Yahoo Finance How the Tax Cut Affects Investors
If life's two certainties are death and taxes, what happens when certain taxes are put to death and investors are asked to live with it?
Oh, the uncertainties.
The issue of the tax cut's fallout on Wall Street has pundits, shareholders and those waiting to make their first play wondering what's next. And while the anticipation is punch bowls for everyone, the new law raises three crucial questions: which sectors benefit most, what investors take home and how companies choose to utilize their financial windfalls.
If you're trying to figure all that out, you might want to heed the words of Benjamin C. Halliburton, chief investment officer at Tradition Capital Management in Summit, New Jersey: "No tax cut or reform is identical, so I think it's a bit of stretch to try and extrapolate."
It might not be a stretch, though, for the tax cut to obfuscate.
"In general this tax legislation should serve to stimulate U.S. economic growth," says Joe Heider, president of Cirrus Wealth Management in Cleveland. That said, "The U.S. economy is very complex, which is why there undoubtedly will be unintended consequences to sectors of our economy."
[See: 7 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2018.]
One thing's for sure. Accounting firms will scramble to digest the biggest tax law change in some three decades. But some tax experts don't expect nearly as much gyration in the investment sphere. Industry veteran Stanley Foodman, owner Foodman CPAs and Advisors in Miami, foresees no immediate impact.
"Because of artificially low interest rates, the stock market has been artificially inflated as an easily accessed investment of last resort," Foodman says. "So unless interest rates remain low -- and publicly traded corporations report profits miraculously and significantly improved, despite the weak retail sector dragging against them -- I don't expect a material tax cut effect."
But if you think you can just take a wait-and-see attitude, try telling that to your spreadsheet. Personal Capital's recent Affluent Investor Outlook Report finds that 46 percent of investors list "not properly tax-optimizing their portfolio" as one of their top financial concerns. For 2018, one in four (24 percent) list tax-optimizing their investment strategy as their top financial goal.
On signing the bill, the president praised the likes of Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) and Wells Fargo & Co. ( WFC) for pledging employee bonuses and higher wages. But the Republican-backed tax plan will definitely have one consequence -- unintended or otherwise -- that didn't make the sound bites on Capitol Hill.
That is, some companies won't use the money to create new jobs so much as pamper existing employees -- or reward investors with increased dividends, for example. The latter might infuriate those who already opposed the bill to begin with, but bear in mind pubic companies hear loud complaints from shareholders when they don't share the wealth.
Now in theory, corporations that hire new personnel and dole out bonuses give people more money to invest, including through stock purchase plans and company matches on 410(k)s. But that assumes among other things the companies plan to retain and attract workers in the first place -- especially if the future is headed toward artificial intelligence.
In other words, more money means more investment in the kind of robotic tech that makes human labor obsolete.
The tax cut "doesn't necessarily mean companies will uniformly increase headcount with increased capital availability," says Michael Carrazza, founder and CEO of Solaia Capital Advisors and Chairman and CEO of Patriot Bank, based in Stamford, Connecticut. "Headcount growth will be company- and management-specific."
One conservative commentator sees banks as a big winner -- an outcome that will compound if the Federal Reserve, as expected, raises interest rates several times this year.
[See: 7 ETFs to Profit From GOP Tax Cuts.]
"Pre-tax cut, banks had the highest tax burden," says Christopher Metzler, a global strategist and serial entrepreneur. Citing statistics from KBW Research, he says that "JPMorgan Chase ( JPM), Wells Fargo and Bank of America ( BAC) are most likely to experience 20 percent or more jump in profits since the corporate tax rate is lowered."
Yet there's some hand wringing in equities -- if not from the tax cut then the political climate in general. ACG New York, an association of middle-market deal making professionals, has just released survey results where respondents express lowered expectations of the Trump administration having a positive impact on private equities: 44 percent say the current government has had no impact, while 7 percent call the effects negative or very negative.
Commercial real estate could also experience some pain.
"I remain very concerned about the overall implications of the legislative tax cuts on the U.S. economy, and particularly for commercial real estate," says Brian Ward, CEO of Trimont Real Estate Advisors, a global real estate loan servicer and construction loan asset manager.
While Ward acknowledges it's possible the tax cuts will benefit the CRE industry by spurting economic growth on the supply and demand side, "the more likely outcome is a dramatic increase in the U.S. debt burden, which will then adversely pressure the long end of the yield curve." He cites the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note as susceptible "to dramatic and rapid upward movements."
Then there arises the possibility of lukewarm lateral movement.
"Don't mistake my opinion here, I think making U.S. companies more competitive globally is important -- however, the tax overhaul is very stimulative at a time when it's unclear we needed it," says Mark Stoeckle, CEO of Adams Funds, which has offices in Baltimore and Boston.
And so questions remain, including a certain million-dollar question -- or whichever dollar amount you like, depending on the size of your portfolio and the market cap of your favorite company.
[See: 10 Investing Themes to Remember for 2018.]
Stoeckle says: "Should we have waited, kept our powder dry, on corporate tax reform? There is certainly an argument to be made."
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