China report lists top 5 global risks, with US responsible for most of them

Hi-tech constraints, geopolitical moves and supply chain actions by the US, as well as its presidential election, are likely to pose "prominent risks" to the world this year, a leading think tank affiliated with China's top intelligence agency has warned.

In a report released on Tuesday, the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) said global development and security would continue to face various risks and challenges, "with uncertainties and instabilities becoming intertwined".

According to the influential research institution, which comes under the Ministry of State Security, two of its identified top five risks to world peace and stability are directly attributed to the US, which is also a target for blame in the remainder.

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The report landed with Washington and Beijing still locking horns over a wide spectrum of differences, from the Taiwan Strait through the South China Sea to human rights issues, along with trade, sanctions and semiconductors.

Nevertheless, since the November summit between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the two powers have been bidding to stabilise relations from their most confrontational point in their 45 years of official ties.

According to the CICIR, one of the main risks for 2024 is "an intelligence gap" that has been created by a few countries, particularly the US, which "views intelligence superiority as a key variable in consolidating its hegemony".

The report pointed to US export controls and sanctions against China's chip design companies and its access to artificial intelligence chips.

"If countries prioritise their individual security needs over common security and develop incompatible and incomprehensible military intelligence systems, the risk of rapid escalation of conflicts and crises among major powers ... may intensify."

The authors pointed out that US troops could be increasingly capable of destroying all of their opponents' forces simultaneously in the age of military intelligence.

"The higher the likelihood of achieving this, the more likely both sides are to consider firing the first shot in conflicts during times of crisis," they said.

Washington and Beijing agreed during the Xi-Biden summit in San Francisco two months ago to improve AI safety through China-US government talks.

The report identifies 2024 as a "crucial" year for the global governance of artificial intelligence, calling for more dialogue, consensus and mechanisms to regulate military applications of the technology.

US controls on chip-making lithography machines emerged as a focal point in a phone call between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and his American counterpart Gina Raimondo on Thursday.

In a commentary on Wednesday, the official People's Daily warned that the US would end up "trapping itself" in its efforts to isolate the Chinese market from the global semiconductor ecosystem.

"The US restrictions on China's scientific and technological innovation will only strengthen China's determination to achieve a high level of scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement," the article said.

The CICIR also sounded the alarm about the potential impact on the rest of the world of "ongoing political polarisation" in the US, where the "unprecedented" controversies surrounding the 2024 presidential election could exacerbate social tensions.

Sharp bipartisan disparities and political battles over budgets, appropriations and debt ceilings in the US heightened "the likelihood of an economic and financial crisis caused by political strife in 2024", the report warned.

The authors also underscored the greater risks of the "politicisation" of US foreign policy in response to its domestic electoral pressures, adding that this could affect global stability.

A similar warning was contained in a 94-page report issued last Friday by the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, which suggested that the US presidential race - as well as Saturday's election in Taiwan - could affect Beijing-Washington relations this year.

"The direction of China-US relations in 2024 remains highly uncertain," it said.

In its assessment of the third major risk looming over the next 12 months, the CICIR report predicts higher odds of "systemic" problems facing the world economy, given the weak recovery.

One reason for the negative outlook is the "weaponisation" of economic issues by the US, Europe and other Western countries, which have prioritised national security when shoring up their supply chains, according to the report.

The authors cited Washington's push for "nearshoring" and "friendshoring" - a move to bring trade closer to home as well as within its sphere of traditional allies - along with the US-EU Trade and Technology Council and the Indo-Pacific Framework for Prosperity as notable examples.

The next prominent risk on the report's list is faced by global governance, which could become fragmented in 2024, because of the larger challenges caused by a wide range of actions, according to the authors.

These included Washington's policy of "extended nuclear deterrence" in the Asia-Pacific region, the Aukus security alliance between the US, Britain and Australia, and the various "small blocs" established by Washington and its allies, the report said.

The authors rounded out their assessment of the year ahead with an analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the Gaza conflict, which they predict will drag on in 2024.

The report forecasted "a huge test of capacity and determination" for Moscow, Kyiv and the US-led Western countries, with a "Ukraine fatigue" likely to emerge, with both sides finding it "difficult to maintain the existing intensity of the conflict for a long time".

The report also observed that Kyiv was likely to increase its attacks within Russian territory in a bid to disrupt its larger neighbour's presidential election in March.

"The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Gaza conflict may not be the last crises, but they are likely to be triggers for many long-frozen regional conflicts and geopolitical contradictions. 'Black swan' and 'grey rhino' events may emerge frequently," it said.

The authors expect China to "focus on its affairs" this year, with an emphasis on developing trade and security ties with neighbouring countries and the surrounding region.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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