Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1183+0.0001
AUDUSD=X0.7761+0.0001
USDJPY=X120.1655+0.0105
EURJPY=X134.3820+0.0187
GBPUSD=X1.5362+0.0001

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3658+0.0003+0.02%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5273+0.0003+0.02%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0978+0.0002+0.01%
    GBPSGD=X
    87.9792-0.0142-0.02%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6779-0.0016-0.03%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.6595+0.0004+0.01%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,515.3037-2.0996-0.02%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.5934-0.0006-0.01%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0601+0.0004+0.04%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,220.00+6.90+0.57%
    GCJ15.CMX
    16.74+0.18+1.10%
    SIK15.CMX
    75.26-1.68-2.18%
    ^XAU
    2.71+0.02+0.65%
    HGK15.CMX
    49.23-0.53-1.07%
    CLJ15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.58+0.07
    ^FVX
    2.08+0.08
    ^TNX
    2.68+0.09
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.945-0.030-3.08%
    N21.SI
    0.400.00-1.23%
    E5H.SI
    0.280.000.00%
    5WA.SI
    0.975-0.010-1.02%
    G13.SI
    4.24+0.02+0.47%
    Z74.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.184+0.072+64.29%
    A59.SI
    0.225+0.035+18.42%
    5WD.SI
    0.142+0.020+16.39%
    5IF.SI
    0.34+0.04+13.33%
    543.SI
    0.445+0.045+11.25%
    5FQ.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.117-0.148-55.85%
    F3V.SI
    0.385-0.095-19.79%
    A7S.SI
    0.345-0.085-19.77%
    T4B.SI
    0.30-0.05-14.29%
    Y06.SI
    0.12-0.02-13.04%
    T77.SI