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CNX Resources Corporation (CNX)
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Great quarter, 1B added to share repurchase plan is incredible for a stock that has a 3.2B cap. If they fully repurchase holders will see a 33% earnings increase. That is on top of increased earnings due to higher Oil and NGas prices. Wow!
One of the largest mutual fund holders of CNX had this in their Q3 comments: If you had told us two years ago that CNX would 1) accretively buy in its pipeline assets to be the low cost player in the basin; 2) further lock-in FCF with hedges; 3) buyback a material amount of company shares to grow FCF/share power above $2; 4) finally see more E&P industry consolidation, we would not have expected a sub-$12 stock price. But now that gas prices are up, hedges are viewed by the market as a negative, and sellsiders struggle for a short-term “catalyst”. We expect CNX to create more catalysts and continue to take advantage of its dramatically undervalued stock price.
Only coal stock going up today . Why ?
I has not followed CNX closely. Could anyone give me a brief dump on why CNX is ramping up so dramatically while all other major NG producers are maintaining their productions? About 1 year ago, I listened to CNX's CC. The CEO said he would not grow production till long term strip is at least $3.5-4. My understanding of long term is at least 5 years and could be 10 years. In this case, we are not there yet. So what made him change his mind?
This just might be the most undervalued stock in ANY market
What percentage of CNX production is hedged for 2022 and at what price?
Let’s do some basic math here: CNX stated all in cost = $0.90-$1.00. Current and expected future gas price between $4.00-$5.00(2023 once hedges are updated). CNX steady production of 500b feet of gas annual. That means NET profit of $1.5 billion to $2 billion PER YEAR. Current estimates are for $500 million in net income.
Market cap for whole company today is only 3.1 billion….
This stock should triple if gas settles at $4 or quadruple if $5 holds. In two years that’s a fantastic return…..
Good earnings with stock purchases and the stock gets punished. This stock really didn't go up that much in the prior weeks either. This is a screaming buy
What happened to this one? Seems they had a decent quarter with more buy backs going forward. Maybe I'm missing something here? I don't follow the stock.
Slowly and surely investors will learn how undervalued this stock is with $4-5 long term gas prices.
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CNX Resources reached a 52 Week high at 16.05
Such a beautiful day. Do you guys think it is time to trim a little before day ends or keep holding?
Huge loss on derivatives coming in the next quarterly report. Will buy the sell off around $9-10 hopefully.
CNX wants to spend free cash flow on share buybacks. I prefer dividends. Question. Can the CNX executives that in my humble opinion less than honestly acquired my CNXM shares distribute these shares bought with my CNXM earnings to themselves as options and short/long term inventive compensation? If so, that is perfect. Slash CNXM dividend, stock tanks, buy all outstanding shares, makes CNX balance sheet look awesome, use free cash flow to buy shares that then give to the executives for strong free cash flow. The grift that keeps on giving. I would have preferred a poor family robbed me of my approximate 80 K than give it to CNX executives.
CNX had an interesting report out today regarding their PV-10 calcs. Long story short, their PV-10 value is back to where it was in 2017 after increasing $2B (thats right, Billion) in 2018. Hence issue is getting slammed today.
It's interesting because the important variables are price expected and total proved resources which are relatively predicable prior to the report.
Another aspect of this is to note what valuation CNX had in 2017 given the same PV-10 value. A look at the chart shows the stock price was nearly double what it is today and I happen to know that the share count is 25% less now. So as a ratio of evaluation to PV-10, CNX is more than 2x cheaper than it was in 2017.
Any opinions welcome.
Natural Gas price fluctuations mean very little to CNX. Almost all their 2021 and 2022 production is hedged and already sold.
They have successfully stolen a midstream that had a dividend and converted it into a company with no dividend. Win all around LOL. They successfully stole the company by dropping the distribution more than any other company did in the name of Covid so they could tank the price and take over the company. Insider trading is illegal, but this blatant nonsense is allowed every day.
Here's the trouble--it has to do with the coal spin-off of CEIX
From CNX 10-k filed on 2/10/20:
Indemnities that CNX may be required to provide CONSOL Energy are not subject to any cap, may be significant and could negatively impact our business. Third-parties could also seek to hold us responsible for any of the liabilities that CONSOL Energy has agreed to retain. Any amounts we are required to pay pursuant to these indemnification obligations and other liabilities could require us to divert cash that would otherwise have been used in furtherance of our operating business. Further, the indemnity from CONSOL Energy may not be sufficient to protect us against the full amount of such liabilities, and CONSOL Energy may not be able to fully satisfy its indemnification obligations. Moreover, even if we ultimately succeed in recovering from CONSOL Energy any amounts for which we are held liable, CNX may be temporarily required to bear such losses. Each of these risks could negatively affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
CEIX has 2 billion in liabilities as of their latest 10q--
CNX CEO's presentation is a snow job trying to convince shareholders to back off of the lawsuit based on futures delivering improved stock prices. Not going to happen. They drove the price down and stole the generous dividends of my CNXM. I want to be paid NOW for the lost value not in 7 years! Full steam ahead with the lawyers
Anytime we dip below 15 someone comes in hard and buys.
Gotta be Nick spending all the quarter’s FCF buying back shares.
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