Yahoo Finance PCE/Core PCE Numbers Came In Line With Expectations
Pre-market futures are sunnier this morning. After seeing shadows in economic data related to the dreaded “stagflation” dynamic, Personal Income Expenditures (PCE) numbers for March look to have assuaged a bit of those fears this morning. Pre-market futures are up across the board: +106 points on the Dow, +45 points on the S&P 500 and +195 on the Nasdaq immediately following this important data’s release.
Personal Income for March came in at +0.5%. This is in-line with expectations, though 20 basis points (bps) higher than the previous month’s unrevised +0.3%. The other side of this metric is Personal Spending, which was a tad hotter than expected at +0.8%, which is in-line month over month. Real Personal Spending was also a bit warmer at +0.5%, which is the highest monthly print since January of 2023. While these numbers are slightly more inflationary than expected overall, they are not out of the range of reasonable expectations.
The month-over-month PCE Index (deflator) was in-line with estimates, +0.3%. This is also the figure we saw for February, unrevised. (PCE data incorporates other economic data from earlier in the month, and as such is less likely to have big revisions month by month.) PCE year over year came in at +2.7%, 10 bps higher than anticipated and definitely above the +2.5% posted for the previous month. To see a higher print, you would need to go back to October of last year.
Core deflator was also +0.3% — in-line with expectations and the prior print. Core year over year was again 10 bps higher than projected to +2.8%, in-line with the unrevised previous month. So while we see progress on inflation having become stagnant — in this and other economic data out this month — these are far from the fearful numbers yesterday’s data seemed to allude to. Bond yields have adjusted downward slightly on this news.
AbbVie (ABBV) shares are up moderately on its Q1 beats. Earnings of $2.31 per share amounted to a +2.2% positive surprise from the $2.26 anticipated (though still 15 cents below the year-ago number). The pharma major has not missed on earnings since Q4 of 2018. Revenues of $12.31 billion topped expectations by +2.65% for the quarter. Shares of AbbVie are up +8% since the start of the year, and +0.7% since the Q1 release has come out.
ExxonMobil (XOM), on the other hand, is down -2% on its Q1 misses this morning. Earnings of $2.06 per share came in shy of the $2.19 in the Zacks consensus (and well off the $2.83 per share reported a year ago). Revenues of $83.03 billion was light the $86.60 billion expected and $86.56 billion in Q1 2023. Lower natural gas prices and upstream production were only slightly offset by higher price realizations. Shares are still up +15% year to date.
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