Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.3836+0.0005
AUDUSD=X0.9276+0.0014
USDJPY=X102.2230-0.0505
EURJPY=X141.4295-0.0321
GBPUSD=X1.6812+0.0011

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.2572-0.0009-0.07%
    USDSGD=X
    1.7395-0.0007-0.04%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1137-0.00010.00%
    GBPSGD=X
    81.3049+0.0128+0.02%
    SGDJPY=X
    6.1672+0.0045+0.07%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.6009+0.0025+0.10%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,232.6309-23.3955-0.25%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9745+0.0076+0.15%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.1662+0.001+0.08%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,293.80+3.20+0.25%
    GCM14.CMX
    19.56-0.13-0.65%
    SIK14.CMX
    91.62-1.25-1.35%
    ^XAU
    3.11-0.01-0.27%
    HGK14.CMX
    101.33-0.61-0.60%
    CLM14.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.74+0.03
    ^FVX
    2.690.00
    ^TNX
    3.460.00
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    2.22+0.010+0.45%
    JS8.SI
    0.119-0.004-3.25%
    B22.SI
    1.155+0.005+0.43%
    U6C.SI
    1.275+0.060+4.94%
    S53.SI
    1.335-0.020-1.48%
    G13.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.21+0.020+10.53%
    F86.SI
    0.22+0.020+10.00%
    E94.SI
    0.167+0.015+9.87%
    5HH.SI
    0.116+0.010+9.43%
    O2I.SI
    1.315+0.084+6.82%
    O9A.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.145-0.009-5.84%
    5GD.SI
    0.15-0.009-5.66%
    5EL.SI
    0.151-0.009-5.63%
    A03.SI
    0.30-0.015-4.76%
    K29.SI
    1.05-0.050-4.55%
    T14.SI