Yahoo Finance CN (CNI) Up 5.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Canadian National (CNI). Shares have added about 5.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CN due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Earnings Beat at Canadian National in Q3
Quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share (C$2.13) outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51 and improved 34.7% year over year. Quarterly revenues of $3,459.8 million (C$4,513 million) outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,214.2 million and increased 21.3% year over year. The uptick was driven by higher fuel surcharge revenues backed by higher fuel prices, freight rate increases, higher Canadian export volumes of coal via west coast ports, higher volumes of U.S. grain and the positive translation impact of a weaker Canadian dollar.
Freight revenues (C$4,366 million), which contributed 96.7% to the top line, increased 27% year over year. Freight revenues at the Petroleum and Chemicals; Metals and minerals; Forest products; Coal; Grain and fertilizers; Intermodal; and Automotive segments increased 19%, 31%, 29%, 53%, 22%, 26% and 52%, respectively.
Carloads revenue ton-miles (RTMs) grew 5%. Segment-wise, carloads in Petroleum and chemicals; Forest products; Coal; Grain and fertilizers and Automotive grew 7%, 5%, 19%, 3% and 30%, respectively. The same at Metals and minerals; and Intermodal decreased by 1% each, respectively. Freight revenues per carload climbed 24% year over year in the reported quarter, while freight revenues per RTM improved 22%.
Operating expenses (on a reported basis) ascended 15% to C$2,581 million. Adjusted operating income increased 31.3% year over year to C$1,932 million. The adjusted operating ratio (defined as operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) deteriorated to 57.2% in the third quarter of 2022 from 59% in the third quarter of 2021.
Liquidity
Canadian National generated a free cash flow of C$1,356 million during the third quarter compared with the year-ago quarter’s C$754 million.
2022 Outlook
Canadian National raised its full-year 2022 guidance. The company now expects adjusted earnings to register roughly 25% growth (prior view: 15-20% growth) in 2022. The company now anticipates a free cash flow of nearly C$4.2 billion (prior view: C$3.7 billion-C$4.0 billion) in the current year.
The operating ratio is still estimated to be below 60% for 2022.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
Currently, CN has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CN has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
CN belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Rail industry. Another stock from the same industry, Union Pacific (UNP), has gained 8.6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2022.
Union Pacific reported revenues of $6.57 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +18%. EPS of $3.19 for the same period compares with $2.57 a year ago.
Union Pacific is expected to post earnings of $2.85 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
Union Pacific has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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