Risk Trends Disengage, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Yen Crosses on Their Own

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.08050.00
AUDUSD=X0.77840.00
USDJPY=X118.9150-0.025
EURJPY=X128.4936-0.027
GBPUSD=X1.49450.00

We have to look beyond the fresh, five-year highs on the S&P 500 to garner a real sense of risk trends. Correlation across different risk-sensitive assets (equities, commodities, treasuries, carry interest) is one of the best measures of underlying sentiment's influence on the market - and such a catalyst also happens to carry the most trend potential. That said, we aren't seeing a risk push nor a solid trend development forming behind the broader markets.

Despite the lack of a 'risk' influence on recent price action, a number of my trades were effected by the unique developments. My EURUSD short (1.3325) was the only outright loss as it reversed just a few pips short of my first target and hit my 1.3385 stop (-60). I still think this pair has considerable potential, but I'd rather doubt the upside against a possible risk trend reset. Perhaps if there is a clear euro bullish push or the dollar falls apart, I will consider a trade above 1.3400; but for now, I await 1.3250.

Another euro exposure that I held was the EURNZD short (1.5930) which I had already taken profit on the first half for +130 and subsenquently trailed my stop. Following the flag formation, I kept pulling up my stop which was hit for +90. My GBPJPY short (143.00) had similarly tripping its stop yesterday on the huge yen tumble with a breakeven on the second half, but I am comforted by the +125 first half take.

Currently, I have two trades left. My GBPUSD short (1.5985) is a play on a big trendline break, but follow through has been so far tempered. Risk aversion would help considerably here, but its persistent, low hold is encouraging - my stop is at 1.6090. My other trade is a reduced-size USDCHF long (0.9350, stop: 0.9200). Whether the franc continues to drop or the EURCHF reverts to its 'sync' level, there will be upside pressure on USDCHF. I will build it up if its retraces to a better level (0.9250).

There are other trade opportunities in AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPNZD and others; but they are unlikely to setup before the weekend.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3461-0.0002-0.02%
    USDSGD=X
    1.4545-0.0003-0.02%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0117-0.0004-0.02%
    GBPSGD=X
    88.3437-0.00220.00%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7589+0.0009+0.02%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.6986+0.0005+0.02%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,534.5762+1.748+0.02%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.6030+0.0009+0.02%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0477-0.0002-0.02%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,204.70+5.80+0.48%
    GCQ15.CMX
    16.23-0.06-0.36%
    SIK15.CMX
    70.95+0.05+0.07%
    ^XAU
    2.78+0.01+0.22%
    HGK15.CMX
    57.73-0.38-0.65%
    CLM15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.290.00
    ^FVX
    1.85-0.03
    ^TNX
    2.50-0.05
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.2350.0000.00%
    5GB.SI
    0.290.000.00%
    5WA.SI
    0.199+0.001+0.51%
    5OU.SI
    0.205+0.024+13.26%
    B0Z.SI
    0.885+0.010+1.14%
    N21.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.205+0.024+13.26%
    B0Z.SI
    0.117+0.013+12.50%
    41S.SI
    0.78+0.08+11.43%
    AUE.SI
    0.49+0.05+11.36%
    UV1.SI
    0.199+0.018+9.94%
    K22.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.141-0.023-14.02%
    5RC.SI
    0.186-0.029-13.49%
    5TS.SI
    0.139-0.016-10.32%
    5MD.SI
    0.235-0.025-9.62%
    ACW.SI
    0.105-0.010-8.70%
    J8O.SI