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Why Is MPLX LP (MPLX) Down 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for MPLX LP (MPLX). Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MPLX LP due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

MPLX Q1 Earnings & Revenue Beat Estimates

MPLX reported first-quarter earnings of 91 cents per unit, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 83 cents. The bottom line also improved from the year-ago quarter’s 78 cents.

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Total quarterly revenues of $2,713 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,513 million. The top line improved from the prior-year quarter’s $2,610 million.

Segmental Highlights

MPLX’s adjusted EBITDA from the Logistics and Storage segment increased from $904 million a year ago to $1,026 million.  Higher pipeline tariff rates and throughput aided the segment. Total pipeline throughputs in the first quarter were 5.6 million barrels per day, up 6% from the year-ago period.

Adjusted EBITDA from the Gathering and Processing segment was $493 million, up from $489 million in the prior-year quarter. The segment was favored by increased gathering throughput volumes. Gathering throughput volumes averaged 3.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), reflecting a 6% rise from the year-ago period. Natural gas processed volumes of 6.3 Bcf/d marked a 2% increase.

Costs and Expenses

In first-quarter 2023, total costs and expenses of MPLX were $1,517 million, down from the year-ago quarter’s $1,550 million.

Cash Flow

Distributable cash flow attributable to MPLX in the quarter was $1,268 million, providing 1.6X distribution coverage, up from $1,210 million in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted free cash flow in the quarter under review increased to $1,005 million from $850 million in the corresponding period of 2022.

Balance Sheet

As of Mar 31, 2023, the partnership’s cash and cash equivalents were $393 million. Its total debt amounted to $20.4 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, MPLX LP has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, MPLX LP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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