Moderna (MRNA) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this biotechnology company have returned -17.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.2% change. The Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, to which Moderna belongs, has gained 1.7% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Moderna is expected to post a loss of $3.26 per share, indicating a change of -162.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -54% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of -$2.67 points to a change of -113.3% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -9.7%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of -$3.47 indicates a change of -29.9% from what Moderna is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.9%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Moderna is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For Moderna, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $769.97 million indicates a year-over-year change of -83.8%. For the current and next fiscal years, $7.38 billion and $6.93 billion estimates indicate -61.7% and -6.2% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Moderna reported revenues of $1.86 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -69.3%. EPS of $0.19 for the same period compares with $8.58 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.16 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +60.08%. The EPS surprise was +110.73%.
Over the last four quarters, Moderna surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Moderna is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Moderna. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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