USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Flex Its Muscles

INSIDER
China's true military spending in 2022 was likely worth $711 billion, or 'nearly equal' to the US military budget that year: US think tank
That's compared to a US military budget of around $742 billion that year, which was spread out across various theaters in the world.
Fortune
Analysts have long complained about fuzzy statistics from China. A proposed new statistics law shows Beijing is worried too
Economists and even Chinese officials have used their own pet statistics to better understand the world’s second-largest economy.
Fortune
It’s ‘just what the Fed chair wanted’ as the economy adds fewer jobs and unemployment rises to 3.9%
“For those grappling with renewed stagflation fears, this payrolls report supports what Powell said earlier this week about not seeing the ‘stag’ or the ‘-flation’ right now,” J.P. Morgan’s Elyse Ausenbaugh noted.
Reuters
Weak US productivity could threaten Fed's 'soft landing' hopes
Weaker U.S. productivity gains in the first quarter may challenge the Federal Reserve's efforts to finish its inflation fight without a painful rise in unemployment, potentially stalling progress on prices absent a further economic slowdown. A jump last year in how much workers produce helped the economy grow fast and hiring remain strong while inflation fell nonetheless. Data for the first three months of 2024, however, showed worker productivity rose at a 0.3% annual pace, compared to increases of more than 3% in the prior three quarters.
Sky News
Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further
Official figures have raised fears of a deepening public sector drag on the UK's economic recovery from recession. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, deteriorated between the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs - like salaries and government funding - that are needed to maintain those services.
The Telegraph
Interest rate cuts could switch ‘from stroll to a sprint’ after US jobs surprise
Traders have pulled forward their expectations for the first interest rate cuts in the US as the economy added fewer jobs than expected.
Reuters
Canada posts surprise trade deficit as gold exports fell in March
OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada in March recorded a surprise trade deficit of C$2.28 billion ($1.66 billion), the largest in nine months, as exports declined faster than imports, data showed on Thursday. Total exports fell 5.3% in March mainly due to exports of unwrought gold declining from a record high reached in February, while imports were down 1.2%, led by electronics and metal ores and non-metallic minerals, Statistics Canada said. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a trade surplus of C$1.50 billion in the month.
Reuters
India's foreign minister rejects Biden's 'xenophobia' comment
Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar rejected U.S. President Joe Biden's comment that "xenophobia" was hobbling the South Asian nation's economic growth, The Economic Times reported on Saturday. Jaishankar said at a round table hosted by the newspaper on Friday that India's economy "is not faltering" and that it has historically been a society that is very open. "That's why we have the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act), which is to open up doors for people who are in trouble ... I think we should be open to people who have the need to come to India, who have a claim to come to India," Jaishankar said, referring to a recent law that allows immigrants who have fled persecution from neighbouring countries to become citizens.
Reuters
Weaker US jobs data soothes Fed worries of renewed overheating
Federal Reserve officials, buffeted by concerns the economy might again overheat, got relief on Friday when jobs data for April showed a marked cooling in wage growth and a pace of hiring in line with levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. The gain of 175,000 payroll jobs last month was the lowest since October of 2023, while the 3.9% annual change in average hourly earnings was the smallest since May of 2021 and continued what has been a steady decline towards the mid-3% range which policymakers feel is consistent with their 2% inflation target. It was still a "solid" report in terms of the numbers of jobs generated, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, but more like the type of employment growth seen before the COVID-19 pandemic and therefore a boost to confidence that the economy is not again overheating.
Reuters Videos
Euro zone factory downturn takes turn for worse
STORY: The downturn in euro zone factory activity deepened in April.The closely watched manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 45.7 in April from 46.1 in March.It was the 22nd month in a row below the key 50 mark separating growth from contraction.The sector endured falling demand despite factories cutting prices.But the decline was inconsistent across the bloc.The situation got worse in France and Italy, but the sector moved closer to expanding in powerhouse Germany.Spain did particularly well - as activity expanded at its fastest rate in almost two years due to higher demand.An index measuring output rose slightly.But it does not look like an immediate turnaround is coming, as the new orders index fell to a four-month low.Factories depleted stockpiles of both purchased and final goods, and cut the size of their workforce for an eleventh month.Manufacturers also reduced prices again, fueling belief that the European Central Bank will reduce borrowing costs in June.The bloc's economy recovered last quarter from a mild recession.Official data out earlier in the week showed it expanded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter over January-March.
Reuters
US STOCKS-Wall St ends sharply higher, jobs data strengthens case for rate cuts
Wall Street surged to a higher close on Friday as a softer-than-expected employment report bolstered the case for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve while also providing evidence of U.S. economic resilience. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the pack, rising 2% with an assist from Apple shares following the iPhone maker's record share buyback announcement. All three indexes notched their second straight Friday-to-Friday gains, capping a week in which markets were encouraged by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's more dovish-than-expected statements following Wednesday's rate decision.
Reuters
WRAPUP 4-US job gains fewest in six months as labor market cools
U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and the increase in annual wages fell below 4.0% for the first time in nearly three years, but it is probably too early to expect that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates before September as the labor market remains fairly tight. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9% from 3.8% in March amid increasing labor supply.
Yahoo Finance Canada
Weak loonie? These TSX stocks could gain strength, says RBC
It says Canadian stocks that tend to generate more earnings from the U.S. span the technology, media, financial, healthcare, industrial, and forest product sectors.
Reuters
CORRECTED-WRAPUP 2-Weaker US jobs data soothes Fed worries of renewed overheating
Federal Reserve officials, buffeted by concerns the economy might again overheat, got relief on Friday when jobs data for April showed a marked cooling in wage growth and a pace of hiring in line with levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. The gain of 175,000 payroll jobs last month was the lowest since October of 2023, while the 3.9% annual change in average hourly earnings was the smallest since May of 2021 and continued what has been a steady decline towards the mid-3% range which policymakers feel is consistent with their 2% inflation target. It was still a "solid" report in terms of the numbers of jobs generated, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, but more like the type of employment growth seen before the COVID-19 pandemic and therefore a boost to confidence that the economy is not again overheating.
Reuters
FOREX-Dollar drops as employers add fewer jobs than expected in April
The dollar fell to a three-week low against the yen on Friday after data showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and annual wage gains cooled, boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates two times this year. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, still staying below 4% for the 27th straight month. “The data's soft across the board from the Fed's perspective," said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede in Philadelphia.
Reuters
US job gains fewest in six months as labor market cools
U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and the increase in annual wages fell below 4.0% for the first time in nearly three years, but it is probably too early to expect that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates before September as the labor market remains fairly tight. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9% from 3.8% in March amid increasing labor supply. Signs of labor market cooling raised optimism that the U.S. central bank could after all engineer a "soft-landing" for the economy and doused chatter of stagflation, which had been fanned by news of a sharp moderation in economic growth and a surge in inflation in the first quarter.
USA TODAY
Jobs report today: Employers added 175,000 jobs in April, unemployment rises to 3.9%
U.S. employers added 175,000 jobs in April. Unemployment rose to 3.9%
Reuters
US labor market still tight; productivity falters in first quarter
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market that should continue to underpin the economy in the second quarter. Economists largely shrugged off other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showing growth in worker productivity almost stalled in the first quarter, noting that the trend in productivity remained solid. At face value, the sharp slowdown in productivity and accompanying surge in labor costs would raise concerns about inflation pressures building up as well as profit margins being squeezed, which would impact demand for labor.
Reuters
Euro zone bond yields headed for weekly fall after Powell comments, await US data
Euro zone yields dropped on Friday ahead of U.S. jobs data and were headed for a weekly fall after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested rate cuts remained on the table, soothing fears of a possible hike by the U.S. central bank. Money markets are pricing in 70 basis points (bps) of European Central Bank monetary easing in 2024 , and 39 bps for the Fed. Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, fell 2.5 bps to 2.53% and was set to end the week 5 bps lower.
Benzinga
Suze Orman Says You Should Ditch Your Budget This Year Or Else You May 'Explode'
Personal finance expert Suze Orman compares restrictive budgets to crash diets and explains why you should ditch your budget in 2024. Orman’s advice may seem unconventional, but Orman, an expert in finance who hosts the podcast "Women & Money (and Everyone Smart Enough to Listen)," disagrees with strict budgets. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Orman said she hates budgets and compared them to crash or fad diets that are doomed to fail. Don't Miss: If the United States had access to

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USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Flex Its Muscles

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Latest stories

China's true military spending in 2022 was likely worth $711 billion, or 'nearly equal' to the US military budget that year: US think tank

Analysts have long complained about fuzzy statistics from China. A proposed new statistics law shows Beijing is worried too

It’s ‘just what the Fed chair wanted’ as the economy adds fewer jobs and unemployment rises to 3.9%

Weak US productivity could threaten Fed's 'soft landing' hopes

Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further

Interest rate cuts could switch ‘from stroll to a sprint’ after US jobs surprise

Canada posts surprise trade deficit as gold exports fell in March

India's foreign minister rejects Biden's 'xenophobia' comment

Weaker US jobs data soothes Fed worries of renewed overheating

Euro zone factory downturn takes turn for worse

US STOCKS-Wall St ends sharply higher, jobs data strengthens case for rate cuts

WRAPUP 4-US job gains fewest in six months as labor market cools

Weak loonie? These TSX stocks could gain strength, says RBC

CORRECTED-WRAPUP 2-Weaker US jobs data soothes Fed worries of renewed overheating

FOREX-Dollar drops as employers add fewer jobs than expected in April

US job gains fewest in six months as labor market cools

Jobs report today: Employers added 175,000 jobs in April, unemployment rises to 3.9%

US labor market still tight; productivity falters in first quarter

Euro zone bond yields headed for weekly fall after Powell comments, await US data

Suze Orman Says You Should Ditch Your Budget This Year Or Else You May 'Explode'