Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1007+0.0015
AUDUSD=X0.7526+0.0057
USDJPY=X104.3060-1.514
EURJPY=X114.8140-1.51
GBPUSD=X1.3088-0.005

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3583-0.0028-0.21%
    USDSGD=X
    1.4950-0.0013-0.09%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7776-0.0099-0.55%
    GBPSGD=X
    76.7570-0.93-1.20%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7085+0.0135+0.24%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9928-0.0063-0.21%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,682.3887+32.7715+0.34%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9171+0.0115+0.23%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0223+0.0054+0.53%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,319.10-0.40-0.03%
    GCQ16.CMX
    19.69+0.04+0.22%
    SIU16.CMX
    99.89-3.85-3.71%
    ^XAU
    2.210.00-0.11%
    HGU16.CMX
    43.19+0.06+0.14%
    CLU16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.14+0.02
    ^FVX
    1.570.00
    ^TNX
    2.290.00
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.485+0.045+10.23%
    5TP.SI
    0.1680.0000.00%
    N21.SI
    1.035+0.030+2.99%
    Y92.SI
    0.79-0.01-1.25%
    G13.SI
    3.16-0.02-0.63%
    C31.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.38+0.05+15.15%
    BFU.SI
    0.29+0.03+13.73%
    S71.SI
    0.445+0.050+12.66%
    BHU.SI
    0.23-0.04-14.81%
    BQN.SI
    0.485+0.045+10.23%
    5TP.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.19-0.03-13.64%
    BDN.SI
    0.16-0.02-9.60%
    O08.SI
    0.50-0.05-9.09%
    AWZ.SI
    0.106-0.010-8.62%
    BEH.SI
    0.161-0.014-8.00%
    AWS.SI