Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1252+0.0043
AUDUSD=X0.7028-0.0082
USDJPY=X119.8845-1.3505
EURJPY=X134.8900-1.0084
GBPUSD=X1.5307-0.0038

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.4124+0.0006+0.04%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5889+0.0064+0.40%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1619-0.0045-0.21%
    GBPSGD=X
    84.9756-0.9001-1.05%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.4872-0.0024-0.04%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9555-0.0103-0.35%
    SGDMYR=X
    10,004.9619+56.9541+0.57%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.5064-0.01-0.22%
    SGDCNY=X
    0.9940-0.0097-0.97%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,142.10+9.60+0.85%
    GCZ15.CMX
    14.60+0.01+0.10%
    SIZ15.CMX
    48.06-0.36-0.75%
    ^XAU
    2.32-0.02-0.96%
    HGZ15.CMX
    47.10-2.10-4.27%
    CLV15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.51-0.03
    ^FVX
    2.18-0.02
    ^TNX
    2.94+0.01
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.128-0.002-1.54%
    5DN.SI
    0.315+0.005+1.61%
    5WA.SI
    0.52-0.03-4.59%
    N21.SI
    3.71-0.03-0.80%
    Z74.SI
    0.70-0.02-2.78%
    5ME.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.20+0.02+11.11%
    5G1.SI
    0.22+0.02+10.00%
    AZR.SI
    0.22+0.02+7.32%
    5FL.SI
    0.79+0.05+6.76%
    41E.SI
    0.128+0.008+6.67%
    PH0.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.25-0.06-18.03%
    578.SI
    0.205-0.045-18.00%
    5NF.SI
    0.158-0.033-17.28%
    L02.SI
    0.112-0.021-15.79%
    40U.SI
    0.205-0.030-12.77%
    R14.SI