China-UAE hi-tech cooperation can expect close US scrutiny, pressure: experts

Abu Dhabi's ambition to catch the artificial intelligence wave and upgrade its hi-tech industries will ensure its cooperation with Beijing will continue, despite Washington's growing pressure, analysts say.

But the deeper connections - underlined last week with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan's state visit to Beijing - were "not irreversible" and could face more scrutiny from the US, they warned.

The observers said Abu Dhabi - a Washington ally - should maximise its neutral position and characterise itself as "a bridge" between the US and China amid the tensions between the two powers.

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In their meeting on Thursday, Sheikh Mohamed and Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed closer cooperation, including in cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, a sensitive area for Washington.

According to the official Chinese foreign ministry readout, Xi mentioned "information technology, artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and new energy" as fields for China-UAE cooperation.

"China supports the UAE's independent development path, supports the country in safeguarding its national sovereignty, security and development interests, and is willing to consolidate political mutual trust and strengthen cooperation," Xi said.

The Emirates News Agency reported that Sheik Mohamed vowed to double trade volumes with China, noting that his nation offered "numerous opportunities" for Chinese companies to "explore new markets, and expand their economic and trade relations with other parts of the world".

The two leaders signed several agreements ranging from investment and technology to cultural engagement, including Belt and Road Initiative funding, peaceful use of nuclear energy, Chinese-language education, and tourism exchanges.

Cooperation between the two countries is at a historic high. Booming trade and investment saw trading volumes double in 2022 compared to 2018, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. Also in 2022, China's direct investment in the UAE reached nearly US$12 billion.

At the same time, China's science and technology ties with the UAE continue to grow, including in sensitive areas such as aerospace, artificial intelligence and 5G communications.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) holds a welcome ceremony for his UAE counterpart Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Beijing's Great Hall of the People before their talks on Thursday. Photo: Xinhua alt=Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) holds a welcome ceremony for his UAE counterpart Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Beijing's Great Hall of the People before their talks on Thursday. Photo: Xinhua>

Middle East affairs specialist Wen Shaobiao, from Shanghai International Studies University, said the UAE saw China as having a key role in the revolution of AI and other high-end technologies.

While the UAE is an economic leader in the Middle East, it also faces many bottlenecks, including a shortage of talent in AI and the skills needed to drive a technological upgrade, according to Wen.

"The country has sufficient capital but lacks talent and technology to transform hi-tech, so there is a gap that China can fill very well," he said, adding that China's technology and talent costs were lower than those in the West.

However, these growing areas of cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Beijing overlap with the fields in which the US and China have the most intense competition, to Washington's increasing concern.

Bloomberg reported in May that Washington warned Emirati AI company G42 to reduce its connections with China. And last year, the US grounded UAE plans to take part in China's 2026 Chang'e-7 moon mission, citing US technology transfer restrictions.

US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said last year that Washington had concerns about China gaining access to US science and technology through the Gulf entities.

Speaking to Al-Monitor, a US-based, Arab-focused media outlet, Leaf said Washington would not ask its "friends or frenemies" to "choose between us and [China], but has "certain delineations of no-go areas in terms of our own high-end advanced technology".

James Dorsey, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, said China-UAE relations had gone to the "furthest point" in regards to Washington's bottom line, but the unprecedented closeness was "not irreversible".

"I'm sure that will be [a bottom line for the US]. But it will depend on the degree to which the US sees UAE-China relations as threatening ... to national security," Dorsey said.

"If the UAE gets involved in certain systems [with China], the United States may not be willing to ... provide advanced technology to [the UAE]. That's all speculative at this moment."

Abu Dhabi's relationship on the military front, especially in the air services, is also testing Washington's line.

Last month, the commander of the UAE's Joint Operations, Major General Saleh Mohammed bin Mejren Al Ameri, met PLA Air Force commander Chang Dingqiu to promote a closer cooperation.

The meeting came after the US suspended a signed US$19 billion deal to sell 50 F-35s and 18 MQ-4B drones to the UAE, along with Washington's frequently expressed concerns about China and the UAE's military exchanges.

Days after the meeting, leaked US intelligence documents showed that China had resumed construction work on an alleged military base at Port Khalifa, not far from Abu Dhabi, further angering Washington.

Work froze at the site in late 2021, after US complaints. Washington claims the port facility is part of an alleged PLA initiative labelled "Project 141" to create a network of facilities at ports across the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa by 2030.

According to Wen, Abu Dhabi has long pursued diversification of its economy and it is not realistic for Washington to coercively restrict cooperation between China and the UAE.

But as Beijing-Washington rivalries intensified, Abu Dhabi's room to balance the two countries was "bound to be squeezed", he said, adding that the UAE should highlight its potential as a mediator to gain diplomatic capital.

"The UAE can play the role of a bridge between China and the United States, delivering messages and mediating between the two countries, as well as having more action on the Middle East," Wen said.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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