-time high in early November 2021 before selling off sharply across the next year or so, losing around 35% from peak to trough.¹ While the S&P 500 Index followed a similar trajectory through this challenging period, the magnitude of its loss was far less and its subsequent rebound far greater. As shown in Exhibit 1 on the following page, these dynamics have resulted in large stocks outperforming small by 38% since we joined First Eagle.

Macroeconomic factors both positivethe continued strength of the US economyand negativeabove-target inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, potential recession, challenging geopolitics and massive sovereign debt levelswould seem likely to have a capitalization-agnostic impact. Despite this, the Russell 2000 has been range-bound for much of the past two years, and the surge in other parts of the US equity market comes as cold comfort for those of us earning our keep wresting returns from small cap stocks.

Patience Is a Virtue

So, why the huge performance gap between large and small stocks? While certain idiosyncratic developments may have played a rolethe mania around artificial intelligence helped drive returns of the aptly named Magnificent Seven,² for example, while regional bank turmoil in March 2023 had an outsized impact on small stocksour guess is that the root of the large/small divergence lies in policy decisions.

Perhaps the current environment is the legacy of crisis-era measuresin response both to the global financial and Covid-19 crisesthat broke all policy conventions in an effort to forestall pain. Super-accommodative monetary policies, including the magic of zero interest rates, resulted in a handful of companies whose market caps have soared to heights previously unimagined. If history is any guide, however, pronounced valuation disparities tend to revert to the mean over time. As shown in Exhibit 2, deep depressions in small cap valuations typically have been followed by pronounced and often lengthy rallies.

If the chasm in relative valuations is attributable to twenty-first-century policy experiments, shouldn't mean reversion be right around the corner with central bank normalization is well underway? Maybe, or maybe not; getting back to even can take time. I'm old enough to remember that the Nasdaq took 15 years to regain its 2000 high once the tech bubble burst, and the index proceeded to more than triple over the next nine years.³ Similarly, US home prices took about a decade to recapture the 2006 peak that was lost amid the global financial crisis.⁴ That said, we expect the scars from money printing and zero interest rate policies will eventually fade.

Valuationsespecially among smaller stocks and their indexesebb and flow. Unable to call a shift in tides, we focus on what we control: which stocks to buy and how much to pay for them.

Recall that small cap stocks have been the most rewarding segment of the equity market going back to 1927.⁵ While this most recent period of sideways performance has been frustrating, the underlying volatility that characterizes small caps has provided opportunity to probe beneath the surface for good companies at what we believe are compelling prices; historically, such temporal market inefficiencies have provided opportunity for skilled active managers of small cap portfolios to outperform indexes.⁶

We believe that skillful adherence to disciplined processes, focused on fundamental research and valuation, should ultimately give small cap investors the potential to be paid for taking the risks inherent to this special segment of the market. Increased merger and acquisition activity as interest rates stabilize, combined with more smaller companies coming public, could amplify rewards. Patience may ultimately be rewarded.

Read original with charts here.

1. Source: Bloomberg; data as of February 29, 2024.2. The term Magnificent Seven is widely used in the financial media and elsewhere to refer to the seven US technology related stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) that drove an outsized share of equity market gains in 2023.3. Source: FactSet; data as of February 29, 2024.4. Source: S&P and Dow Jones Index, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; data as of February 29, 2024.5. Source: Kenneth R. French data library; data as of February 29,2024.6. Source: Morningstar; data as of February 29, 2024.

The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the firm. These materials are provided for informational purposes only. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investment advice. Any statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of this information cannot be guaranteed. The views expressed herein may change at any time subsequent to the date of issue hereof. The information provided is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell or the solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any fund or security.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.