Yahoo Finance 5 Predictions About Salaries in America in 2025 If Trump Wins the Election
This November, the people of the United States have a choice between putting two men back in the Oval Office, both of whom have held the position before: current President Joe Biden, or Donald Trump, who he defeated in 2020.
Among all the policy proposals, economic data, prevailing dynamics, and socio-economic conditions facing America, many at the polls might be wondering what a second term for Trump would mean for salaries. Would it be a shift from Bidenomics that the current administration is pushing, or a rehashing of his first term in office?
Find Out: Here’s How Much the Definition of Middle Class Has Changed in Every State
Try This: Owe Money to the IRS? Most People Don’t Realize They Should Do This One Thing
According to Vox, the economy under Trump is very similar to that of the current one under Biden, and while Trump made moves during his four years in office, “it takes time for those sorts of changes to work their way through the economy.”
“Predicting salary trends based on election outcomes involves analyzing historical patterns, policy impacts, and economic conditions,” said Dennis Shirshikov, a professor of finance, economics, and accounting at the City University of New York.
If Trump were to regain the presidency in 2025, several factors could influence salaries across various sectors and classes, according to Shirshikov. GOBankingRates took his and several other economic experts’ predictions about how salaries may change (or not) if Trump wins the election.
Wealthy people know the best money secrets. Learn how to copy them.
Tax Policies and Business Growth
“Trump’s previous administration implemented significant corporate tax cuts, which theoretically aimed to boost business investment and economic growth,” said Shirshikov.
While it might not reach across every sector of the American economy, there is a chance that workers with specific skills could see a bump in their paycheck, depending on the industry where they are employed.
Shirshikov added that if policies are reinstated starting in 2025, “we might see increased business expansion and job creation, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, construction, and technology.” He said this could lead to higher demand for skilled labor, potentially driving up wages in these industries.”
Read Next: What the Upper Middle Class Makes in Different US Cities
Regulatory Changes
Shirshikov made an educated guess that a “Trump administration may pursue deregulation across various sectors, particularly in energy, finance and manufacturing.”
This is something that has happened in the past, particularly with Republican candidates who end up becoming POTUS. Under former presidents George W. Bush, Bush Sr., and Ronald Regan, lots of American industries and labor unions were hit with restructuring or new configurations that affected the bottom line of workers.
“Deregulation can reduce operational costs for businesses, which might translate to increased hiring and potentially higher wages as companies seek to attract and retain employees,” Shirshikov pointed out.
Trade Policies
During his previous time in office, Trump and his administration found themselves deadlocked in a trading war with China, which impacted the American consumers’ ability to buy overseas products at a reasonable price. It also took a hit to the industries surrounding trade, such as shipping and freight.
“Trump’s approach to trade, characterized by tariffs and renegotiation of trade agreements, could impact salaries differently across sectors,” said Shirshikov. “Industries protected by tariffs might see growth and higher wages, while those dependent on global supply chains could face challenges, potentially suppressing wage growth.”
Inflation and Cost of Living
The price of everyday goods and services seems to be going up all the time — from gas to food and beyond — making it harder for the average American worker’s salary to keep up.
Inflation did drop in 2023 after topping 9% back in 2022, only to have now flatlined in the first half of 2024. While gas prices have gone down an average of 14 cents a gallon across the country, there could be new jumps and drops in basic cost of living items under a second Trump administration.
“Economic policies that stimulate growth can sometimes lead to inflationary pressures. If inflation rises, the cost of living would increase, necessitating higher wages to maintain purchasing power,” said Shirshikov. “However, if wage growth does not keep pace with inflation, real incomes could stagnate or even decline.”
Sector-Specific Impacts
Shirshikov highlighted that “different sectors will experience varying impacts based on policy changes” if Trump should again be elected president. The salaries within those specific job markets and industries might take a hit or see a bump.
“Technology and finance sectors, which benefit from tax cuts and deregulation, might see substantial salary increases,” Shirshikov described. “Conversely, sectors facing trade barriers or reduced federal support could see slower wage growth.”
More From GOBankingRates
This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 5 Predictions About Salaries in America in 2025 If Trump Wins the Election
