Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.0933+0.0003
AUDUSD=X0.7289-0.0002
USDJPY=X124.1650-0.03
EURJPY=X135.7459+0.0007
GBPUSD=X1.5597-0.0002

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3753-0.0004-0.03%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5034-0.0003-0.02%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1451-0.0008-0.04%
    GBPSGD=X
    90.3042+0.0265+0.03%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6374+0.0011+0.02%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.7848+0.0008+0.03%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,828.5527+2.999+0.03%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.5144+0.0012+0.03%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0022-0.0008-0.08%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,087.80-0.60-0.06%
    GCV15.CMX
    14.740.00-0.03%
    SIZ15.CMX
    46.64-1.73-3.57%
    ^XAU
    2.40+0.01+0.25%
    HGG16.CMX
    48.55+0.03+0.06%
    CLU15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.62+0.01
    ^FVX
    2.27-0.01
    ^TNX
    2.95-0.03
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.52-0.07-11.86%
    N21.SI
    0.320.00-1.54%
    E5H.SI
    0.139+0.003+2.21%
    5DN.SI
    0.310.00-1.59%
    5WA.SI
    0.915+0.035+3.98%
    5ME.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.199+0.049+32.67%
    5MQ.SI
    0.45+0.09+25.00%
    K1Q.SI
    0.65+0.09+16.07%
    L5I.SI
    0.295+0.035+13.46%
    PA3.SI
    0.445+0.050+12.66%
    42C.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.38-0.11-22.45%
    AZT.SI
    0.128-0.018-12.33%
    5TJ.SI
    0.52-0.07-11.86%
    N21.SI
    0.16-0.02-11.11%
    AVX.SI
    0.39-0.05-10.34%
    5I3.SI