Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.07680.00
AUDUSD=X0.7599-0.0003
USDJPY=X119.70500.00
EURJPY=X128.8975-0.0008
GBPUSD=X1.4829+0.0002

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3630-0.0002-0.02%
    USDSGD=X
    1.4677-0.0002-0.02%
    EURSGD=X
    2.02120.000.00%
    GBPSGD=X
    87.8254+0.0136+0.02%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6880+0.001+0.02%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.6938+0.0005+0.02%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,510.9639+1.7139+0.02%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.5474+0.0005+0.01%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0358-0.0005-0.05%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,203.70-4.50-0.37%
    GCM15.CMX
    16.94-0.12-0.70%
    SIK15.CMX
    68.90+3.40+5.19%
    ^XAU
    2.750.00-0.07%
    HGK15.CMX
    49.55+1.95+4.10%
    CLK15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.33-0.05
    ^FVX
    1.87-0.07
    ^TNX
    2.47-0.07
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.188+0.005+2.73%
    A50.SI
    0.2850.0000.00%
    5WA.SI
    0.915-0.005-0.54%
    N21.SI
    0.785+0.020+2.61%
    Y92.SI
    0.415-0.010-2.35%
    E5H.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.19+0.05+35.71%
    5RC.SI
    0.42+0.09+27.27%
    5UL.SI
    0.42+0.07+21.74%
    5DS.SI
    0.152+0.016+11.76%
    K2P.SI
    0.127+0.011+9.48%
    V69.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.141-0.029-17.06%
    40B.SI
    0.092-0.013-12.38%
    A18.SI
    0.13-0.02-12.16%
    L10.SI
    0.495-0.055-10.00%
    TI6.SI
    0.112-0.011-8.94%
    B32.SI