Yahoo Finance Earnings Beat: Lennar Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$8.8b arriving 2.5% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$3.45, 6.3% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Lennar
Taking into account the latest results, Lennar's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$35.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$14.56, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$35.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.57 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$178, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Lennar analyst has a price target of US$238 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$144. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.5% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Lennar is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Lennar's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$178, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Lennar going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Lennar that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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