UPDATE 1-US natgas prices ease to one-week low on record output

(Adds latest prices) Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Tuesday to a one-week low, on record output and forecasts for mostly mild weather through the end of October. The amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increased. Still, front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.0 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $3.079 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Oct. 4 for a second day in a row. It was the contract's fifth daily decline. The last time that happened was December 2022. A lack of big price moves in recent weeks has cut historic or actual 30-day close-to-close futures volatility to 50.4%, the lowest since April 2022. Historic daily volatility hit a record high of 177.7% in February 2022 and a record low of 7.3% in June 1991. Historic volatility has averaged 75.2% so far this year, compared with a record high of 92.8% in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 57.9%. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 103.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 102.6 bcfd in September and a record high of 103.1 bcfd in July. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.3 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Pipeline exports to Mexico, however, slid to an average of 6.9 bcfd so far in October, down from a monthly record high of 7.2 bcfd in September. Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise in coming months once New Fortress Energy's plant in Altamira starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 13.5 bcfd so far in October with the return of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point export plant in Maryland, up from 12.6 bcfd in September. That compares with a record high of 14.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit 14.6 bcfd on Tuesday, the highest since April 2023. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar. Much higher global prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $15 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $18 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Oct 13 Oct 6 Oct 13 average Forecast Actual Oct 13 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 81 84 113 85 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,610 3,529 3,326 3,451 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 4.6% 4.8% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 3.11 3.11 6.08 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 14.78 15.03 38.37 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 17.72 18.29 32.98 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 137 130 150 147 164 U.S. GFS CDDs 37 35 27 40 32 U.S. GFS TDDs 174 165 177 187 196 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103.8 104.5 104.6 99.5 93.1 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.9 6.7 6.5 8.8 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 110.7 111.3 111.2 108.3 101.0 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 6.7 7.1 5.7 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 13.1 14.1 13.7 11.6 7.1 U.S. Commercial 6.2 6.7 7.2 8.3 7.0 U.S. Residential 6.5 7.6 8.6 10.7 7.5 U.S. Power Plant 30.8 30.9 30.6 30.9 30.1 U.S. Industrial 22.3 22.5 22.4 23.3 22.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 72.9 75.1 76.0 80.3 73.9 Total U.S. Demand 94.6 97.3 98.2 99.8 88.8 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day % 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 96 94 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 91 90 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 89 89 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Oct 20 Oct 13 Oct 6 Sep 29 Sep 22 Wind 13 10 11 8 8 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 5 5 Other 3 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 40 41 42 44 43 Coal 15 16 16 17 17 Nuclear 21 21 19 20 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.98 3.11 Transco Z6 New York 1.45 0.99 PG&E Citygate 8.00 4.60 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.25 0.83 Chicago Citygate 1.98 1.87 Algonquin Citygate 1.53 1.10 SoCal Citygate 10.70 9.92 Waha Hub 1.74 1.24 AECO 1.39 1.64 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 25.25 19.00 PJM West 54.50 39.00 Ercot North 20.00 23.00 Mid C 96.40 60.25 Palo Verde 57.25 44.50 SP-15 70.25 44.75 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Sharon Singleton and David Gregorio)