Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1193-0.0091
AUDUSD=X0.7559-0.0056
USDJPY=X101.8100+1.272
EURJPY=X113.9600+0.524
GBPUSD=X1.3136-0.0051

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.129+0.001+0.78%
    N21.SI
    1.855-0.040-2.11%
    MC0.SI
    2.84+0.02+0.71%
    C52.SI
    4.22-0.05-1.17%
    Z74.SI
    0.58-0.01-1.69%
    5TP.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.29+0.08+38.10%
    5VI.SI
    0.36+0.07+22.03%
    BPF.SI
    0.192+0.030+18.52%
    AYD.SI
    0.27+0.04+17.39%
    BLU.SI
    0.40+0.05+14.29%
    BFK.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.205-0.055-21.15%
    BTJ.SI
    0.34-0.06-15.00%
    BCD.SI
    0.39-0.06-13.33%
    AYB.SI
    0.31-0.04-11.43%
    5VP.SI
    0.24-0.02-9.43%
    BAZ.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3582+0.0051+0.38%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5196-0.0071-0.47%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7809-0.0034-0.19%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.6820+0.437+0.59%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7047-0.0235-0.41%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9663+0.0023+0.08%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,748.1885-70.3965-0.72%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9062-0.0141-0.29%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0263-0.0043-0.42%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,324.00-0.60-0.05%
    GCZ16.CMX
    18.63+0.14+0.76%
    SIU16.CMX
    95.80-0.72-0.74%
    ^XAU
    2.080.00+0.10%
    HGU16.CMX
    47.29-0.04-0.08%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.24+0.08
    ^FVX
    1.63+0.06
    ^TNX
    2.30+0.03
    ^TYX