For China-Israel ties, the 'honeymoon is certainly over', policy expert says

While ties between Israel and China have blossomed over the past two decades, they will face new challenges after the war in Gaza, including deteriorating public perceptions, a deepening US-China rivalry and heightened national security concerns, according to an Israeli think tank expert.

"The purpose for Israel remains to have friendly and fruitful relations with China," said Assaf Orion, director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Israel-China Policy Centre at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

"At the same time, these relations are managed under considerations of national security, like China does itself," he said, adding that Israel's national security included "taking into account the US' concerns".

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"Hopefully we can navigate the multilayer aspects here of how China has changed, how Israel has changed, how the Middle East is changing, how the world system is changing - and I think that's the riddle to be solved," said Orion, who formerly served as head of strategic planning with the general staff of the Israel Defence Forces.

He said economic cooperation would remain a priority between the two countries, but the "honeymoon is certainly over".

However, he added, "the end of a honeymoon doesn't mean divorce".

"We can still do business, but the enthusiasm is gone, and Israel is very sensitive these days. We are reading reports of somewhat rising antisemitism on Chinese social media."

"It resonates very badly in Israel, specifically in wartime, even though our interlocutors here assure us that this has no basis in the wider society," Orion said.

"So I think it will take some work - to improve, to fix, to reestablish and to renew.

"Israel and China will not go into the same river twice. It's not the last decade, it's this decade, and we need to work on our relations in the new conditions."

Ties between China and Israel have been frayed since the Gaza war began in October, as Beijing did not condemn Hamas and later denounced Israel for causing a humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Israel was also irked by the Chinese reaction to Iran's missile and drone strikes against it in April. Beijing voiced "deep concern" over the escalation of the conflict but stopped short of condemning Tehran.

According to a survey conducted by INSS in April, the Israeli public's attitude towards China has deteriorated significantly, with 54 per cent of Israelis considering China to be unfriendly or hostile towards their country.

Only 15 per cent perceived China as a friendly country or an ally of Israel, while the remaining 31 per cent answered "don't know".

That was a sharp contrast from previous years. A 2019 Pew Research Centre poll showed that 66 per cent of Israelis held a positive view of China.

Beijing's clear pro-Palestine position, its alignment with Iran and an intensifying rivalry between China and the US, Israel's most important ally, are thought to be behind the deteriorating views.

Orion said the two sides needed to address fresh challenges.

"Our partnership is still around the economy, and the core is innovation and technology. But China has developed a lot since the last decade, and it's a different scope of need," he said, adding that a lot of tech developments were considered sensitive, with some parts "clearly off limits".

"As national security becomes much more dominant in both China and Israel, I think we need to navigate a more complicated environment."

Israel was the first country in the Middle East to recognise Beijing after the People's Republic was founded, and it sold advanced weapons to China even before the two sides established formal diplomatic ties in 1992.

Ties also survived two crises when Israel cancelled sales of weapons and military equipment to China in 2000 and 2006, and later blossomed with a close economic relationship.

Two-way trade has increased from over US$50 million in 1992 to a peak of US$163 billion in 2022, with China seeking Israel's expertise in technology and Israel wanting to tap the Chinese market.

When China and Israel established a partnership to promote cooperation in technology and innovation in 2017, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called their ties a "marriage made in heaven".

But uncertainties have emerged in recent years.

In 2020, Israel set up an official committee to review foreign investment after the US warned against potential security risks from Chinese investment and infrastructure.

In another worrying sign, trade between China and Israel marked a sharp decline of 7.4 per cent in 2023 compared with the previous year, partly due to domestic political turbulence and the war in Gaza.

The China-Israel Joint Committee on Innovation Cooperation, a government-to-government mechanism involving 15 ministries and agencies - has not convened since their virtual meeting in 2022, which followed a four-year disruption after 2018.

Few Chinese officials have visited Israel since the war began, and the number of Chinese travelling to the country fell from a high of 156,000 annually in 2019 to around 300 per month now.

Orion also questioned whether Israelis would be convinced of Beijing's role as a peace mediator in the region.

A relative latecomer to Middle Eastern affairs, Beijing has taken a balanced, non-interference approach to its ties with rival sides in regional disputes.

But Beijing has taken a harder line on Israel than on its neighbours. In a 21-point statement issued after meetings in Beijing on Friday, senior diplomats from China and 22 members of the League of Arab States slammed Israel's "continued aggression" against Palestine and urged more countries to formally recognise Palestinian statehood.

Orion said Israel's security concerns should be taken into consideration.

"I would say a balanced view by China would be, yes we want to see stability and security with the rights of the Palestinians and security of the Israelis."

And without clear positions on crucial and sensitive issues, Beijing cannot serve as a real mediator, he added.

"This is not something that you just step in, out of the blue, without deep knowledge of the problem ... without putting skin in the game, without having a sway on the players.

"And friendship alone or being able to open channels alone are not enough. There's a real heavy lifting to be done here," Orion said.

"I don't think China has the knowledge to go into the core issues: Jerusalem, borders, refugees," he said. "Sitting in a plenary and talking about peace is nice, but when you really need to carry the water, I don't think China is there."

But China does have a role to play, he added.

"Still, as there [is] evident need for reconstruction and infrastructure as part of peace efforts, China clearly has relevant capabilities, and could apply them, advancing stabilisation through development," he said.

"However, this will be only possible through good cooperation and coordination with the US, which currently seem out of reach."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.