Analyst Downgrades Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — Says AI Expectations are ‘Too High’

We recently published a list of the Forget Magnificent 7: Analysts are Talking About ‘Big 10’ AI Stocks in 2024. Since Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) ranks 6th on the list, it deserves a deeper look.

When the AI revolution started with the launch of ChatGPT, investors started pouring money into a handful of companies that are leading AI technology development, thanks to their industry position and unending free cash flows. Market analysts soon started pointing to the concentration of gains phenomena in the market, where just a few stocks accounted for most of the broader market gains. This tech concentration remains strong as of today, as all important AI and Cloud technologies that we see in the news are developed, acquired or marketed by mega-cap tech companies we’re all familiar with. Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett recently said in a report that the S&P 500 has gained about 12% so far in the year, but if we remove 10 technology companies from the equation, these gains shrink to just 3.6%. Hartnett calls these companies the “AI Big Ten” group.

What about the Magnificent Seven group of stocks that kept making headlines in 2023 and early 2024? Hartnett calculated that the broader market gained just 4.9% so far this year if these seven stocks are taken out of the equation. There is a third group of stocks that most investors are unaware of: Hedge Fund Top 30. These 30 stocks include the Magnificent Seven as well as 23 other promising stocks. These 30 stocks returned 53.2% in 2023, 20.2% during the first 5 months of 2024 vs. 11% for the S&P’s large cap index. You can check out the latest list here: 31 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds.

In this article we will take a look at the Big 10 AI stocks Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett highlighted in his report. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors, as of the end of the March quarter. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

A close up of a complex looking PCB board with several intergrated semiconductor parts.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)

Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 124

AMD is one of the top AI semiconductor stocks. BofA added the stock in its Big 10 AI list as the stock has gained about 16% so far this year.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) shares recently slipped after Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore downgraded the stock to Equalweight from Overweight, saying the Street’s expectations from Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMD) AI business are “too high.” The analyst went on the say that Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is expensive when compared to peers like NVDA and AVGO. However, the analyst retained his $176 price target on the stock.

Average analyst estimate for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is $187.2, which presents an upside potential of 17%. Wall Street analysts expect Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) to grow 32.50% this year and 59% next year. For the next five years the growth will then moderate to 32% on a per-annum basis, which is still high. Based on Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMD) 2025 EPS forecast, the stock is trading at around 28.6X forward P/E ratio, which isn’t high given Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMD) growth trajectory and catalysts.

Meridian Contrarian Fund stated the following regarding Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:

“Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is a global semiconductor chip maker specializing in central processing units (CPUs), which are considered the core component of most computing devices, and graphics processing units (GPUs), which accelerate operations running on CPUs. We invested in 2018 when it was a mid-cap value stock plagued by many years of underperformance due to lagging technology and lost market hi share versus competitors Intel and Nvidia. Our research identified that changes and investments made by current management under CEO Lisa Su had, over several years, finally resulted in compelling technology that positioned AMD as a stronger competitor to Nvidia and that its latest products were superior to Intel’s. We invested on the the belief that AMD’s valuation at that that time did not reflect the potential for its technology leadership to generate significant market share gains and improved profits. This thesis has been playing out for several years. During the quarter, AMD unveiled more details about its upcoming GPU products for the AI market. The stock reacted positively to expectations that AMD’s GPU servers will be a viable alternative to Nvidia. Although we pared back our exposure to AMD into strength as part of our risk-management practice, we maintained a position in the stock. We believe AMD will continue to gain share in large and growing markets and is reasonably valued relative to the potential for significantly higher earnings.”

Overall, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) ranks 6th on Insider Monkey’s list titled Forget Magnificent 7: Analysts are Talking About ‘Big 10’ AI Stocks in 2024. While we acknowledge the potential of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: Analyst Sees a New $25 Billion “Opportunity” for NVIDIA and Jim Cramer is Recommending These 10 Stocks in June.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.