China could benefit from rise of extreme left and right parties in Europe elections: report

Rising support in Europe for political extremes could water down the EU's increasingly hardline approach towards China, with parties from the far-left and far-right predicted to make sizeable gains in next month's European Parliament elections.

A Czech study claims that factions in both groupings have consistently voted against legislation and resolutions targeting China, and that Beijing is increasingly targeting relations with erstwhile fringe parties in a bid to increase its influence in European politics.

The report, from the Association for International Affairs in Prague, was released ahead of the five-yearly elections, at a time when Beijing's ties to its extreme figures is already under the spotlight.

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"The anticipated gains for both far-right and far-left wings in the European Parliament are likely to favour more China-friendly votes, potentially softening rhetoric and reducing support for more assertive stances against China," it said.

The breakdown of the returned political groups will also influence the components of the next European Commission, although centre-right Ursula von der Leyen - architect of Brussels' tougher approach to China - is widely tipped to secure another term as president.

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) forecasts that the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) Group will increase its number of seats from 58 to 98, while the Left grouping is predicted to leap from 38 to 44.

While neither group will be the parliament's largest, their rise comes as some of the more hawkish factions are predicted to see their influence diminished when hundreds of millions of European cast their vote on the make-up of the next parliament.

According to the ECFR, seats held by the Greens - which have been among the parliament's toughest on China - could fall from 71 to 61. Centrist Renew, which has consistently backed tougher measures against Beijing, is forecast to lose 15 seats to 86.

Authors of the Czech study Kara Němečkova and Ivana Karaskova said that with 361 votes needed for a parliamentary majority, "the size of each political group determines its influence".

"The rise of both far-right and far-left parties could alter the legislative landscape, including the EU's stance on China. It might lead to a tougher political tone or changes in existing and new initiatives, resulting in even more polarised debates within the European Parliament," they wrote.

Leading candidate for Germany's far-right AfD party Maximilian Krah, whose aide in the European Parliament was arrested and charged in April with spying for China. Photo: AFP alt=Leading candidate for Germany's far-right AfD party Maximilian Krah, whose aide in the European Parliament was arrested and charged in April with spying for China. Photo: AFP>

While the report is not linked with EU institutions, Karaskova is a former adviser on Chinese government disinformation strategies to the European commissioner for values and transparency, Vera Jourova.

The authors found that the European Parliament is "susceptible to security risks", pointing to high profile scandals, such as allegations that members accepted bribes from the Qatari government in exchange for political backing.

The study also noted a recent case of espionage involving the German far-right's lead candidate in next month's elections. An assistant for Maximilian Krah - the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's top lawmaker in Brussels - was arrested and charged in April with spying for China.

Weeks later, Krah was banned from making public appearances for the party and resigned from its leadership after telling an Italian newspaper that he did not think all members of the Schutzstaffel (SS, a Nazi paramilitary group) were criminals.

"Before I declare someone a criminal, I want to know what he did. Among the 900,000 SS men there were also many farmers. There was certainly a high percentage of criminals, but not all of them were. I will never say that anyone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal," he told La Repubblica.

Krah and other far-right lawmakers have frequently opposed the parliament's moves to censure China. The French far-right party of Marine Le Pen, which is predicted to finish top of the country's polls, voted against China-facing resolutions almost twice as many times as it backed them between 2019 and 2024, the research shows.

Marine Le Pen, whose far-right party is predicted to finish at the top of France's polls in the European elections in June. Photo: AFP alt=Marine Le Pen, whose far-right party is predicted to finish at the top of France's polls in the European elections in June. Photo: AFP>

On the left, lawmakers from the German party Die Linke voted against resolutions involving China 48 times, giving their support on just nine occasions, according to the study.

The research also found that Left Group members from Ireland, Portugal and Spain introduced amendments to parliamentary resolutions that borrowed from official Chinese government language on issues like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang.

"These amendments have called for promoting dialogue and cooperation with China, criticised the EU for adopting a confrontational policy that allegedly seeks to interfere with and destabilise China, and advocated for respecting the one-China principle."

The report fingers two Irish lawmakers in particular as pushing most actively against anti-China policies and resolutions. Clare Daly and Mick Wallace from the Left Group's Independents4Change "voted against resolutions and reports critical of China in 86 per cent of cases".

Both Daly and Wallace have become hugely popular among Chinese state media outlets, with the latter becoming so familiar to views that he was given a nickname that translates as "Golden Lion King", according to an Irish Times report last year citing news database LexisNexis.

The newspaper's investigation also found that Daly had featured in Beijing-backed press "more than Ireland's top political leaders or even Irish celebrities and sports stars like Conor McGregor and Rory McIlroy".

Daly declined to be interviewed, while Wallace has yet to respond to an interview request.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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