Yahoo Finance Don’t Buy a House in These 5 US Cities Until After the 2024 Trump vs. Biden Election
Presidents don’t directly control the real estate market any more than they control the stock market, but politics and election outcomes impact every facet of the American economy — including property values.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden have vastly divergent policies and philosophies on taxes, trade, spending and, perhaps most importantly, regulations, all of which could signal a shift in the fortunes of real estate markets in a handful of key American cities.
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If you’re considering buying in any of the following markets as a homeowner, an investor or both, consider waiting until after the election plays out, unless you absolutely can’t wait.
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Phoenix
According to the BBC, Arizona is one of a half-dozen states that will determine the outcome of the November election — and interestingly, the election could determine the future of the real estate market in the state’s capital.
“Phoenix has seen significant housing market fluctuations recently, partly due to economic uncertainty,” said Colten Claus, associate broker with 8z Real Estate. “Waiting until after the election may provide more stability and clearer economic policies that could impact property values. Potential buyers should monitor the market closely and consider the long-term economic outlook before making a purchase.”
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Miami
The stakes of November’s election are even higher for an international city like Miami.
“Miami’s real estate market is heavily influenced by international investment and tourism, both of which can be affected by political changes,” said Claus. “The outcome of the election could lead to shifts in immigration policies, trade agreements and economic strategies that impact the local market. It’s wise to wait for post-election clarity before buying in Miami.”
There’s also the property insurance crisis that continues to grip the state and make homeownership more challenging and expensive. With solvency questions swirling around the state-mandated Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, Florida’s insurance system could be seeking a federal bailout after just one or two more destructive summer storms — and whoever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. will have a lot to say about whether or not that happens.
Las Vegas
The COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns proved that a city whose economy is as singularly dependent on one industry as Las Vegas is more vulnerable to political turbulence than more economically diverse metros.
“Las Vegas relies heavily on the tourism and entertainment industries, which can be volatile and sensitive to economic policies and consumer confidence,” said Claus. “The election outcome could impact these sectors significantly, affecting the housing market.”
During a recent Nevada campaign stop, Biden touted his plan to expand Low-Income Housing Tax Credits, which developers can use to build affordable units, while pointing out that the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) criticized Trump for suggesting cuts to housing benefits that struggling Nevadans rely on.
It isn’t important which candidate’s policy would help or hurt property owners. What’s important is that a change in either direction could significantly impact the housing market in a city whose economy is as sensitive as Las Vegas’ — in Sin City, November matters.
“Buyers should consider waiting until after the election to better understand the economic landscape and its potential effects on property values,” said Claus.
Washington, DC
There are few places in America where federal elections matter more than in the city that hosts all three branches of power.
“The nation’s capital is often subject to significant political and economic fluctuations, especially around election times,” said Jolean Olson of Olson Home Buyers. “The uncertainty surrounding federal policies and potential changes in government leadership can impact the housing market. Waiting until after the election can provide clarity on the direction of federal spending, housing policies and economic stability, helping buyers make more informed decisions.”
But more immediately, people who can’t telecommute have to live where they work. An administrative turnover would bring thousands of President Trump’s new hires to D.C. looking for places to live during his second term — and that alone is enough to boost demand. In 2016, on the eve of Trump’s election, the Washington Post crunched the numbers and found that, while most new hires already lived in D.C. Metro, the influx of new arrivals represented about 5% of new home sales, stressing inventory levels in what’s already a high-demand city.
Detroit
Finally, there’s a city whose future depends on funding from state and federal revitalization initiatives.
“While Detroit has made strides in its recovery from economic downturns, it remains sensitive to political and economic changes,” said Olson.
For example, Motor City received $826 million in federal coronavirus funds, the fifth-highest amount for any city despite the fact that its population isn’t even in the top 25 — and the release of those funds required a presidential signature. According to the Chicago Fed, Detroit will spend most of it rebuilding neighborhoods, a blessing for homeowners — but that amount could have been much lower or higher under a different president.
“The outcome of the election could influence federal support and policies that affect the city’s ongoing revitalization efforts,” said Olson. “Holding off on purchasing property until after the election can allow buyers to assess the potential impact of new policies on Detroit’s housing market and overall economic health.”
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Don’t Buy a House in These 5 US Cities Until After the 2024 Trump vs. Biden Election
