Australians remain wary of China as spectre of Asia-Pacific conflict looms: survey

Australians' trust in China has risen slightly as the two countries have re-engaged diplomatically, but potential conflict in the South China Sea looms as a concern, according to a new poll by an independent Sydney think tank.

Out of the 2,028 Australian adults polled by the Lowy Institute, 17 per cent trusted China "somewhat" or "a great deal" to act responsibly in the world. This is an increase from a record low of 12 per cent in 2022, but remains a long way from pre-pandemic levels, when one in two Australians trusted China.

For the fourth year in a row, Japan topped the list of global powers Australians trusted most, followed by France, Britain and the United States. Australians' trust in China ranked just above Russia.

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Twelve per cent of Australians said they were confident in Chinese President Xi Jinping to "do the right thing regarding world affairs", ranking him ahead of the Russian and North Korean leaders. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the most trusted leader of a major power, earning the confidence of 65 per cent of respondents, followed by Japan's Fumio Kishida and France's Emmanuel Macron.

The think tank collected responses over two weeks in March and published the annual report on Sunday.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang is scheduled to visit Australia in late June. His trip, which follows a five-day visit by Foreign Minister Wang Yi in March, is likely to consolidate improving economic relations between Beijing and Canberra, with expectations for an unofficial three-year ban on Australian live lobsters to be lifted.

Half of the respondents said Australia should place more importance on a stable relationship with China, and close to half described the state of the bilateral relationship as "quite bad", slightly outnumbering those who said it was "quite good".

Slightly more than half of Australians view China as more of a security threat than an economic partner. In 2020, 55 per cent of Australians saw China more as an economic partner.

Since the survey was conducted in March, Beijing has lifted punitive import tariffs targeting Australia, resulting in China importing more than US$10 million of Australian wine in April.

Nearly three-quarters of Australians said it was likely that China would become a military threat to Australia in the next two decades. Potential conflicts over Taiwan and the South China Sea loomed larger as threats than active, but more distant, conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East.

China and Russia's foreign policies were also seen as "possible threats" to Australia's vital interests in the next decade, the poll showed.

Acquiring nuclear-powered submarines - a move within the Aukus security partnership between Australia, Britain and the US - continued to receive strong support from Australians, though falling five percentage points to 65 per cent over two years. One-third of Australians said they were "somewhat against" or "strongly against" it.

Australia in April denied that Tokyo might be formally invited to join the Aukus security partnership following Washington's suggestion that Japan and New Zealand could get involved. According to the poll, if given a choice to establish closer security relations with one country apart from the US or Britain, 45 per cent of Australians would choose Japan.

While Washington has sought to increase its clout through Aukus and its Indo-Pacific strategy, only a quarter of Australians said the US was the most influential power in the Pacific Islands, falling behind both China and Australia.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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