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Trump? Hillary? Does It Matter?
We are slightly more than one month away from the all-important US Presidential Election! Aren’t you excited? Huh? What has it got to do with us?
Yes, we are all too used to having a one-party system here so nothing really excites us, isn’t it? No matter who and how we choose, we’ll always have the Men In White eh?
In the US, it is different! They have two – two dominant parties taking turns to either have their own people taking the office in the White House and/or the Senate and/or the House of Representatives. And having their own political manifestos, agendas and whatever you want to call them, the campaigning period is one that offers voters an insight into what the candidate can and may offer when he or she becomes the President of the United States of America!
Politicians, being politicians, are fond of political rhetoric or, in layman’s term, talk poultry! In our favourite Kopitiam, everyone knows that politicians are fond of a certain kind of poultry and the language that they speak. It will be beneath, and insulting to, our intelligence to believe every word they say.
So when politicians, who sometimes engage in popular politics, promise you the world or swear that they will spank the buttocks of your nemesis, do take it with a pinch of salt.
Donald Trump
According to Wikipedia, “Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American businessman, television personality, author, politician, and nominee of the Republican Party for President of the United States in the 2016 election. He is chairman of the Trump Organization, which is the principal holding company for his real estate ventures and other business interests.
Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign has received extensive media coverage and international attention. Many of his statements in interviews, on Twitter, and at campaign rallies have been controversial or false. Several rallies have been accompanied by protests or riots.
Trump’s positions include renegotiation of US–China trade deals, opposition to particular trade agreements such as the TPP, stronger enforcement of immigration laws together with building a wall along the US–Mexico border, reform of veterans’ care, replacement of the Affordable Care Act, and tax cuts.
During the primary, Trump called for a temporary ban on all Muslim immigration to the United States, later stating that the ban would focus instead on countries with a proven history of terrorism until the level of vetting can be raised to screen out potential terrorists.”
Do you want this man as the US President??!!
He wants to spank the buttocks of China, which is bad for Singapore; he opposes to trade agreements such as the TPP, which is also bad for us; and, well, he is simply bad for us according to my crystal coffee glass. Most importantly, Trump behaves like some leader of a country nearer to home – Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines – a flamboyant and reckless figure!
Hillary Clinton
According to Wikipedia, “Hillary Clinton (born October 26, 1947) is an American politician and the nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States in the 2016 election. She served as the 67th United States Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013, the junior United States Senator representing New York from 2001 to 2009, First Lady of the United States during the presidency of husband Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001, and First Lady of Arkansas during his governorship from 1979 to 1981 and from 1983 to 1992.
Not from a business background, Hillary Clinton has the advantage of being in the White House while her husband Bill was the President. Furthermore, her stint as a Senator and Secretary of State will give her an added advantage when it comes to the polls – a key positive that Americans can identify with.
Fine, some may argue that she has bad press and she’s a known devil, but aren’t we all far too familiar with the saying “better to deal with the known devil than the unknown angel”?
I’m rooting for Hillary not because she will boost the stock market, but more so because Donald Trump does not fit the image of a national leader that Asians, especially Singaporeans, are accustomed to.
Who Cares About Who Wins?!
But it really does not matter who wins or loses because the US stock market will chalk up gains by the time the new President is halfway through his or her first term. Why? Did you read my column two issues ago? Go read it. It has got to do with stock market history. History is important because history repeats itself and humans are fond of making the same mistakes!
So even if Donald Trump wins, the stock markets may correct but I’ll be more than happy for that to happen. I, we , everybody can buy cheap! We can assume that stock markets will rally once Hillary is confirmed for the oval office, but really?
The stock market is a naughty creature; the stock market is fickle and; the stock market springs surprises all the time! So when the majority expects something to happen, the opposite tends to occur and vice versa.
More importantly, we know that the American Congress – made up of the Senate and the House of Representatives – is a highly politicised arena that divides along partisan politics. If they were to have a Republican President and a Democrat-controlled Congress, then it spells trouble because American politics will, and have been proven to be, fall into disarray.
Too much political bargaining and posturing are not good for a country hence, ideally, investors would prefer an America that has a President and the Congress from the same party (no, please don’t tell me that it is undemocratic) elected by the American electorate.
Whoever wins and does not deliver on his or her promise is, well, very normal. Why would you trust politicians when you jolly well know that all sorts of promises can be broken? So what if Donald Trump promises to be tough on China, Asia and immigrants? I will bet my last dollar on Trump shaking the hands of Xi Jinping once the former becomes the US President. This is being practical. Similarly, you do not reject free Kopi or beer even when it is offered free of charge to you by someone you do not really like!
Keep Calm And Eat Popcorn (and Kopi, of course)
Just stay calm and watch everybody do a preview on who will win, what if he won and what if she won! Relax and sip your Kopi, eat some popcorn! It really does not matter because a rally after the results is announced will not last too long while a correction presents a buying opportunity.
Just like the Brexit polls, you will have ample time to follow the live results before taking any action. So, really, no need to worry about who will win.
