China skipping Ukraine summit 'not unreasonable' but could harm its image

When leaders and senior officials from close to 90 countries descend on Switzerland this weekend to work out a solution for the war in Ukraine, two major players will be strikingly absent: Russia and China.

Russia has not been invited and China has made clear it will not join the conference on Saturday because it falls short of Beijing's expectations, which included the participation of both Moscow and Kyiv.

According to diplomatic observers, China's decision could hurt its already-battered image on the world stage and further cement narratives about its support for Russia's actions.

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But the reasoning behind Beijing's move was not entirely unfounded, they said, adding that Beijing may be poised to soon hold its own summit bringing together the two warring nations.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning confirmed last week that China would not attend the summit, saying: "China has repeatedly stressed that the international peace conference needs to meet three important elements, namely recognition from both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans.

"As far as China is concerned, the meeting does not yet seem to meet these three elements and that is exactly why China would not be able to take part in the meeting."

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China's decision not to attend the summit in Switzerland was "fair and just". Photo: Kyodo alt=Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China's decision not to attend the summit in Switzerland was "fair and just". Photo: Kyodo>

Mao backed China's decision as "fair and just", saying the move was not targeted at any party or at this particular summit.

"Whether one supports peace should not be judged by a particular country or on the basis of a particular meeting. China sincerely hopes that a peace conference will not turn into a platform used to create bloc confrontation. Not attending does not mean not supporting peace."

Russia, which said it would not have attended the conference even if it had been invited, expressed gratitude to China for snubbing the summit and praised Beijing for its balanced approach.

But other countries may not feel the same way. "It is not a good look for China," said David Arase, resident professor of international politics with the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre.

China's decision came not long after Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky accused the Asian giant of working with Russia to undermine the Kyiv-backed summit.

Moscow was doing "everything to disrupt the peace summit [by using] Chinese influence on the region", he said.

According to Arase, Europe may take China's non-attendance as "more evidence of China's ongoing diplomatic and economic support for an armed Russian assault against European peace and security".

Since the war broke out in February 2022, China has not condemned Russia's actions and instead pledged to deepen ties with Moscow.

Arase said the Chinese move fits the narrative of a lengthy joint declaration issued during Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing last month, where he and China's leader Xi Jinping voiced their opposition to hegemonism and vowed to support each other's struggles.

While China's refrain has been that it is a neutral party willing to facilitate peace talks, its position invites Western scepticism because of Xi and Putin's intimate partnership as well as Beijing's growing diplomatic and economic support for Russian war efforts, he added.

Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre think tank, said Beijing's snub would "reflect badly" on China, especially in the West, even though China's position was "not unreasonable".

"A peace conference should be about a political settlement, which necessitates the participation of Russia. Without Russia, the peace conference is about posturing, positioning and pressuring, which could be one type of peace conference, but is unlikely to actually lead to peace."

Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, stressed that while China was not directly involved in the Ukraine war, it has suffered huge losses - such as in investments - and has a desire for the war to end.

But in Russia's absence, the summit is likely to focus on condemnation of Moscow or offers of aid to Kyiv, things that will not solve the "fundamental problem", he said.

"That is the crux of the problem. In that case, whether or not to attend this international conference will not solve the fundamental problem."

According to Wang, Ukraine is expected to try to win support for its own 10-point peace plan, which is "not realistic" from the Russian point of view.

Ahead of the summit, Kyiv said on Tuesday that it wanted Russia to attend a second summit, to receive an internationally agreed road map towards ending the conflict.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last month proposed that China could be the one to arrange a peace conference in which both Russia and Ukraine would participate.

But Arase said there was "little chance that Ukraine would accept China as a neutral, honest broker of peace", while Sun said Beijing would have to see "concrete prospects for a result" if it was to host such a conference.

Wang was more optimistic in his assessment, citing the major political events unfolding this year, including elections in the US, Britain and France as well as the recent European Parliamentary ballot.

"When these power institutes stabilise, the truth about whether or not Russia can be defeated will be clearer," he said, noting that there have been concerns in some Western quarters over continued aid for Ukraine.

"When they realise that Ukraine can't fight, I think China can hold such a peace summit and we can truly reach a ceasefire agreement."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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