UPDATE 1-US natgas futures edge up on expectations of cold weather

(Adds quote, latest prices) Feb 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 0.2% on Monday, on hopes that winter might reappear, ending the downward spiral in prices despite forecasts for lower demand and rising output. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 0.3 cents, or about 0.1%, to settle at $2.082 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract settled at its lowest since April 13, 2023. "There are some weather models that are talking about another potential polar vortex somewhere around Valentine's day, and that's giving the market a little bit of life," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. "So even though we've seen some extremely above normal temperatures, the return of winter is stopping the free fall on prices." Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Feb. 15 before turning near normal on Feb. 16-17. Colder temperatures should boost heating demand in mid-February. For now, meteorologists expect the weather to remain warmer than normal. LSEG estimated 358 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, up from 333 HDDs estimated on Friday. The normal for this time of year is 408 HDDs. Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 105.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.0 bcfd in January. That was still below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in December. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 122.5 bcfd this week to 122.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.7 bcfd so far in February, down from 13.9 in January. That was still below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December. Analysts said U.S. LNG feedgas would likely not revisit record levels until Freeport LNG export plant in Texas returns to full power, which is expected to occur in mid- to late-February. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Feb 2 Jan 26 Feb 2 average Forecast Actual Feb 2 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -86 -197 -208 -193 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,573 2,659 2,397 2,336 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 10.1% 5.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2023 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.08 2.07 2.44 2.66 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 9.43 9.25 16.52 13.04 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 9.46 9.46 16.87 14.39 14.31 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 358 333 326 405 408 U.S. GFS CDDs 1 1 6 6 5 U.S. GFS TDDs 359 334 332 411 413 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2019-2023) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103.2 105.5 105.3 97.8 92.4 U.S. Imports from Canada 10.0 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Total U.S. Supply 113.2 114.8 114.6 107.1 101.7 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.5 3.5 3.5 2.1 2.7 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.9 6.0 6.3 5.6 5.2 U.S. LNG Exports 13.7 13.6 13.7 12.7 8.4 U.S. Commercial 18.2 13.9 13.4 19.2 16.3 U.S. Residential 30.9 22.7 21.5 33.1 27.6 U.S. Power Plant 38.7 30.2 31.6 34.5 29.3 U.S. Industrial 26.2 24.5 24.4 26.3 25.4 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.3 2.6 2.6 3.3 2.7 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 122.5 99.3 98.9 121.6 106.7 Total U.S. Demand 144.5 122.5 122.4 142.0 123.0 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Feb 2 Jan 26 Jan 19 Jan 12 Jan 5 Wind 7 10 14 8 9 Solar 3 2 2 2 2 Hydro 7 6 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 43 39 38 42 40 Coal 18 22 23 19 19 Nuclear 20 19 17 19 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.01 2.15 Transco Z6 New York 1.95 1.90 PG&E Citygate 3.25 3.46 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.76 1.75 Chicago Citygate 1.73 1.89 Algonquin Citygate 4.96 4.40 SoCal Citygate 2.64 2.82 Waha Hub 0.86 1.60 AECO 1.78 1.34 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 49.00 44.50 PJM West 21.75 19.25 Ercot North 11.50 17.00 Mid C 59.25 43.75 Palo Verde 25.50 30.50 SP-15 51.00 33.75 (Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)