Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.3808-0.0007
AUDUSD=X0.9345+0.0013
USDJPY=X102.5450+0.125
EURJPY=X141.6115+0.1101
GBPUSD=X1.6804+0.0003

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.2526+0.0002+0.02%
    USDSGD=X
    1.7296-0.0006-0.03%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1050+0.0009+0.04%
    GBPSGD=X
    81.8843+0.102+0.12%
    SGDJPY=X
    6.1902-0.0018-0.03%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.5951+0.0096+0.37%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,117.5479-1.3145-0.01%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9694-0.001-0.02%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.1706+0.0018+0.16%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,286.10-7.80-0.60%
    GCM14.CMX
    19.36-0.24-1.20%
    SIK14.CMX
    89.32-0.86-0.95%
    ^XAU
    3.04-0.01-0.20%
    HGK14.CMX
    103.64+0.27+0.26%
    CLM14.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.71-0.02
    ^FVX
    2.69-0.03
    ^TNX
    3.49-0.03
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.113-0.002-1.74%
    B22.SI
    0.135+0.010+8.00%
    545.SI
    2.190.0000.00%
    JS8.SI
    0.605-0.005-0.82%
    E5H.SI
    0.143+0.004+2.88%
    5GB.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.255+0.040+18.60%
    5UE.SI
    0.345+0.045+15.00%
    5DS.SI
    0.18+0.020+12.50%
    T16.SI
    0.19+0.016+9.20%
    540.SI
    0.138+0.011+8.66%
    J74.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.17-0.030-15.00%
    5WD.SI
    0.118-0.014-10.61%
    S71.SI
    0.123-0.013-9.56%
    5FI.SI
    0.20-0.020-9.09%
    D6U.SI
    0.29-0.025-7.94%
    O08.SI