Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.11150.00
AUDUSD=X0.71850.00
USDJPY=X110.2300-0.045
EURJPY=X122.5262-0.05
GBPUSD=X1.46220.00

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3799+0.0005+0.03%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5338+0.0005+0.03%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0177+0.0007+0.03%
    GBPSGD=X
    79.8826-0.0587-0.07%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6286-0.0018-0.03%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9651-0.0002-0.01%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,841.6572-3.2139-0.03%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.7582-0.0015-0.03%
    SGDCNY=X
    0.9915+0.0003+0.03%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,215.30-7.40-0.61%
    GCQ16.CMX
    16.25-0.09-0.57%
    SIN16.CMX
    79.41-2.71-3.31%
    ^XAU
    2.11+0.01+0.40%
    HGN16.CMX
    49.56+0.08+0.16%
    CLN16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.39+0.04
    ^FVX
    1.85+0.03
    ^TNX
    2.65+0.02
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.305-0.005-1.61%
    N21.SI
    0.895+0.010+1.13%
    Y92.SI
    0.735+0.025+3.52%
    G13.SI
    3.93+0.07+1.81%
    Z74.SI
    1.0050.0000.00%
    C22.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.245+0.030+13.95%
    F86.SI
    0.255+0.025+10.87%
    PA3.SI
    0.275+0.025+10.00%
    K29.SI
    0.335+0.030+9.84%
    F03.SI
    0.62+0.05+7.83%
    BMA.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.405-0.120-22.86%
    AWE.SI
    0.22-0.04-15.38%
    BKZ.SI
    0.55-0.10-15.38%
    N0Z.SI
    0.455-0.075-14.15%
    BJE.SI
    0.145-0.019-11.59%
    5G1.SI