Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1487-0.0012
AUDUSD=X0.7456-0.0029
USDJPY=X106.9850-0.09
EURJPY=X122.9277-0.1978
GBPUSD=X1.4497-0.0037

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3582+0.0056+0.41%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5602+0.0049+0.32%
    EURSGD=X
    1.9689+0.003+0.15%
    GBPSGD=X
    78.7910-0.3743-0.47%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7151-0.0241-0.42%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9638+0.016+0.54%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,849.7979+40.5479+0.41%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.7810-0.0188-0.39%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0126+0.0003+0.03%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,281.50-10.30-0.80%
    GCM16.CMX
    17.41-0.09-0.51%
    SIN16.CMX
    83.27-3.96-4.54%
    ^XAU
    2.18-0.04-1.62%
    HGN16.CMX
    43.91+0.26+0.60%
    CLM16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.24-0.02
    ^FVX
    1.78-0.02
    ^TNX
    2.64-0.02
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.425-0.005-1.16%
    N21.SI
    0.785-0.020-2.48%
    G13.SI
    3.76-0.07-1.83%
    Z74.SI
    0.385-0.005-1.28%
    E5H.SI
    0.730.000.00%
    Y92.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.48+0.08+20.00%
    BFK.SI
    0.194+0.019+10.86%
    D79.SI
    0.28+0.03+9.80%
    BHO.SI
    0.185+0.015+8.82%
    AYL.SI
    0.50+0.04+8.70%
    BQP.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.088-0.082-48.24%
    P74.SI
    0.30-0.09-23.08%
    Y06.SI
    0.125-0.027-17.76%
    5MQ.SI
    0.21-0.05-17.65%
    Y35.SI
    0.31-0.04-11.43%
    AWK.SI