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NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)
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Exxon reiterated 700k boe per day target by 2025 for Permian operations. Consistent long term growth for NGL.
Will NGL Energy announce a new contract and their largest acreage dedication yet before Christmas? If so, how much will this new contract positively impact fiscal 2022 earnings?
Let's see if Doug White, Executive Vice President in charge of NGL's Water Division can pull this off.
Zacks upgraded ngl to a #2 Buy because of increased earnings predictions
Kimbill bought 100k shares at $2.01!!
NGL has acquired 10 companies, including 3 in the last 5 years. A total of 5 acquisitions came from private equity firms. It has also divested 4 assets.
NGL’s largest acquisition to date was in 2013, when it acquired Gavilon for $3.6B. It’s largest disclosed sale occurred in 2018, when it sold NGL Propane to Superior Plus for $900M. NGL has acquired in 6 different US states. The Company’s most targeted sectors include utilities (34%) and energy services and equipment (23%). This is a big company with a lot of assets that was founded in 1940. Price is going to rise and dividends will be paid again.
Does anyone recall the restrictions on the payment of the Nov 2023 debt due? Can it be paid in advance to reduce the debt and interest? If not, what do they do with the free cash flow generated in the upcoming quarters? Reduce revolving line of credit?
Thanks for any clarifications!
Interesting how low this is getting again. Will we see a double bottom?
Good news for NGL Energy. Exxon Mobil selling shale assets in some parts of Texas to concentrate on production in the Permian Basin and other areas.
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil on Monday launched a sale of its oil and gas properties in the first major U.S. shale field [Barnett Shale], a spokesperson confirmed, as part of a portfolio reshuffling to focus on more lucrative assets.
Exxon... is selling assets in Asia, Africa and Europe as it as focuses on production ventures in Guyana, offshore Brazil and the Permian Basin.
One of the issues from the conference call that I particularly liked was the conservative estimates. What I mean by this is the positive developments that are not "baked in" to earnings projections that could have a significant, positive effect on earnings. Specifically:
1. The large acreage dedications in the Delaware. Of the very large potential acreage dedications, there are only 2 available to put under contract and NGL is looking to close one of them by year end. Merry Christmas.
In the words of Exec VP Doug White in charge of the water division:
"Dedications, we previously mentioned 2 large dedications in the Delaware that really are left on a large-scale basis. One of those dedications, we expect to be closed by calendar year-end this year."
Then Doug again when asked about water volumes:
"We also have this second -- this large dedication I mentioned, which is the largest acreage dedication that we have or will have in the Delaware Basin. That certainly adds volumes.."
2. The seismicity issue. According to Doug White:
"...the Railroad Commission of Texas has proposed a recent reduction and about 2 million barrels of permitted injection capacity in our operation area. There are no NGL assets negatively impacted by this. Our assets sit just outside of the risk area. But what this has resulted in is increased interest in NGL's available capacity. So it's a very good positive for the organization."
Tarek Hamid from JP Morgan asked:
"So just one question on the water business. You talked about some of the potential dedications as well as some of the potential ongoing changes in rules with seismology issues potentially being a beneficiary. How much of that have you baked into some of the numbers that you've talked to in the last half hour, both in '22 and beyond?"
Doug White answered:
“Terek, none of the forecasts that Mike presented include the benefit of these recent developments regarding seismicity.”
“We are actually moving towards some dedications related to the recent events, which are certainly beneficial, but our incremental, like I said, incremental to the forecast Mike provided..”
That is a lot of icing on the cake.
SHORT 200,000 NGL
l smell a ringer. How about someone mention the debt payments on the horizon or how this company doesn't manage or own itself, the creditors do. Hogtied and hamstrung by the debt ratio. Find infinity between 2.15 and 2.50. Also, no mention of the 15MM+ debt payments that are accumulating on the preferred shares.
Big day today.....retail investors will either be ecstatic over getting a clearer picture toward improvements in results, or very disappointed in the results and lack of clarity of management on the direction of the company's results. We know water is improving, we know the next 2 quarters are typically the best quarters in a Fiscal Year. We know they have continued ecological improvements and conservation.
Tell us something we don't know.....Open Season - ROI on Ambassador Pipeline ....debt restructuring....
I do not expect anything on dividend re-initiation - would be happy if they announce some additional investment which would generate $25m per quarter EBIDTA.....
Investment firms like Wells Fargo are still way too conservative on EBIDTA given the growth in water services and ready capacity which produces profit straight to the bottom line.
• Record quarterly Adjusted EBITDA of $87.4 million in the Water Solutions segment, a 43% increase versus the second quarter of Fiscal 2021
• Produced water volumes processed increased approximately 37% versus the same period in the prior year, with volumes growing approximately 94,000 barrels per day, or 5.6%, versus the preceding quarter
• Fiscal 2022 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $570 million - $600 million and expected full year capital expenditures of approximately $115 million2
Let the retail traders, who for some reason thought the distribution would be reinstated this quarter, sell this morning.
More importantly is how the analysts interpret the quarterly numbers and conference call.
I think those who follow NGL on a more long term basis can see that the unit price will be at least $10 by Feb. 2024. The unit price should rise significantly every quarter until then as numbers confirm management forecasts.
Hmmm. Preferred prices are doing well. For those of us who loaded up at 9 and 10, we actually see NGL as a massive profit maker. Either NGL is buying back ( did they announce) OR someone in mister market thinks either divies or conversion are around the corner. Which shall it be?
Omicron already causing some travel bans. Any large shutdown will kill the $1 distribution at $10 by Feb 2023 dream. I'm hoping for the best, but it might be time to look at Feb 2024 as the most likely distribution return date.
So apparently the larger recycling project got delayed into this quarter? I feel a heck of a lot better about $87mm EBITDA in water then. I was expecting a lot more recycled water sales and the resulting produced water from the wells. Instead we went from $13mm in water sales revenue down to $11mm.
"A large portion of our approach to that business is simply reselling produced water off of our pipeline system... Q1, we did just over 100,000 barrels per day. Q2, we had other projects going on. Those slipped into this quarter, Q3. We expect that to be evenly spread across Q3, Q4, but those demands are continuing to increase as producers continue to move toward a more sustainable approach to completions."
How is Krimbill honestly projecting $90mm out of water the next two quarters if they have produced water increases, big recycled water sales, and $10 higher per barrel skim oil? I still think there's a lot more growth in here.
I loaded another 4000 shares today, bring my total over 20,000 shares... will hold it for at least two years. i am a patient investor, can wait as long as NGL not getting bankrupt...
I think another couple of questions could include:
1.) Ambassador Pipeline was purchased with certain expectations - what were they and how will they translate to improved EBIDTA going forward?
2.) Improving the leverage ratio may be more easily affected by increasing EBIDTA through acquisition(such as Ambassador Pipeline) or new complementary services(carbon/methane capture, solar/wind)or utilization of current assets(land used for green energy and recycling). Anything on the radar that can be announced?
3.) Refinancing capabilities?
4.) Cost reductions under consideration while common shareholders are getting no benefit of being long but management gets hundreds of thousands of award shares in 2021, and certain preferred shareholders get $40 million? Perhaps selling corporate jets?
5.) FY2023 Outlook?
Krimbill picks up another 100K shares!
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