A Look At The Fair Value Of AngloGold Ashanti plc (NYSE:AU)

Key Insights

• AngloGold Ashanti's estimated fair value is US$22.33 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• AngloGold Ashanti's US$18.01 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

• Analyst price target for AU is US$21.08 which is 5.6% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of AngloGold Ashanti plc (NYSE:AU) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for AngloGold Ashanti

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$339.0m	US$421.0m	US$482.4m	US$535.0m	US$579.5m	US$617.3m	US$649.6m	US$677.9m	US$703.3m	US$726.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 14.59%	Est @ 10.90%	Est @ 8.32%	Est @ 6.51%	Est @ 5.24%	Est @ 4.36%	Est @ 3.74%	Est @ 3.30%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%	US$313	US$360	US$381	US$391	US$392	US$386	US$375	US$362	US$347	US$332

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.6b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$726m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.3%) = US$13b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$13b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)¹⁰= US$5.8b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$9.4b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$18.0, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AngloGold Ashanti as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.276. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for AngloGold Ashanti

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.

• Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

• Dividends are not covered by earnings.

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For AngloGold Ashanti, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should further research:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with AngloGold Ashanti .

2. Future Earnings: How does AU's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.