Yahoo Finance Whitehaven Coal Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Shareholders might have noticed that Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to AU$7.13 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of AU$1.6b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 37% to hit AU$0.32 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Whitehaven Coal
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Whitehaven Coal's ten analysts is for revenues of AU$4.17b in 2024. This would reflect a solid 8.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 31% to AU$0.95 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$4.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.04 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$8.22, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Whitehaven Coal's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Whitehaven Coal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$11.40 and the most bearish at AU$6.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Whitehaven Coal's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 27% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 0.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Whitehaven Coal's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$8.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Whitehaven Coal going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Whitehaven Coal is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those make us uncomfortable...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
