Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.11140.00
AUDUSD=X0.75170.00
USDJPY=X122.8750+0.06
EURJPY=X136.5633+0.0667
GBPUSD=X1.55710.00

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3457-0.0002-0.02%
    USDSGD=X
    1.4957-0.0003-0.02%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0955-0.0004-0.02%
    GBPSGD=X
    91.3060+0.0616+0.07%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7610+0.001+0.02%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.8150+0.0005+0.02%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,933.5156+1.8623+0.02%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.6120+0.0009+0.02%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0116-0.0002-0.02%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,167.80+4.30+0.37%
    GCQ15.CMX
    15.70+0.09+0.56%
    SIZ15.CMX
    62.65+1.28+2.08%
    ^XAU
    2.62-0.01-0.53%
    HGU15.CMX
    55.52-1.41-2.48%
    CLQ15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.65-0.06
    ^FVX
    2.39-0.02
    ^TNX
    3.190.00
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.156-0.009-5.45%
    5DN.SI
    0.300.000.00%
    5WA.SI
    0.189+0.001+0.53%
    5MC.SI
    0.865+0.015+1.76%
    N03.SI
    0.4150.0000.00%
    E5H.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.55+0.09+20.88%
    BAJ.SI
    0.515+0.075+17.05%
    AWV.SI
    0.215+0.031+16.85%
    AZR.SI
    0.22+0.03+15.79%
    AZT.SI
    0.54+0.06+12.50%
    AWZ.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.06-0.06-50.00%
    5TW.SI
    0.09-0.03-25.00%
    40R.SI
    0.31-0.09-22.50%
    AVW.SI
    0.10-0.02-15.25%
    5I1.SI
    0.33-0.05-13.16%
    5UL.SI