Yahoo Finance MGP Ingredients (NASDAQ:MGPI) shareholders YoY returns are lagging the company's 8.3% three-year earnings growth
It hasn't been the best quarter for MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 15% in that time. But over three years, the returns would have left most investors smiling In fact, the company's share price bested the return of its market index in that time, posting a gain of 23%.
In light of the stock dropping 6.1% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.
View our latest analysis for MGP Ingredients
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, MGP Ingredients achieved compound earnings per share growth of 27% per year. The average annual share price increase of 7% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on MGP Ingredients' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, MGP Ingredients' TSR for the last 3 years was 25%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
MGP Ingredients shareholders are down 20% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of MGP Ingredients by clicking this link.
MGP Ingredients is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
