UPDATE 1-US natgas prices slide 2% on record output and mild weather

(Adds latest prices) By Scott DiSavino Dec 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday on record gas production and lowered forecasts for temperatures and heating demand next week that should allow utilities to keep pulling less gas from storage than usual through the end of December. Analysts forecast there was around 8.7% more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Still, record amounts of gas flowed to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts were lifted for gas demand this week. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.5 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $2.447 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). A lack of big price moves in recent weeks has cut historic or actual 30-day close-to-close futures volatility to 45.3%, the lowest since September 2021 for a second day in a row. Historic daily volatility hit a record high of 177.7% in February 2022 and a record low of 7.3% in June 1991. Historic volatility has averaged 71.0% so far this year, versus a record high of 92.8% in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 57.9%. Record production and ample gas in storage has weighed on futures prices for weeks, prompting some traders to forecast that prices this winter (November-March) have already peaked in November. Looking ahead, analysts project U.S. gas prices and demand will rise in coming years as new LNG export plants enter service in the U.S., Canada and Mexico to meet rising global usage of the fuel. But expected delays at Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass LNG export plant in Texas and Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines in Louisiana have caused some analysts to reduce their forecasts for U.S. gas demand and prices in 2024. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states rose to 108.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from a record 108.3 bcfd in November. Meteorologists projected the weather would remain warmer than normal through Jan. 1 before turning near normal from Jan. 2-4. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 126.0 bcfd this week to 120.4 bcfd next week when many businesses and government offices shut for the Christmas holiday. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico fell to an average of 3.9 bcfd so far in December, down from 5.6 bcfd in November and a record 7.0 bcfd in August. Analysts, however, expect exports to Mexico to rise in coming months once U.S. energy company New Fortress Energy's plant in Altamira starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into LNG for export in December. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.7 bcfd so far in December, up from a record 14.3 bcfd in November. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Dec 15 Dec 8 Dec 15 average Forecast Actual Dec 15 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -80 -55 -82 -107 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,584 3,664 3,337 3,297 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 8.7% 7.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.50 2.49 5.77 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.54 10.76 36.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 11.78 12.40 32.34 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 348 346 462 408 426 U.S. GFS CDDs 1 1 3 5 4 U.S. GFS TDDs 349 347 365 413 430 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2018-2022) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 108.9 108.7 108.8 98.6 94.2 U.S. Imports from Canada8 8.6 8.5 8.9 10.1 9.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Total U.S. Supply 117.5 117.2 117.6 108.7 103.5 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.1 3.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 3.8 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.0 U.S. LNG Exports 14.7 15.0 14.6 12.1 8.6 U.S. Commercial 13.8 13.9 12.8 20.4 14.6 U.S. Residential 22.3 22.3 20.4 35.6 24.7 U.S. Power Plant 34.1 34.6 32.8 34.9 28.6 U.S. Industrial 24.7 24.7 24.1 27.1 25.0 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 103.1 103.8 98.2 126.2 101.2 Total U.S. Demand 125.0 126.0 120.4 145.4 118.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 80 82 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 80 81 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 81 81 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Dec 22 Dec 15 Dec 8 Dec 1 Nov 24 Wind 11 11 12 10 11 Solar 3 3 3 3 3 Hydro 6 6 5 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 41 40 42 39 Coal 17 17 17 17 16 Nuclear 20 20 21 20 22 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.44 2.59 Transco Z6 New York 2.20 2.21 PG&E Citygate 3.97 3.97 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.85 1.94 Chicago Citygate 2.11 2.26 Algonquin Citygate 2.99 2.86 SoCal Citygate 3.60 3.30 Waha Hub 1.33 1.73 AECO 1.25 1.38 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 35.00 33.00 PJM West 37.75 43.25 Ercot North 17.25 15.00 Mid C 51.00 50.00 Palo Verde 43.00 50.25 SP-15 51.00 51.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Bernadette Baum and David Gregorio)