Amid US-China rivalry, Washington takes aim at allies who avoid choosing sides, observers say

From Africa to the Asia-Pacific, some nations have found themselves facing a dilemma of having to choose sides amid an intensifying US-China rivalry, a point US Secretary of State Antony Blinken drove home during a talk at the Munich Security Conference last week.

Asked whether the United States was being challenged for alliances as US-China tensions led to greater fragmentation, Blinken said "if you're not at the table in the international system, you're going to be on the menu", adding that Washington had "re-engaged multilaterally".

Experts said the remarks were meant as a call for solidarity to US allies, especially European countries, and did not target Beijing directly. However, the comments drew strong backlash from Chinese state media for amounting to a "zero-sum game mentality".

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Lu Xiang, a senior researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Blinken's remarks were aimed at encouraging the alliance's solidarity amid an unprecedented US-China global rivalry.

"Blinken's emphasis was on the solidarity of his allies, meaning that if [they] allied with the United States, they would not become someone else's 'meal'," he said.

"At the same time, he is appeasing his allies, most of whom fear that if tensions continue between the US and China, they will be involved in an irreversible scenario."

In Munich, Blinken said the Biden administration had "made a made a reinvestment "in our alliances, in our partnerships, and in the multilateral system", because "it's in our interest to do it".

The US was not forcing other countries to choose but rather "offers a good choice", he added.

"And if we can do that - and I believe we can, and we have and will continue - then I think the choice becomes fairly self-evident," Blinken said.

Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of politics and international relations at Shanghai's East China Normal University, said Blinken's remarks were a warning for US allies, especially some European countries, as they sought warmer relations with Beijing.

"The target of the expressions are definitely European countries who've tried to hedge to some extent in their relations with China ... and other countries, realising that following the American strategy of so-called de-risking or decoupling will only leave them reduced," he said.

The message was also aimed at "anyone else who thinks they can avoid choosing a side or who's considering choosing Beijing", Mahoney added.

"Given the moderate tone of Blinken, it is hardly the case that he will target China in such a negative way," said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

Wu noted that Blinken's message was also delivered during an uncertain presidential election this year.

"To a large extent, Blinken's quote is also campaigning for the election, meant to warn domestic audiences against a return to Trump-era isolationism [in foreign policy]," he said.

Major European economies have stepped up engagement with China in recent months. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was the first leader from the Group of Seven industrialised nations to visit Beijing since the beginning of Covid-19 pandemic, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2022. He is reportedly set to visit Beijing again in April.

French President Emmanuel Macron received a warm welcome last April in China, as he stressed that Europe must reduce its dependency on America and avoid being dragged into a confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who visited France after attending the Munich conference, said: "China appreciates France's adherence to independence and autonomy, and hopes that France will continue to play a constructive role in the sound and steady development of China-Europe relations, enhance mutual trust, promote convergence of interests, and jointly act as a force of stability in today's world."

Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Europe in June last year and again last month, where he warned Europe of "de-risking" from China.

Meanwhile, China's state-owned media lashed out at Blinken's remarks in spite of the absence of any official response.

State news agency Xinhua published an opinion piece on Thursday criticising the comments, saying they carried a "comically menacing undertone".

"One might jokingly inquire, 'Who talks like that? Hannibal Lecter?'" the article said, referring to a fictional serial killer.

It added that Blinken's "undiplomatic words represent the factors these allies fear could bring about 'lose-lose dynamics'".

Global Times, a Chinese nationalist tabloid, said the remarks represented "a stark zero-sum game mentality".

"In plain language, if you have the strength, you devour others at the table; if you lack strength, you become the prey on the menu. It adheres completely to a jungle law where power and status, not ethical or legal norms, dictate actions," the editorial said.

Blinken used the same expression in January 2022 to describe competition with China when he was asked if the Biden administration would pass the Chips and Science Act to reduce US tech reliance on China.

"Across the board, this engagement is important because, again, if we're not doing it, someone else may be ... you know the old expression: If you're not at the table, you'll probably be on the menu. We are and will remain at the table," he replied.

Months later, Biden proposed the establishment of the Chip 4 alliance between the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to counter China's semiconductor industry.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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