Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 9, after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 7.3%.
How are Estimates Placed?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $6.19, indicating an improvement of 13.2% from $5.47 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $1,071 million. The metric suggests an increase of 18.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote
Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors at Play
Vail Resorts’ second-quarter fiscal 2022 performance is likely to reflect strong performance by the company’s North American ski season and solid resort revenues. On Jan 18, 2023, the company provided a business update, reporting strength in destination visitation and solid lift ticket sales at Colorado, Utah and Tahoe resorts. The company recorded solid performance at Whistler Blackcomb owing to the easing of travel restrictions in Canada.
Season-to-date (through Jan 8, 2023) total skier visits increased 12.5% compared with the prior-year season-to-date period (Jan 9, 2022). Lift ticket revenues (including an allocated portion of season pass revenues for each applicable period) increased 5.3% compared with the prior year’s season-to-date period. Ski school revenues surged 35.6% year over year while dining revenues jumped 58% compared with the prior-year period’s levels. Retail/rental revenues for North American resort and ski area store locations increased 34.4% compared with the prior-year season-to-date period.
Increased focus on offerings such as Epic Pass, Epic Local Pass, Epic Day Pass and Epic Coverage products and strategic price management are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Extreme weather conditions and airline disruptions (during the peak holiday period) are likely to have impacted destination guest visitation at western U.S. resorts. This and staffing challenges might have affected the company’s ancillary lines of business in the fiscal second quarter.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. But that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary space that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Crocs, Inc. CROX has an Earnings ESP of +3.18% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Shares of Crocs have gained 86.1% in the past year. CROX’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in all of the trailing four quarters, the average being 21.8%.
Hyatt Hotels Corporation H has an Earnings ESP of +3.24% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Shares of Hyatt have gained 49.3% in the past year. H’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in all of the trailing four quarters, the average being 1,380.7%.
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. MCRI has an Earnings ESP of +4.12% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Shares of Monarch Casino have declined 2.3% in the past year. MCRI’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 3.7%.
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